TRF Multi Head Explosion Damaged $3 Billion 500 Million

< p > "I have never seen such a rapid change in price."

< /p >

More than 10 a.m. on March 18th, Mr. Mo arrived at Niu Ping Street in Hongkong to find a replacement shop as usual and remitted his first day of P.

Because of frequent business dealings with the mainland, Mr. Mo usually selects several trusted banks and financial institutions to deal with his money.

Niu Ji is one of them.

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< p > "I remember very clearly that the exchange rate at that time was 10 thousand Hong Kong dollars to 7930 yuan, that is 1 to 0.793, because I was 0.02 higher than the previous day, I quickly changed the 1 million Hong Kong dollars in my hands."

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Less than P, however, it was this hasty decision that cost him 3000 yuan.

An hour later, when he turned back to central cleverly street from central, he saw that the selling price of Hong Kong dollars to RMB changed to 0.796.

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At P, it was the Central Bank of China (micro-blog) announcing the second day that the fluctuation range of RMB against the US dollar increased from 1% to 2%.

Perhaps it is because of the status of Hongkong's largest offshore renminbi market, perhaps because of the link between the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar.

In the Hongkong market, the impact of the yuan seems far greater than that in the mainland.

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< p > < strong > break through 6.20, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > TRF < /a > multi head burst warehouse < /strong > /p >

< p > as a former clerk of the foreign exchange and precious metals department of Hongkong Dafu securities, Xiao Guang (a pseudonym) is more concerned about the exchange rate of RMB than Mr. Mo mentioned earlier. After Haitong Securities acquired Tai Fu, he left his former employer.

Today's identity is a career investor. In other words, it's a professional speculator.

< /p >

In P circles, even in Guangzhou's circle, he was the first speculator to reach the "target redemption forward contract" of Renminbi derivatives.

This product, called TRF, has a leverage ratio of 2 to 3 times.

However, some radical speculators are willing to choose the 5 times TRF of the investment bank.

< /p >

< p > Xiao Guang chose TRF with a leverage of 2 times, with a value of 100 thousand dollars.

Because for a speculator like him and having some experience, controlling risk is the top priority.

< /p >

P, but even so, Xiao Guang also suffered heavy losses.

In March 20th, when the reporter interviewed him on the phone again, the voice on the phone was a bit dismayed. "Two days lost half, many stops were not able to come out at all."

< /p >

< p > most of the defensive lines of TRF RMB in Hongkong market are 6.20. In March 18th and March 19th, TRF bears had repeatedly hit the 6.20 mark, but they failed.

"The most thrilling thing is at noon on March 19th. When the paction was light, the empty bear rushed to 6.199, only a step away from 6.20, but at that time it was still there."

Xiao Guang said.

< /p >

< p > a Hongkong investment bank asset management director told reporters that 6.15 to 6.20 is the cost section of most TRF RMB long in Hongkong. If it falls below this interval, investors will be ordered to add margin or close positions by banks.

"Therefore, 6.20 can not be lost, otherwise it will cause a large number of bulls and buy dollars."

< /p >

The defense line of P long was finally broken in midday on June 20th.

Within a short span of 10 minutes, a surge of stop dollar purchases weighed down the offshore renminbi against the US dollar to 6.23.

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< p > "the middle price of the mainland central bank has no guiding role in investment."

Xiao Guang said that for a long time, friends around him, including him, were willing to refer to the central bank's central bank Price issued by the foreign exchange trading center.

"At that time, the middle price rose, the Hongkong market was basically up and down, and the Hongkong market was basically falling, but now it is the opposite."

Between words, Xiao Guang missed the time when investment was plain sailing.

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< p > the reporter consulted the data released by the foreign exchange management center, and found that the RMB exchange rate between the mainland and the foreign currency actually deviated from the price of the offshore market in Hongkong.

In March 17th, for example, the renminbi opened sharply in the offshore market, but the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rose to 6.1321, and the central parity of RMB against the Hong Kong dollar rose to 0.78954.

