Export Growth Is Warming: Consumption Will Increase Slightly In The Second Half Of The Year.

< p > in the coming period, China's industrial growth is at a critical stage of pformation, and consumption will gradually surpass investment in stabilizing industrial growth.

Sai Di think tank published in July 1st "the second half of 2014, China's consumer goods industry trend analysis and judgment" report, said that in the second half of this year, China's consumer goods industry export growth will rebound, production growth will rebound slightly, but domestic demand growth is still worrying.

In addition, the consumer goods industry still faces challenges such as severe export situation, insufficient domestic demand, rising labor costs, increasingly prominent environmental constraints, and arduous tasks of industrial restructuring.

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< p > < strong > < a > href= > http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_z.asp > > /a > increase or normalization < /strong > /p >

< p > in the first half of 2014, the growth rate of China's consumer goods industry was significantly lower than that of the same period last year, due to the dual impact of macroeconomic downturn and weak consumer demand.

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< p > specifically, compared with the same period last year, the growth rate of industrial added value in the three industries of light industry, textile and medicine decreased by 1.2, 2.1 and 1.2 percentage points respectively in 1~4 months.

In all sub sectors, the growth rate of industrial added value in two industries, including alcoholic beverages, refined tea manufacturing and chemical fiber manufacturing, rebounded sharply, with a rebound of 0.9 and 0.8 percentage points respectively.

The growth rate of industrial added value has also gone up slightly in two industries: printing and recording media, replication and textile.

Agricultural and sideline products processing, food manufacturing, alcoholic beverages and refined tea manufacturing, textile industry growth rate glide is more obvious.

Compared with the first quarter, the growth rate of industrial added value in the two industries of light industry and medicine continued to decline in 1~4 months.

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< p > in the second half of the year, production costs rebounded slightly as the cost pressure was reduced.

Sai Di think tank analysis, on the one hand, raw material prices are expected to decline steadily.

The supply of bulk consumer goods has increased during the harvest period.

The continuous implementation of the policy of northeast and Inner Mongolia soybean and Xinjiang cotton target price subsidies has made the prices of raw materials such as grain, oil and cotton and textile industry expected to steadily decline.

On the other hand, the effect of corporate burden reduction policy appears.

Since the eighteen major, relevant departments have promulgated the "notice on reducing the burden of enterprises in 2014" and other documents, these measures will effectively reduce the burden of enterprises.

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< p >, therefore, the overall production growth of the consumer goods industry will rebound in the second half of the year.

Among them, the industrial added value growth of light industry is expected to rise to around 9.5%, and the textile industry's growth rate of industrial added value is expected to approach 8%.

By contrast, the situation in the pharmaceutical industry is hard to say.

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< p > at the same time, with the acceleration of the international economic recovery and the further deepening of China's opening to the outside world and the increase of international orders, the export situation of China's consumer goods industry has changed.

Compared with the first quarter, the export delivery value of the three industries of light industry, textile, medicine and 1~4 rose by 1.1, 0.4 and 1.2 percentage points respectively.

In all sub sectors, the growth rate of export delivery value of five industries, such as culture, education, industry, beauty, sporting goods manufacturing, leather and fur feathers and their products, footwear manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, printing and recording media, agricultural and sideline products processing industry, showed a marked recovery, but the two industries of alcoholic beverages, refined tea manufacturing and chemical fiber manufacturing continued to decline.

Compared with the same period last year, the growth rate of export delivery value of light industry, textile, medicine and other three industries in 1~4 month decreased significantly, with a decrease of 2.3, 2.2 and 3.4 percentage points respectively.

In various sub sectors, the export delivery value of four industries, including alcoholic beverages and refined tea manufacturing, leather fur feathers and their products, footwear, paper and paper products, printing and recording media, increased significantly. The export delivery value of five industries, such as agricultural and sideline food processing industry, cultural and educational industry, sports goods manufacturing industry, textile industry, chemical fiber manufacturing industry and pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, showed a marked decline.

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< p > with the accelerated exit of quantitative easing policy in developed economies, the level of RMB exchange rate is expected to further improve.

It is expected that in the second half of this year, the overall delivery value of the consumer goods industry will increase.

Among them, the two industries of light industry and textile industry will rise more obviously, and they are expected to reach 5.5% and 6% respectively. The growth rate of industrial added value in the pharmaceutical industry is difficult to break through 5.5%.

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< p > < strong > domestic demand growth is worrying. < /strong > /p >

< p > for the current investment demand, the overall growth lacks momentum.

As the whole macro-economic growth is in a downward channel, the downside risk is still large, and investment confidence is obviously insufficient.

At the same time, constrained by the central bank's continuous implementation of the impact of open market repurchase, enterprises are faced with insufficient liquidity, forming the biggest constraint on investment growth.

In addition, the special support policy of national industrial revitalization and technological pformation is facing the abolition in 2014, and the trend of technological pformation policies in various places is also uncertain. The role of policy support in stimulating the growth of investment in consumer goods industry will be greatly reduced.

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< p > report shows that the overall investment growth of consumer goods industry in 1~4 month has slowed down compared with the same period last year.

