The Renminbi Is Out Of The Market And The Market Has Cooled Down.

In March 19th, the State Administration of foreign exchange (hereinafter referred to as the "foreign exchange bureau") released data showing that in February 2014, the bank settled 890 billion 400 million yuan (US $145 billion 700 million), and sold RMB 610 billion 800 million yuan (US $99 billion 900 million), with a surplus of 279 billion 600 million yuan (45 billion 700 million US dollars) in the foreign exchange settlement and sales. All the indexes narrowed sharply compared with January. The scale of foreign exchange settlement narrowed by 39%, the scale of foreign exchange sales narrowed by 21%, and the surplus in foreign exchange settlement contracted considerably.

Liu Dongliang, micro-blog financial analyst at China Merchants Bank, analyzed the data of the first financial daily in February. Compared with January, the indexes in the foreign exchange settlement and sale of foreign exchange decreased significantly. On the one hand, they were related to the trade deficit in February. On the other hand, they were also restrained by the inflow of arbitrage funds. However, he also said that the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sale was far beyond that of foreign exchange, and it still remains to be announced by the central bank [micro-blog].

The first financial daily correspondent statistics show that the settlement data in February was the lowest since June last year, but because the settlement of foreign exchange in China's banks was basically based on the settlement of foreign exchange, the reason for the sharp narrowing of the settlement scale in February was the sharp decline in the settlement of foreign exchange settlement. Compared with the previous month, the size of the bank's own settlement increased.

Foreign exchange bureau data also showed that in February, the bank settled 857 billion yuan in foreign exchange, sold 576 billion 500 million yuan in foreign exchange, and posted a surplus of 280 billion 500 million yuan in terms of foreign exchange settlement and sales. The bank settled itself in 33 billion 400 million yuan, sold 34 billion 200 million yuan in foreign exchange, and 900 million yuan in foreign exchange settlement, while in January, the bank made a settlement of RMB 12198 billion RMB, selling foreign exchange 753 billion 900 million yuan, and selling foreign exchange surplus by 465 billion 800 million yuan.

"In line with expectations, since February. RMB Continuous devaluation is a shock to the settlement of foreign exchange, and the holding of US dollar will be strengthened. The arbitrage funds will be significantly reduced after being hit by the depreciation of the RMB. There are even signs that some of the funds have been outflowing into China. In addition, the current account deficit in February also led to a decrease in the scale of settlement. A foreign bank analyst analyzed the first Financial Daily reporter.

On the other hand, with the current period Settlement data Compared with January, there is not much difference between the February bank settlement and the forward settlement of banks. In February, the data of bank settlement and sale also showed that the long-term settlement of foreign exchange was signed by 250 billion 300 million yuan, 111 billion 300 million yuan in forward sale and 139 billion yuan in forward net settlement.

"Generally speaking, Forward settlement and foreign exchange business It enables enterprises to lock in the exchange rate of future settlement or sale in advance, that is, when the foreign exchange income occurs, the exchange rate will be settled according to the exchange rate stipulated in the forward settlement contract. In the case of a significant depreciation of the renminbi, the net settlement of foreign exchange has not yet declined significantly, indicating that there is still an appreciation expectation for the renminbi in the future. In fact, although the depreciation rate of RMB is relatively large, the expectation of RMB appreciation in the 1 year NDF does not decline significantly. Yu Rui holds investment macro strategy analyst Li Qilin to our reporter.

On the same day, the foreign exchange bureau data also showed that in February, the bank's foreign-related income amounted to 13852 billion yuan (equivalent to 226 billion 600 million US dollars), and the external payment was 13020 billion yuan (equivalent value of $213 billion), and the foreign exchange payment surplus was 83 billion 100 million yuan (equivalent 13 billion 600 million US dollars), compared with the corresponding data in January.

"Foreign currency payment by banks" refers to the receipts and payments made by non-financial institutions through domestic banks and non resident institutions. The main reason for the decrease in the foreign payment receipts of domestic banks is that domestic banks' income from foreign clients has dropped significantly, while external payments have increased, mainly due to the trade gap in February. On the one hand, exports in February declined due to seasonal factors after the holiday, and on the other hand, large quantities of commodities were imported in February. Li Qilin said.