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< p > according to Morgan Stanley, since 2013, investment banks have sold $350 billion worth of TRF, and in recent years, investors have lost about 3 billion 500 million dollars due to the continued depreciation of the renminbi.

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< p > TRF is actually a more complex tool. The publisher usually designs the contract term for 12 months or 24 months, and sets a "strike price" which is lower than the spot price and a "protective price" far from the spot price, and the execution price is one month against the offshore fixed price.

In other words, if the RMB continues to appreciate, the purchase contract will have a monthly income. The faster the appreciation of RMB, the buyer will be able to reach the fulfillment price in a shorter time, stop the contract and get the proceeds.

If the exchange rate falls below the "protective price", the buyer needs to bear unfixed losses.

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< p > < strong > false trade > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > arbitrage < /a > loss" /strong > /p >

< p > it is understood that these two methods have been popular in China and investors have made a lot of money.

Dr. Morgan, director of the Guangdong Yu Yuan Jing Mao lawyer, who has provided services for overseas investment banks such as J.P. chase, believes that the arbitrage of RMB is mainly based on the expectation of the unilateral appreciation of the renminbi.

He told reporters, "I once had a case of foreign investment, and he invested 1 million dollars in the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar. When he divestment, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has risen to more than 6 points, and the RMB of 8 million yuan has changed to $8 at once."

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< p > however, this is just a normal foreign investment.

Overseas funds can also enter domestic arbitrage through two covert ways, one is false trade, the other is false investment.

< /p >

< p > "the case of a false investment I had originally handled was that the overseas inflow of about $10 million came into the mainland to invest in the way of equity contribution to register the company, and then when it was liquidated, it changed the renminbi into US dollars to remit it back, and earned about 2000000 dollars in one trip."

He Peihua said.

"However, it is difficult to cash in the renminbi in a more stringent regulatory area like Shanghai."

< /p >

< p > compared with false investment, the success rate of false trade arbitrage is much higher.

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< p > He Peihua revealed to reporters a very concealed false trade mode: arbitrators first chose a foreign bank with branches in Hongkong and the mainland. The mainland partners deposited 100 million yuan into the Bank of the mainland, then issued a deposit pledge by the bank, and loaned the corresponding US dollar in the Hongkong branch.

After that, Hongkong's collaborators registered local affiliates for cross-border trade. The mainland companies exported 100 million of the goods to Hongkong company. The contract was issued by Hongkong company. Mainland arbitrators could get remittances on the grounds of "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "offshore remittance" /a, and then repay the loan and earn interest rates.

< /p >

< p > "usually, in order to prove the existence of trade to the regulators, they will choose some cheap goods to deal with, and more often, the goods are not pferred at all."

He Peihua said.

"Sometimes they will choose some land to be mortgaged."

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< p > "this is also an objective reason why the previous a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "> foreign trade data < /a > distortion.

Xu Xiaxiong said.

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< p > however, because of the sharp fall in the RMB exchange rate, even the false trade arbitrage also suffered heavy losses.

The director of the asset management department of the investment bank told reporters that in the past 1 years, the intermediate cost of RMB arbitrage was around 6.10, and arbitrage holders could still accept the RMB exchange rate because they could still enjoy the real interest rate of close to 5% at home and abroad, and if the yuan continued to fall 3%, their losses would be even more severe.

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< p > there are also market participants who believe that the fall of the renminbi is related to market supply and demand.

"In February, the increase in foreign exchange held by financial institutions dropped from 437 billion 366 million yuan in January to 128 billion 246 million yuan, a decrease of around 71%.

It shows that the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar since mid February is not the result of the central bank's intention to lower it. "

< /p >

< p > "short term RMB is facing downward pressure, but the long-term appreciation of RMB is still expected."

Xu Xiaxiong said, "because the internationalization of the RMB indicates that the demand for RMB will be bigger and bigger."

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