In all industries, besides the growth rate of investment in food manufacturing, textile, furniture manufacturing, paper making and paper products, culture, education, sports, beauty, sports goods and other industries, the growth rate of investment in other industries has dropped to varying degrees. Among them, the investment growth rate of alcoholic beverages and refined tea manufacturing, textile and garment industry, and pharmaceutical manufacturing industry has dropped sharply, with a decrease of 15.1, 11.5 and 18.2 percentage points respectively.

Compared with the first quarter, the growth of fixed assets investment in 1~4 printing and recording media replication industry was more prominent, increasing by 4 percentage points, while the growth rate of other industries slowed down.

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Sai Di think tank predicts that there will be a slight increase in domestic demand for the consumer goods industry in the second half of the year P.

In terms of investment in fixed assets, the overall growth rate will not rise significantly.

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In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of total consumer goods in the month of 1~4 amounted to 8 trillion and 178 billion 240 million yuan, while the cumulative growth rate was 12%, but the growth rate decreased by 0.5 and 1.1 percentage points respectively over the same period last year and last year.

In addition to the growth in total retail sales of Chinese and Western medicines and newspapers and magazines, the total retail sales of consumer goods such as gold and silver jewelry, clothing and footwear, textiles, household appliances, furniture, sports and entertainment products and daily necessities have declined to varying degrees, especially gold, silver and jewellery and sports and entertainment products, which have decreased by 34.3 and 10.7 percentage points respectively over the same period last year.

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< p > by the drag of the real estate market and other reasons, the demand growth of durable consumer goods such as household appliances is obviously lacking in momentum. The only source of growth in consumer demand after the second half of the year is the demand for food, tobacco, liquor, textiles and clothing, which is caused by seasonal changes, and the growth space is relatively limited.

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< p > < strong > relieving pressure by multiple channels < /strong > < /p >

< p > obviously, because of the challenges such as market risk, structural adjustment and the rising cost of labor costs, China's consumer goods industry is full of pressure from the overall situation.

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< p > first, the risk of developing countries' export market is increasing.

For example, ASEAN countries are an important export market for China's consumer goods industry. Recently, disputes between China and Vietnam, Philippines and other countries on the South China Sea have intensified. The trend of the second half of this year is full of variables, which will have a certain impact on the export of the consumer goods industry and the key enterprises such as textile and garment industries.

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< p > secondly, the task of adjusting the industrial structure is arduous.

Elimination of backward production capacity and the pressure of energy saving and emission reduction, the cumulative contradictions over the years have led to overcapacity in the three industries of light industry, textile and medicine, and the level of capacity utilization is not high. There are great pressure to eliminate backward tasks in the four fields of paper making, leather making, printing and dyeing, chemical fiber and lead-acid batteries.

In the most areas such as printing and dyeing, pharmaceutical and other industries, there is also a lot of pressure on the pformation of coal-fired boilers.

At the same time, mergers and acquisitions have greater pressure.

The new version of GMP for pharmaceutical enterprises is pforming the line of life and death.

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< p > again, domestic demand growth is weak.

First, the macro-economic downturn restricts investment growth.

Entrepreneurs' investment confidence is insufficient, and the difficulty of financing for consumer goods industrial enterprises is further aggravated. The growth of fixed asset investment is restricted by insufficient liquidity.

Two, consumption demand growth momentum is insufficient, especially consumption of high-end liquor, meat, health food, tobacco, high-grade tea and so on. The fundamentals in the second half of this year are hard to reverse.

Three, the demand for related industries is obviously weak.

The regulation of the real estate market objectively causes the decline of household consumption and the demand for industrial textiles.

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< p > in addition, the cost of labor is rising.

On the one hand, labor costs show a marked upward trend.

On the other hand, the structural contradiction between the shortage of migrant workers and the difficulty of obtaining employment for university graduates is outstanding.

The problem of labor difficulty and high cost of labor in textile industry and other labor-intensive industries is becoming more and more prominent.

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< p > to solve the above problems, Sai Di think tank suggests that we should first strengthen the implementation of raw materials and burden reduction policies.

We must ensure that the target price subsidy system is put into practice, and push forward the pilot work of the value-added tax deduction of agricultural products in an effort to ensure the implementation of the policy and burden reduction for small and micro enterprises.

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< p > secondly, efforts should be made to improve the export environment.

We should increase financial support for export enterprises, further promote RMB settlement in cross-border trade, further improve export environment and vigorously develop export credit insurance.

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< p > again, we should further implement the policy of expanding domestic demand.

We should deepen the reform of the social security system, rectify and standardize the industry order, continue to promote the promotion of independent brands, cultivate and track the construction of independent brands of clothing, home textiles, household appliances and watch industry, increase the publicity of independent brands, and actively guide the brand enterprises such as home appliances to carry out the "old to new" activities independently to stimulate the release of consumer demand.

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< p > in addition, we should further promote structural adjustment, such as speeding up the pformation of the new version of GMP in pharmaceutical enterprises, further promoting the annexation and reorganization of enterprises and eliminating backward production capacity, strengthening market access and industry regulation, strengthening the monitoring of the operation and import and export of industries, strengthening the monitoring of the operation of domestic consumer goods industry and monitoring the key export markets, strengthening the analysis and information guidance on the market economic policies of the main raw materials and energy imports, and paying special attention to the price fluctuations of raw materials such as cotton and soybeans, which are highly dependent on imports.

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