The Central Parity Of RMB Has Ended.

After the sharp rise of 257 basis points on the three day, P has ended the previous devaluation tour, which has become a topic of great concern to all parties in the market.

Yesterday, the central bank authorized the foreign exchange trading center to announce the central parity of RMB against the US dollar at 6.1506, ending the three consecutive day of soaring trend, with a 55 basis point cut.

Analysts believe that in May the trade surplus, capital flows and economic performance and the first 4 months of a marked improvement, under such circumstances, the market expectations of the RMB exchange rate will obviously change, the depreciation of nearly 5 months may be near the end, the RMB exchange rate will show greater two-way fluctuations in the future, do not rule out the possibility of a slight appreciation.

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Since the entry of P into June, the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate between the US dollar and the US dollar has increased significantly.

In June 5th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar dropped 6.17 points and hit a low of 10 months. But in the following three trading days, the market seemed to re ignite the hot money for the renminbi, and the central parity of the RMB exchange rate increased rapidly.

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< p > however, after three consecutive days of soaring momentum, the central bank authorized the foreign exchange trading center yesterday to announce a 55 basis point adjustment in the central parity of RMB against the US dollar and back to 6.1506.

According to the Information Times reporter, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate has risen by 204 basis points, or 0.33%, from the lowest point of 6.1710 in June 3rd.

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< p > this year, the RMB exchange rate has continued to depreciate continuously. From the beginning of January to the beginning of June, the RMB depreciated to 1.12% against the US dollar, the spot price depreciated by 3.55%, and the real effective exchange rate index of the RMB was also weakening.

If calculated from 6.0969 last December 31st, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate will still depreciate by 537 basis points this year, and the depreciation rate will be 0.88%.

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This year, the a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > China's foreign exchange administration /a > has repeatedly responded to the RMB exchange rate fluctuation. It has indicated that with the deepening of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform and the decisive role of the market, the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate will become the norm. The two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate at a balanced and reasonable level is conducive to promoting the balance of international payments, improving the foreign-related economic environment and preventing financial risks. P

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The situation reflected in the June p a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > RMB > /a > exchange rate does not mean that the exchange rate depreciation is coming to an end. Chen Lei, an analyst with Hongyuan securities (000562, stock bar), told an information times reporter yesterday that the recent purchasing of China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers index has been one of the reasons for the rebound of the RMB against the US dollar.

Coupled with the remarkable expansion of the trade surplus in May, a record high of US $35 billion 900 million has also directly led to an upward pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi.

At the same time, the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is in line with the official policy. The fluctuation of the currencies in developed and emerging markets will also have an impact on the RMB exchange rate fluctuations.

On the whole, we can not rule out the possibility of a slight rise in the RMB exchange rate in the future.

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< p > recently released foreign trade data can really support the rise of the RMB exchange rate.

According to the Information Times reporter, from March this year, the domestic trade surplus was only 7 billion 700 million US dollars, up to 18 billion 500 million US dollars in April, and in May it rose to 35 billion 900 million US dollars.

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< p > as for RMB a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > appreciation space < /a > how big is it, Chen Lei said that it also needs to pay close attention to the economic data released at the weekend, including investment, consumption and industrial output data.

If the above data exceed expectations in May, the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to be supported, and the trend of phased appreciation may continue.

In the long run, although it is also optimistic about the mild improvement of the trade situation, it is hard to say whether it will remain high or not, so it is hard to judge whether the RMB exchange rate can be reversed in the long run.

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< p > recent research by Martin Kellas and Arvind Subramanian, senior fellow of the Pedersen Institute for international economics of the US think tank, also showed that the RMB exchange rate undervalued was only 1.7%, according to the world bank's 2011 purchasing power parity standard, which has continued to appreciate for three years and the 2014 valuation is reasonable.

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