Exchange Rate War Will Destroy China'S Bubble System

< p > since the exchange rate, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > exchange rate < /a > is a yardstick for measuring whether all countries' economic growth is reasonable or not.

Studying the exchange rate, we found that the first exchange rate revolution was the beginning of the US and British hegemony. They set the exchange rate at the price of gold, and the US dollar was 1 to 1.35.

Since then, the British gold standard has been lost, and the world's first empire and the world's first financial center have all been lost, and the course of human history has changed.

There are many events that change the human process on the exchange rate.

The Federal Reserve in the Volcker era, that is, from 80s to 90s of last century, at that time, many countries in Latin America were like a fixed exchange rate country like China today, and the exchange rate was made by the Central Bank of their own country. The leaders of these countries did not think there was anything wrong with it. As a result, we knew very well that for the sake of economic development, it is inevitable to spoil monetary infrastructure and build infrastructure.

However, even though the exchange rate fluctuated for a long time, 27 countries in Latin America were fixed exchange rate countries. In the process of raising the interest rate of the US dollar, the fixed exchange rate system of the 27 countries was all washed up by international capital and the bubble burst.

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< p > this is because only when the currency and asset prices are disproportionate to every country can the exchange rate be completely realized.

Housing prices and currencies are interrelated in one country. The extraordinary rise in land prices must be related to money, not just the flow and outflow of capital, but also the spread of money.

Countries with fixed exchange rates are often developing countries. These countries may not consider the role of exchange rate in their development. They think that exchange rate is only used as international trade (market area) and mutual paction. In fact, exchange rate is the only criterion to measure the price of a country's assets. Otherwise, any country can continuously promote land prices without interference, and there will never be a bubble burst.

We need to know that the reason why the human economic crisis is breaking out is the existence of exchange rate.

There are fundamental differences in this respect between the free floating countries and the fixed exchange rate countries.

Countries with floating exchange rates generally do not generate asset price bubbles related to land. Only a fixed exchange rate country can spoil the price bubble at the expense of costs, and the main reason for the final collapse of the housing bubble will be.

China's rulers do not understand this. They believe that house prices will rise forever. Once the recession starts, the bubble will be the engine of the real estate market, which is possible in the period of the depreciation of the US dollar. But in the period of the appreciation of the dollar, this means will be completely invalid. The reason is that the fundamental change of the RMB exchange rate and the depreciation from appreciation to the value is a historical turning point. The means of banknote printing will be completely invalid.

China is similar to Japan's Plaza Accord in the 90s of last century, and the yen continued to appreciate, rising from 240 yen to 80 yen. Soaring housing prices were popular among the Japanese people, thinking that rising housing prices were the embodiment of wealth. As a result, the Japanese housing bubble burst and the asset prices returned to the prototype in the first half of the year after the yen began to depreciate.

China is now at the end of the appreciation of the renminbi and the trend of depreciation has come into being. The collapse of the housing bubble is fast.

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< p > Yellen is Volcker second? I don't think so. < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > Yellen < /a > is Yellen. Yellen is both the end of Bernanke and the pioneer of the new cycle.

Her mission is different from that of Volcker because Yellen is not targeted at Latin American and Eastern European Socialist camps and the former Soviet Union, but BRICs and global emerging markets.

Yellen has a saying that reducing QE will not care how the emerging market will shake.

What does this mean? If the Chinese bubble is broken, it has nothing to do with the Fed and her work. Why not?

One thing is the same as Volcker, that is to realize the return of the king of the dollar.

Volcker created the 165 high point of the US dollar index. Will Yellen break through this high point? We will wait and see.

The Sino US exchange rate war is bound to start. Yellen certainly will not be a trader. But he is one of the most influential people, probably second only to Obama.

I analyze this way. Reducing QE is just preparing and leaving time and space for China. The real exchange rate war must start at a certain time before raising interest rates, so as to match the market effect of raising interest rates.

If China pierced the bubble of property prices before then, the Chinese economy would be saved; if we had to fight this exchange rate war, China's financial system would be hit hard.

The exchange rate war will also break the central bank's central parity and the spot market exchange rate of 2%, and then simply cancel the implementation at the spot exchange rate, that is, the exchange rate will float freely. Of course, this is all forced, because the amplitude increased from 0.5% to 1% and from 1% to 2%.

What does this mean to us? Everything is solved once we float freely.

Similarly, the exchange rate war will break China's import and export system, because China's import and export "import tax increase", "export tax rebate" policy, resulting in China's commodity prices are completely different from foreign countries, this price system from the exchange rate fault will sooner or later be washed up by international capital.

Perhaps this is also a major purpose of this exchange rate war.

To be sure, the exchange rate war will completely destroy China's housing bubble, China's land value will return to the prototype, and the northern Guangzhou Shenzhen housing bubble collapsed at the earliest.

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On the eve of the P exchange rate war, there will be problems in the northern Guangzhou Shenzhen real estate market. First, the four big cities are the biggest disaster areas in China's housing price bubble. The specific data need not be mentioned. International capital is also the four largest city in the analysis of the biggest risk of China's housing bubble, and also the main city of the US dollar escaping from China before the exchange rate war started.

The two is from March this year, the four cities due to the sharp decline in volume, resulting in continuous increase in inventory.

In 2007, I analyzed the reason why Shenzhen's housing prices will drop. The reason is not the subprime mortgage crisis, but the 50 thousand sets of Shenzhen's commercial housing inventory data.

This four big cities inventory super high speed increase is already taking place, the stock increase is mainly the real estate enterprise at the end of 2012, the property market improves, the massive new project has increased, these new projects began to enter in 2014, but the market has already been overdrawn, the sales volume has declined obviously, the two aspects function has caused the stock to increase greatly.

According to the statistics of Yi Ju China, as of the end of March, the total inventory of newly built commercial housing in 20 cities monitored was 84 million 10 thousand square meters, an increase of 2%, an increase of 16.3% over the same period last year.

The total inventory in these cities has reached a record high of nearly 5 years.

In the 20 cities, including North, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other cities, there are 14 cities' inventory rising.

The inventory of 3 cities in Beijing, Shenzhen and Maoming increased significantly, and the growth rate reached 10%, 9.8% and 7.5%. < /p respectively.

< p > > this a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > inventory increase < /a > will begin to deteriorate after 35 months, and 35 months later, it is also the time node for the Federal Reserve to withdraw from QE. The internal and external funds will attack the first tier cities together, which is very similar to the real estate collapse of the first tier cities in 2008.

If the DPRK wants to stick to the price bubble in the first tier cities, then the subsequent exchange rate war will be very exciting, and China will be totally unable to resist it.

The total value of the land in a Chinese first tier city can buy the whole of the United States, and this hyped up land price will naturally be attacked because it is entirely the result of China's central bank's currency spamming and the Fed's quantitative easing.

Reducing QE and attacking the exchange rate naturally attacked house price bubbles.

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< p > the RMB exchange rate may depreciate to 6.8 yuan before the general attack of exchange rate is launched.

This is my basic judgement.

China has not had a decent currency war for more than 60 years. This time, it may not be able to escape, which makes many people who do not understand the exchange rate's bubble wealth be ruthlessly looted.

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