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Foreign Trade Data Surplus Continues To Rise, Economic Recovery "On The Road"

2014/6/17 14:42:00 30

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Gao Zhiqiang (a pseudonym) has been unable to sleep over the past two days. As an industry analyst of a brokerage company, the newly released a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > export < /a > Data reminds him of the factory that was recently investigated: only 2 workshops in the neat rows of factories are functioning normally; 20% of the employees have not received the notice from the previous class, although the number of orders has slightly rebounded this year, compared with the heyday, it still dropped by about 25%. According to the boss of the company, this situation is optimistic in the industry, and small and medium-sized enterprises are not in a minority due to cash flow and other problems. 
 the scene of the American economy, the bronze bull of the Wall Street, the workshop of the research, and the work of the women workers. The image of this picture forms a "Butterfly Effect" in Gao Zhiqiang's mind. He also makes an analyst of industry as he starts to think more about the question that macro analysts should consider: how much truth is the import and export data? What is the trend of China's economy? How does the US economy's second half trend affect China's large number of import and export enterprises? 
 it is not a simple matter to get these answers. First of all, we will first look at the import and export data released in May. 
 a href= < http://www.91se91.com/ > surplus > /a > continuously rising /p >
The Customs General Administration released the import and export data in May. Data show that exports in May increased by 7% over the same period last year, slightly higher than market expectations (the market is expected to have a median value of 6.4%), and rebounded faster than the growth rate of 0.86% in April. Imports fell 1.6% compared to the same period last year, significantly lower than the market expectations (the market is expected to median 5.8%), compared with the growth rate of 0.9% in April. In May, the trade surplus of US $35 billion 920 million, compared with last month, rose by US $17 billion 500 million, an increase of US $15 billion 300 million compared with the same period last year, rising for third consecutive months (the 22 billion 980 million US dollar deficit in February was the lowest since February 2012), but imports rebounded while exports rebounded. 
"P", "deducting the base factor, China's foreign trade and imports are still running at a basically reasonable interval, and will gradually resume growth in the future and enter a relatively stable moderate growth stage, and the forerunner index also indicates that the export situation in May will continue to improve." Customs officials said so. 
 the growth of exports has a great relationship with the recovery of overseas markets. 
In the interview with the international financial daily, P, a debman fund official, said that despite the twists and turns in the external economic recovery, the steady growth of European and American economies has played a certain role in boosting exports. In late 4 and mid May, the State Council has taken five measures to promote stable growth of foreign trade and optimize the structure of foreign trade. New measures of "sixteen countries" have been released to stabilize foreign trade, to emphasize structural adjustment, to improve financing services, to increase trade facilitation level and to enhance competitiveness of enterprises, and to gradually promote import and export growth. The US PMI data has been rising for 4 consecutive months, indicating that China's subsequent exports will improve. The contribution of exports to economic growth in the second quarter is expected to increase significantly. With the resurgence of overseas markets, the external demand situation has gradually improved. It is expected that this trend is expected to continue in the future. The stronger certainty is that some industries and companies that export to the US and Europe, as well as related trade activities benefiting regional economic integration, will further support the domestic economy. 
The P, a debbond fund, further stated that the data show that exports to major trading partners continue to grow. In the first 5 months, bilateral trade between China and Europe increased by 9.1%, bilateral trade between China and the United States increased by 2.6%, bilateral trade with ASEAN increased by 1.2%, bilateral trade between China and Japan increased by 1.1%, and the bilateral trade with Hongkong decreased by 28.3%, which is the main reason for the decline in growth rate at the beginning of this year. However, there is still room for growth in bilateral trade between China and the United States. From the perspective of economic growth, the US is better than Europe and has strong momentum, but the ability to pull trade is not only weaker than Europe, but also weaker than before. 
 although exports have increased to a certain extent, experts believe that the quality of exports needs to be improved. 
 Kay stone workshop related analysts believe that we can see that the quality of export commodity structure needs to be improved. Exports of mechanical and electrical products, which accounted for 56.7% of the total export value in the first 5 months, dropped by 5.1%, of which electrical and electronic products decreased by 11.3%, and machinery and equipment increased by only 0.1%. Over the same period, the traditional labour intensive products, which accounted for 20.1% of the total value of exports, were reversed from a decline of 0.8% in the first 4 months to an increase of 0.4%. In addition, fertilizer exports increased by 1.2 times; steel exports increased by 33.6%; automobile exports decreased by 6.6%. 
