Futures Market Daily PTA Rising Base Has Not Changed

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Since P July, the 1409 main contract of domestic PTA has experienced ups and downs.

In July 1st, PX dropped more than 50 U.S. dollars per ton. The next day, the domestic PTA main 1409 contract was closed to the limit, and then continued to rise from low to 7300 yuan / ton.

In the two trading day of this week, the 1409 contract was adjusted downward again, and it fell through 7000 yuan / ton on Tuesday.

However, I believe that in the case of tight supply of PTA, low inventory and large base, there are still many opportunities for bargain hunting in the late stage.

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< p > < strong > PTA the overall supply is tight < /strong > /p >

< p > since May this year, the main enterprises in China are "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "> PTA < /a > production enterprises have taken measures to limit production and protect prices, which is actually a kind of helpless action.

The industry alliance strictly controls the bottom line of the 70% operating rate. Until now, the loss trend of enterprises has been effectively curbed.

Affected by the temporary parking of Honggang petrochemical and Ningbo Taiwan chemical facilities, the domestic PTA industry's overall operating rate dropped to a low level of 55% on Friday.

Although the two sets of equipment resumed operation last weekend, the PTA industry started to operate at a low level of 65%, but the average operating rate of polyester in the near future is about 73%.

Combined with the view, the current domestic PTA supply is still in a tight situation.

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< p > in the short term, the tight supply pattern of PTA will still support the spot market. Later, we need to pay more attention to the start-up of PTA devices.

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< p > < strong > PTA inventory effective digestion < /strong > /p >

Since P reached a record high of nearly 2 million 300 thousand tons in February this year, the social stock of domestic PTA has been declining, and it has dropped to about 1 million 240 thousand tons by the end of June, reaching a new low of nearly a year and a half.

It is precisely because of the effective digestion of social inventory, PTA production enterprises can control the starting rate to spot prices.

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Besides P, the PTA warehouse receipt of Zheng Shang has also dropped sharply from its historical highs.

In March 20th, the amount of registered warehouse receipts reached 78549, but by July 8th, the volume of warehouse receipts had dropped to 2381.

From the perspective of social inventory and exchange warehouse receipts, PTA inventory has been effectively digested.

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< p > < strong > the large base difference supports the period price < /strong > < /p >.

< p > in the process of the rise of PTA price, the spot price increase is obviously higher than the futures market, which leads to the widening of the base.

The recent basis is basically maintained at 300 yuan / ton, which has a relatively large support for futures prices.

More importantly, after entering the year July, the main force of the contract in September shifted to different levels to the January contract. But 1409 is still the main contract, and the position is significantly larger than the 1501 contract. When the spot is strong and the base is too large, the bears will be in a more unfavorable position as time goes on.

Therefore, under the protection of base, the price of PTA will rise or fall.

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< p > overall, the PTA main 1409 contract will return to the rally after experiencing a sharp decline in the high position. It will not exclude the impact on the previous high point and even the 7500 yuan / tonne pass.

In operation, it is recommended that a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > investors < /a > take the strategy of bargain buying, the entry interval is 7000 - 7100 yuan / ton, the target price is 7500 yuan / ton, and if the effective wear is 6900 yuan / ton, the stop loss will be left.

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