The World Cup Starts Next Week With 11 Stocks To Start The World Cup.

From the point of view of statistics, the curse of the June and the curse of the world cup have their reasons. It has been said that in the past 10 years, there has been a sharp fall in the market in June for 9 years, and only 1 rises. It is not too much to describe the A share market in June. Similarly, the curse of the world cup is always tested. Statistics show that in the past 14 World Cup months, only 3 times the global stock market rose, with a fall probability of 78.57%.

In any case, the two magic figures have been supported by data, and it seems that they should be taken seriously. But if we think carefully about the probability behind the data, there are many doubtful points.

Let's first talk about the June curse of our stock market. The enchanted figures say that in the 9 years of 10 years, there was a sharp fall in June, with only one rise. The first thing to note is that in the 9 years, the only thing that happened in June was "the stock market once fell" but not the whole June, which included the situation of stabilizing after the 6 month's decline. If June index Performance, down probability It's not that high.

We should see that in the past 10 years, the Shanghai Composite Index has only risen significantly in 3 years. Although it rose by 3% in 2012, the index fell in the whole year, and rebounded rapidly until the end of the year. Then, can we draw a conclusion from this curse: "China's stock market can not invest, the probability of falling up to 70%!"

Obviously, the curse of the world cup and the curse of June do not have enough statistical samples, and catch up with China's stock market downturn in recent years. Don't say that the stock market in June is not good, and the stock market in China has been out of stock for many years. Against the backdrop of 10 years of 3 years of Chinese stock market growth, the odds for June are not high.

Let's look at the curse of the world cup. We found the description of the curse of the world cup on the Internet: statistics show that in the past 14 world cups, only 3 times the global stock market went up. Looking at it carefully, there is a big problem with this formulation. There are only 3 rises in the global stock market. Who is the global stock market? The Internet describes the stock market down during the World Cup: from June 10, 1998 to July 12th, the world cup was held in France. The London stock market began to weaken when the World Cup opened. During the world cup, the Financial Times Index dropped from 6000 points to 5646 points, with a maximum drop of 6.6%. The Paris index of France continued to fall from July 13th as soon as the World Cup ended. By the beginning of October, the French Paris index had fallen by 30%, and the Nikkei and Dow Jones index had also been adjusted, and the Shanghai stock index also fell by 100 points.

Obviously, the so-called world. equity market Down, this is just a drop in the British stock market. Then, the believers in the "World Cup curse" confused the concept of time. Arguably, the world cup spell must mean the world cup. As a result, the time of the curse of the world cup was counted in October.

Now we are very clear that the so-called curse of the world cup is that in the one or two months before and after the world cup, only one stock market in the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Japan and China will fall sharply, that is, the curse of the world cup. And there are only 13 samples.

I believe that after 7 years of decline, China's stock market has been fully released. Recently, banks, such as "industry, agriculture, China, construction" and other banks, have seen a strong trend, which indicates that the market is showing signs of stabilization in the big trend. In the context of the unlikely risk of big risks in China's economy, the Shanghai stock index has fallen very little.