 "in fact, the added value of export growth in May is not high. The growth rate of goods with high added value continues to decline, the advantage of science and technology has not been established, and the advantage of labor cost has not existed, which is the deep pressure of the future growth of exports." Kay stone Workshop said the above. 
 it is noteworthy that in May, the import was weaker. The industry analysts believe that there may be the following reasons: first, domestic demand is still weak, especially investment demand is weak; in May, the prices of production materials such as steel and non-metallic building materials continued to decline; two, recently, because of the gradual exposure of credit risk, banks tightened trade financing and import trade financing decreased; three, the depreciation of RMB and the import of enterprises will be postponed. 
Zhou Hao, China economist at ANZ bank, said that the biggest attraction of trade data in May was import. P Compared with the previous year, it is significantly lower than the average market expectation. It should be a problem of trade financing. In particular, the financing of Qingdao port will be further fermented and the future will be even more serious. For example, a bank, especially the big Chinese capital tightening. "We have taken into account the impact of trade financing on imports and exports, but from a data perspective, the situation is even worse." 
Niu Li, director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the China National Information Center, said P imports continued to decline, indicating that domestic demand was not strong, which was still in line with the downward pressure on domestic economy. From the trend, exports will remain 7% or even higher in the second half of the year. After all, Europe and the United States remain the main trading partners of China. Its economic recovery is the main reason for China's external demand to maintain growth. In terms of imports, it is expected that in the second half of the year, it will be warmer in the second half of the year. 
 > how much moisture /p >
 it is worth noting that after the import and export data was released in May, there is a hard point to ignore. In May, the import and export data indicate that more "moisture" (i.e. false trade) is squeezed out, and the next "squeeze water" action may continue. 
 Guangda Baode trust fund investment researcher accepted in the interview with the international finance daily that the increase in export growth was mainly due to the gradual decline of the base effect of false trade and the logic of mild recovery in the global manufacturing industry. However, considering that the order of Canton Fair is rather weak, late export growth may still be more moderate. In addition, the weakening of the exchange rate and the steady growth policy of foreign trade are more effective in stimulating labor intensive and low value-added products. 
 in fact, the fight against false trade began in April last year. 
In April 2013 P, Chinese regulators began to crack down on illegal currency speculation. This kind of behavior refers to: currency speculators evade China's strict capital control through forged export data, secretly spanfer foreign exchange into China, and replace the Renminbi that was rapidly appreciated at that time. In 2014, this spanaction has been greatly reduced, partly because of the crackdown by Chinese regulators, and on the other hand, the Central Bank of China has been lowering the RMB exchange rate to prevent capital inflows. 
 analysts believe that this April will be the last month of China's trade data distortion due to rampant counterfeiting exports. However, because the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs refused to publish the revised data in 2013, even other Chinese government departments could only guess the true state of China's export sector. 
 for the degree of distortion of trade data, the General Administration of Customs has said that official data show that trade volume between Mainland China and Hongkong fell by 33% in the first four months of 2014 compared with the same period last year. Last year, most of the false receipts were related to exports to Hongkong. 
 data statistics show that in the first 5 months, bilateral trade between the mainland and Hongkong amounted to 808 billion 740 million yuan, down 28.3%. Since the end of last year, the total value of trade between the mainland and Hongkong has continued to decline, with the total trade value falling by 33.1% in the first four months of this year. Zheng Yuesheng, director general of the General Administration of customs and director of the comprehensive statistics department, said that after the middle of April last year, the mainland's trade with Hongkong returned to normal. It can be predicted that the mainland's export growth to Hongkong will rebound from May this year. Despite the twists and turns in the recovery of the peripheral economy, the steady growth of the European and American economies has played a certain role in boosting China's exports. At the end of 4 and mid May, the State Council has taken five measures to promote the steady growth of foreign trade and optimize the structure of foreign trade. A number of measures to release new "sixteen countries" to stabilize foreign trade, emphasize structural adjustment, improve financing services, improve trade facilitation level and enhance competitiveness of enterprises have been implemented step by step, which will help promote stable growth of imports and exports. PMI data in the US has been rising for 4 consecutive months, indicating that China's subsequent exports will improve. It is estimated that exports will contribute significantly to economic growth in the two quarter. However, from the latest data in May, we can see that the growth rate of exports to Hongkong in May dropped by 0.83% compared with the same period last year. After excluding Hongkong, exports increased by 8.42% over the same period last year, a slight decrease of 1.1% compared with April, reflecting a gradual decline in the base effect and a moderate recovery in export growth. 
