Pressure On The A Share Market To Be So Weak

Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen stock index and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index hit a 9 month low. A shares The pattern of breaking down is presented. Although the second half of the week has been somewhat stable, the overall weak market structure has not yet been effectively changed. Analysts generally believe that the pressure on the market is mainly due to the following factors:

First, the macro data released in January and February show that the "three carriages" driving the economy are all weak. Although exports made a good start in January, the export growth rate in February changed immediately, down 18.1% compared with the same period last year, a 4 year low.

Second, the capital side is facing challenges. Last Tuesday and Thursday, the central bank carried out 200 billion yuan repo in the open market. The 28 day period replaced the 14 day varieties and gradually extended the capital freeze period. Last week, the open market funds returned to 40 billion yuan, and the funds returned for five weeks after the Spring Festival. The relatively loose capital mobility since the beginning of this year will usher in the first test this year at the end of March.

Third, the Ukraine incident intensified, and overseas market turbulence, commodity crash and super day debt default played a role in fueling the already weak stock market.

Fourth, as the global economy epitomizes the BDI index, the recent sharp rise and fall is also affecting the market nerves. For example, March 13th plunged by 8% compared with the previous day, the biggest decline in the past 6 years. Since then, BDI has been rising since February 4th, up to 1580 at March 12th, reaching nearly 50%.

Despite the bad news market It has brought great impact, but there are still some positive factors.

First, with the disappearance of seasonal factors, the possibility of economic growth will be stabilized. First, the key construction projects, shantytowns, and so on have been started. Demand for steel and cement is also picking up. The performance of cement listed companies in the first quarter of this year is expected to rebound sharply. At the same time, information consumption, community consumption and other new consumption patterns are gradually releasing larger potential space, and consumption keeps stable. In particular, the reform of state-owned enterprises, the establishment of private banks, etc., after the "two sessions", the reform dividend will continue to release, which will help reduce financing costs and improve production efficiency, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of enterprises.

Second, although the central bank achieved a net return of 40 billion yuan last week, it is the single weekly minimum after the Spring Festival. The 14 day repo rate hit a 3 year low, indicating that the capital side is still relatively abundant. As the economy continues to decline and inflation is untroubled, monetary policy will continue to maintain a neutral loose pattern, which will contribute to economic growth and will help the market. At the same time, the direction of invigorated stock has not changed. Investors' expectations of lowering interest rates and raising interest rates have increased.

Third, the media revealed that the preferred stock pilot management approach is expected to be introduced soon, it is expected that the official issuance will be implemented in the second half of the year. company We are ready to start issuing after the release of the pilot management method. The positive anticipation of the preference shares has triggered some funds to supplement, and the financial and power shares have been shown after the continued killing. The two barrels of oil also have obvious support at the critical moment, which, to a certain extent, blocked the room for the callback of the stock index. At the same time, the reform of state-owned assets with mixed ownership as the main line has already begun, and it will also form a huge positive support for the large cap stocks.

This shows that the current market's positive news and bad news are the same, leading to the short term trend of A shares is still unclear. Some analysts pointed out that the market will continue to fight and retreat, stop and go way to continue the difficult "bottom trip" until the front to see the dawn of hope.