Garment Export Is Expected To Maintain 8%-10% Growth In 2014

By China Spin The China international textile fabrics and accessories (Chun Xia) exposition, sponsored by the Federation of industry, was opened yesterday at the Expo exhibition hall. It is the first largest textile accessories exhibition in the world to move to Shanghai in the first place in. Xu Yingxin, executive vice president of the textile industry branch of the China Council for the promotion of international trade at the exhibition, said that with the revival of European economy and the acceleration of export to ASEAN, China textile industry this year. clothing Exports are still expected to achieve moderate growth in 8%-10%.

It is reported that from the beginning of this year, based on Shanghai's commercial advantages and Exhibition hardware facilities, Intertextile fabric exhibition in spring and autumn two seasons will be held in Shanghai. The spring and Summer Exhibition, which opened yesterday, has gathered more than 1400 exhibitors from 23 countries and regions, with an exhibition area of 50000 square meters. Next year's exhibition will also move to the China Fair and Exhibition complex in Hongqiao business district. The scale of the spring and Summer Exhibition will be further expanded to 100 thousand square meters.

The development momentum of the exhibition also reflects the export situation of the textile and garment industry to a certain extent. "The economic indicators of China's textile and garment industry in 2013 are better than expected, and the overall growth has reached two digits." According to Xu Yingxin's presentation at yesterday's exhibition, the export growth of textile and garment industry in 2013 was 11.4%, significantly better than that in 2012.

He pointed out that on the one hand, because of the obvious signs of recovery in the US market, on the other hand, exports to ASEAN last year increased by more than 40%. ASEAN has surpassed Japan to become the third largest market of textile and clothing exports in China.

He said that from the export situation in January this year, the European economy has passed the lowest stage, and the market has begun to recover. At the same time, the diversification strategy of domestic export enterprises is also gradually starting to work. Exports to emerging markets such as Russia, Turkey and Brazil are starting. The overall situation of textile and clothing exports this year is "cautiously optimistic", which can maintain 8%-10%'s medium speed growth. However, relative to Southeast Asia, the cost advantage of China's textile and garment industry has been gradually lost, coupled with frequent technical trade measures, textile and garment industry exports have been difficult to reproduce "blowout" development.

Xu Yingxin also said that textile and garment exports accounted for only 20% of the output of the same industry in China, and 80% of the products actually supplied the domestic market. Therefore, the development of textile and garment industry needs to rely on domestic demand. "The growth rate of textile and garment industry in China is only 10%, not strong." Xu Yingxin pointed out that the structural adjustment and industrial upgrading of the industry will be the key to growth.

Careful investors found that since the beginning of the year, the total position of Zheng cotton has been increasing. With the withdrawal of purchasing and storage policy, the cotton market will enter the market and further increase its volatility. The market has good expectations for Zheng cotton's later vitality, and the long sleepy Zheng cotton futures will be "waken up".

Withdrawing from storage policy, cotton prices will go to market.

The state has closed its stores for three consecutive years, leaving the domestic market out of touch with the international market, and the Zheng cotton market has lost its vitality. At the end of March 2014, the cotton purchase and storage work in 2013 will be concluded. In 2014, the state will implement direct subsidy policy in Xinjiang. The change of policy will change the pattern of cotton market. First, the iron price of the purchase and storage price will be lost, and the cotton price will return to the market. Finally, it will be decided by the supply and demand game. Second, the domestic and foreign cotton price differentials will return. Since 2012, the price difference has been maintained at 3000 yuan / ton, the highest even exceeding 5000 yuan / ton. Under the background of global integration, this is seriously deviated from the law of value. In the futures market, that is, the factors that affect the price fluctuation will increase. Any factor that will affect the economic situation, market sentiment and supply and demand will have a price on the left and right sides. Undoubtedly, the vitality of cotton futures will be strengthened, and the customers and investment funds of the cotton industry will be reopened.

In the inventory environment, the reserve price becomes a new pressure level.