Less than P, behind the fight against false trade, the mainland has increased the proportion of exports to other countries while reducing its trade proportion with Hongkong. However, the growth rate is still small. From May, the export growth rate of G3 countries increased by 8.38% compared with the same period in April, up 3 percentage points from April. Among them, US export growth dropped 5.7 percentage points to 6.3%, while Europe and Japan grew slightly to 13.4% and 2.2%. For emerging market countries, such as ASEAN export growth rebounded to 9.14%, tend to think that the emerging market economies are also recovering. 
 in fact, this trend has already been discerned from this April. In April 2014, China's import and export data showed that exports grew by 0.9% over the same period last year, and imports grew by 0.8% year-on-year. 
 "from the seasonality, this data is expected to increase, and the growth rate has recovered slightly for a period of time, except for the impact of price factors. A series of measures against counterfeit trade this year have made the data relatively true, but the year-on-year growth is not as good as last year." Taida Hongli fund stakeholders said so. 
 economic recovery is on the road /p >
 although the import and export data in May are not ugly, experts mention almost every word about the subsequent economic recovery: far from that. 
 "on the whole, the import and export trade data of China did appear to exceed expected growth during this period, but the increase is not enough to drive the domestic economic recovery. At present, we are still facing other unfavorable factors such as foreign anti-dumping. In the future, the growth rate of import and export trade data will not be too large. In May, there will be a weak rebound. Considering that import demand is still weak, it is expected that the data in 6-7 months will remain unoptimistic, and foreign exchange holdings may pick up slightly as exports rebate. TEDA Hongli people continue to say. 
Yang Delong, chief economist of the southern fund, also told reporters in an interview with "international finance daily" that the import and export data have improved. This is also related to the global economic recovery. The European and American economies have rebounded in a certain way, which has led to the revival of domestic exports. P In the second half of this year, export growth will return to around 10%, and the recovery of exports will also bring some impetus to the domestic economic recovery. But the global economy will still have a lot of twists and turns, and it will not go all the way. There will be repeated data. Now the three carriages of the domestic economy are growing very slowly. 
"P": "the recovery of exports has brought a glimmer of light to the economy. Considering the slow growth of the economy, it is estimated that there will be some policies to promote economic recovery in the second half of the year. The economic data is so bad that the stock market is hard to show. " Yang Delong said. 
Zhang Jianhui, chief analyst at Kai Shi workshop, also said that he was not optimistic when interviewed by the international finance news reporter P. 
 Zhang Jianhui believes that in the future economic situation, the positive spanmission of external demand to the domestic industry, or the positive spanmission to some industries and companies, is strongly related to some industries and companies that are exported to the US and Europe, and the related trade activities of the "maritime Silk Road" which benefit the regional economic integration. In the export industry to the US, mechanical and electrical appliances, electrical machinery, audio-visual equipment, spanport equipment except passenger cars and railway vehicles, and labor-intensive "a target=" _blank "href=" http://www.91se91.com/ "> textile < /a > a target=" _blank "href=" target= "> clothing, furniture and bedding categories are more obvious or beneficial. 
 in addition, the Everbright Baode trust fund company also predicts that export growth will continue to rise in June, import growth will remain low, trade surplus or record high, predict that the Euro American economy will further improve in June, and the growth rate of Hong Kong's exports may be negative, and China's export growth will continue to rise. At the same time, domestic demand may remain weak, banks will tighten trade financing, and import growth will remain low in June. If exports grew by 8% in June and zero in imports, the trade surplus would reach US $41 billion 100 million, up from 40 billion 300 million US dollars in November 2008, a record high. 
