Cotton Textile Industry PMI Continues To Decline: High Inventory Limit Zheng Cotton Uplink Range

< p > July, with the fall of cotton in the ICE period, the price of new cotton contracts in the new year is down all the way, and the volume of transactions has risen sharply. From a fundamental perspective, although China's cotton planting area in the new year has been significantly reduced, cotton prices will remain weak despite the shortage of stock and weak downstream demand. < /p >
< p > < strong > supply surplus < a href= > http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as > aggravating < /a >, the international cotton price continues to decline < /strong > /p >
< p > according to the latest global cotton supply and demand forecast released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA) in July, the total output of cotton in the year of 2014/2015 is 25 million 348 thousand tons, an increase of 109 thousand tons from last month, 24 million 241 thousand tons of consumption, 207 thousand tons reduction, and a further 23 million 9 thousand tons of final inventory, an increase of 645 thousand tons, an increase of 5.1% over the current year. In the context of further easing of global supply side, international cotton prices continue to decline. < /p >
< p > global cotton stocks have been rising for 5 consecutive years, and 2014/2015 has reached a record high. Stocks continued to rise this month, mainly due to the increase in carry over inventories in China and the United States. China's stock rise is due to a decrease in consumption, while in the us the output has risen sharply. The latest USDA data show that the next year's output of US cotton is 3 million 592 thousand tons, an increase of 326 thousand tons, a 27.8% increase over the current year, so the end of the year inventory estimate is 1 million 132 thousand tons, a 92.5% increase over this year. Because of the high price of cotton in the United States this year, this prompted us farmers to grow more cotton, and their planting area and output increased significantly, but demand did not increase significantly. The increase in output was reflected in the inventory at the end of the year. < /p >
< p > < strong > domestic planting < a href= > http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as > area < /a > down, but the inventory consumption ratio is still rising. < /strong > /p >
< p > according to the sampling survey of the main cotton producing counties from thirteen cotton producing provinces in the whole country, the total area of real cotton in 2014 was 60 million 280 thousand mu, 10 million 340 thousand mu less than that in 2013, and a decrease of 15%. It is estimated that the total output of this year will be 6 million 220 thousand tons, a decrease of 800 thousand tons compared with that in 2013, a decrease of 11%. < /p >
< p > although the cotton planting area of China has been reduced by 15% next year, the end inventory of USDA's latest supply and demand balance continues to rise to a new high. USDA expects that China's cotton output will be 6 million 423 thousand tons in the next year, 7 million 947 thousand tons of consumption, 109 thousand tons reduced, 1 million 742 thousand tons imported, and 13 million 556 thousand tons at the end of the term, 327 thousand tons higher than the previous month, and the inventory consumption ratio will be as high as 170.4%. It can be seen that China's cotton stocks are enough to meet domestic consumption for nearly two years, and the reduction of planting area will not make supply tight. < /p >
< p > < strong > < a > href= > http://sjfzxm.com//business/ > cotton spinning > /a > the weaving industry PMI continued to decline, the characteristics of the off-season were obvious < /strong > /p >
< p > June 2014, the purchasing managers index (PMI) of China's cotton textile industry was 39.5%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the new order index was 32.1%, down 2.4 percentage points from the previous month, the production index was 41.1%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, the index of the opening rate was 41.1%, a slight increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, 48.2% of cotton yarn inventory index, a 3.5 percentage point decline from the previous month, and 35.7% cotton inventories, a 2.2 percentage point drop from the previous month. Judging from the above sub indicators, the cotton textile industry has a poorer boom, and the characteristics of the off-season market are obvious. < /p >
On the other hand, the substitution effect of other raw materials such as chemical fiber and other cotton spinning materials will continue to exist in the P. At present, the price of viscose staple fiber and polyester staple fiber are 11830 yuan / ton and 9870 yuan / ton (CC Index3128B grade cotton price is 17270 yuan / ton), which will affect the cotton ratio of textile enterprises, and its replacement effect on cotton will exist for a long time. < /p >
< p > in short, under the background of the sharp decline in US cotton prices and the high domestic stock prices, the long-term weakness pattern of Zheng cotton is hard to change. After the main 1501 contract went through a pre - continuous drop, the current oscillation is adjusted, and there may be a short-term rebound. On the operation, we must not pursue the low position and wait until the price rebounds to the technical pressure level. < /p >