Three years of open acquisition has made the national treasury "full of cotton". In the year of 2011, the total price of 19800 yuan / ton was about 3 million 250 thousand tons. In the 2012 year, the total price of 20400 yuan / ton was about 6 million 500 thousand tons. In the 2013 year, although the storage and storage in the 2013 year ended, the total reserves were expected to exceed 6 million 300 thousand tons. As a result, the total reserves exceed 16 million tons. In the meantime, the amount of dumping and storage (up to now) is about 4 million 800 thousand tons. Simple calculation shows that the net storage volume exceeds 11 million tons. Coupled with the original stock of the state treasury and the imported cotton purchased annually by the state, the existing cotton reserves in the State Reserve are close to the domestic consumption for two years.

The storage capacity and financial pressure brought about by reserve cotton are also one of the important reasons why the country no longer continues to open and store. Relevant departments have indicated that in the coming years, inventory will be the main. In 2014, the state will strictly control the issuance of import quotas, and the market gap will be borne by the national cotton reserves. Therefore, the placing price of cotton reserves will become an important pressure spot in the market. At present, the state has put cotton into the market at auction price of 18000 yuan / ton, and the demand business is only auctions on demand. After the new cotton is listed, the price center of gravity will move further down, and it will be difficult to raise 18000 yuan / ton. At present, the market has been rumored that the latter will lower the dumping price and match the import quotas.

Under the market mechanism, cotton prices may directly lead to production costs.

Global cotton supply is loose, inventories are running at a record high and state reserves are high. In such a bad environment, domestic cotton prices may fall directly to production cost lines or even lower. The author roughly estimated that the cost of planting the contracted households in Xinjiang last year was 2300 yuan / mu, and the production cost of lint was about 11000 yuan / ton according to the average yield of 600 kg, the average lint percentage 39%, and the processing cost of 900 yuan / ton. In other words, if the market is not good, cotton prices may fall to 11000 yuan / ton. Of course, this is the worst prediction. But it also illustrates the problem that under the market mechanism, the fluctuation of cotton prices will increase. In the preceding paragraph, we expect cotton prices to exceed 18000 yuan / ton in 2014, and cotton prices fluctuate by 7000 yuan / ton.

To sum up, changes in the direction of the national policy of the new year will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of cotton, and Zheng Mian futures, which remain silent for a long time, will "wake up". Judging from the huge inventory and weak demand in China, cotton prices are likely to fall and rise. Cotton processing enterprises must pay close attention to the opportunity to sell insurance at the later stage.

In February 28th, it was hosted by the industrial transfer office of the China Federation of textile industry, the Chongqing Textile Industry Federation and the government of Hechuan District of Chongqing. Clothes & Accessories Science and Technology Creative Industrial Park Management Co., Ltd. hosted the "2014 China Textile and industrial transfer western forum" with the theme of "building the commanding heights of industrial transfer" in Hechuan. The participants visited the Western costumes science and Technology Creative Industrial Park in Hechuan and gave a high evaluation of the park's design and planning.

This forum summarizes the situation of the westward shift of China's textile industry and analysis of the problems, providing experience and constructive advice for textile and garment enterprises to cope with environmental changes and optimize the allocation of industrial resources. At the same time, the forum also focused on and predicted the core issues affecting the westward shift of the textile industry in 2014, thus providing policy reference and strategic recommendations for government decision-making departments and enterprises to plan for 2014. At this forum, the China Textile Industry Federation issued the "2013 development trend of China's textile industry and the 2014 trend forecast report" and the "2013 annual report on the textile industry transfer".

As an important part of the forum, the conference also invited some domestic experts to conduct thematic dialogues to discuss how to innovate and promote the industrial linkage between East and West and achieve industrial transfer. The Hechuan Industrial Park has carried out an interactive discussion on the advantages and disadvantages of other western industrial parks as well as the opportunities and challenges of the textile and garment industry transfer, which has inspired new ideas for local governments and enterprises to invest in.

The Western costume science and Technology Creative Industry Park, as a demonstration base for Chongqing to undertake the eastern industrial transfer, has adhered to the industrial cluster area as the first development platform from the planning of the project. In accordance with the principles of "project concentration, industrial cluster, resource intensive, functional integration, production and urban integration and distinctive features", efforts have been made to improve service function, perfect agglomeration mechanism, promote enterprise's centralized layout, industrial cluster development, intensive utilization of resources and construction of function collection, so as to provide a way and platform for industrial development.