Wei Fengchun, general manager of the fund's Macro Strategy Department, said P, looking forward to the next few months, it is very likely that fiscal and monetary policies will become loose at the same time, and the border of stimulus has been expanded from central to local. The economy is expected to stabilize at the end of the two quarter or the beginning of the three quarter. In the context of economic stabilization, the logic of "A cycle" and "growing up" is still established. The strong growth of gem and emerging industries still has a basis. 
 Wei Fengchun also said that because of the two consecutive months of recovery in export data in May, the power generation reached a record high and the PMI value was stronger after the quarter adjustment. Against this background, the market has different views on "micro stimulation". One side believes that there is no need for "micro stimulation", while the other side wants to turn "micro stimulation" into "strong stimulation". Wei Fengchun believes that "micro stimulation" is necessary. First, because it can be foreseen, because the three quarter is facing the impact of high base numbers in the same period last year, there is a great downward pressure on the economy. The second is the foundation of the current economic stabilization is not strong enough. Moreover, the current economic stabilization can not be regarded as "micro stimulation", which has already achieved results, because the effect of policy can be "immediate." Therefore, the government must advance sword and grasp the initiative of economic control, which also helps to anticipate management. As to whether micro stimulation can become a strong stimulus, it depends on the strength of the economy itself. But from the present situation, the possibility of strong stimulation can almost rule out that the "micro stimulus" bullet can fly for a while. 
Tang Wenjie, the P open source fund of Qianhai, also believes that, from the domestic perspective, the performance of the market is strongly contrasting with the general rise of the global market. This is closely related to the domestic economic and market environment. It is undeniable that spanformation, consumption and innovation are the key to China's economy, but it will not happen overnight, and it needs time and space to adjust. This month's economic data are still lacking. The market is looking for a cut in interest rates, but whether this is a good solution to the economic difficulties remains to be seen. At present, the market is sluggish, and the whole group continues to wait and see. 
 Wanjia fund's related research and research personage directly expressed "empty economy" in an interview. 
"According to the high frequency data, the power generation cycle is higher than that in late May, which is more than seasonal," P said. From the verification of mesoscopic data from the major industrial sectors, we can see that this capacity utilization rate is rising slower than we expected. On the microcosmic level, there are also information that industrial enterprises' capital chain tension leads to the increase of profit space and the resumption of production can not be carried out smoothly. Although the details of the rhythm are different, we have not changed the view that the macroeconomic data maintained a slight rebound and overall volatility in 5 and June. Price data further show weakness. The short price of cement in the stock chain has continued downward in the near future, which is contrary to the trend in April, and the coal coke steel chain began to decline with the volume of shipments, and the output began to rise. The price expectation was also pessimistic. 
 < a > href= > http://www.91se91.com/ > > wealth > /a > index fall into the recession interval /p >
 the latest report on China's wealth prosperity index released by the Bank of communications shows that the desire for real estate investment of well-off families in China has set a new low in the past four years, the first time it has fallen below the 100 line of prosperity and decline and has fallen into a recession. 
 the issue of China's wealth prosperity index for the current period was 127 points, down 3 percentage points from the previous period, unchanged from the same period last year. Economic prosperity index, income growth index and willingness to invest index three first level indicators have declined to varying degrees. 
 the report said that the willingness of well-off families to invest in real estate has been declining for 6 months. The current period dropped 3 percentage points to 99 points. The proportion of well-off families expected to fall in house prices has rapidly expanded from 11% to 24%, indicating that the downward trend of house prices is expected to be further strengthened. 
 the bank reported that the current survey showed that with the cooling of the real estate market, the real estate investment intention of families with multiple Suites continued to show a significant downward trend, indicating that the real estate investment and speculative demand shrank significantly. Compared with that, the households without houses still had the desire to enter the market. 
 city level, the core cities of the survey conducted a relatively stable attitude towards real estate investment intention. This period is 103 points. The willingness of non core city families to invest in real estate has been declining for 6 consecutive months from the end of last year, and this period has fallen to 96 in the recession. It shows that the difference of real estate investment willingness among well-off families is more and more obvious among different cities.