US Federal Reserve Tightens Policy To Support Us Dollar

< p > the world's < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > a target= "_blank" href= "_blank".

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< p > the Fed tightens its policy to support the US dollar.

People seem to agree with my views on the FOMC meeting minutes.

Global stock markets have fallen, while bonds have also been affected.

Federal funds interest rate expectations and bond yields began to rise, and then fell down because of lower stock prices.

In the US, the employment cost index rose slightly 0.7% from second in the first quarter to 0.5% over the 0.3% quarter.

This is the highest rate of growth since the 2008 economic crisis, making people think that the labour market has not shrunk as much as they expected.

The warming of the labour market means that the Fed will end its easing policy early.

Now appears to be a small scale to reproduce the situation in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke talked about the end of the Fed's quantitative easing policy.

At that time, the US dollar rose against most currencies.

I predict that it will be reproduced yesterday, even if it is not exactly the same.

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On the day of P, even if the federal funds interest rate and interest rate expectations remained almost unchanged, the US dollar continued to rise.

However, a big difference between yesterday and the near future is the collapse of emerging market currencies.

The dollar / emerging market currencies rose on Wednesday.

But on Thursday, the US dollar surged against almost all emerging market currencies.

For example, the Indonesian shield increased by 1.7%, against Hungary, rupee, Lille 0.8%, and Thai baht 0.7%.

Strangely, the ruble has a relatively good trend.

The US dollar / rouble rose only slightly by 0.2%.

Thus, we should pay attention to the weakness of emerging market currencies, rather than the strength of the US dollar rising against the emerging market currencies.

These have already reflected the austerity expectations described above, perhaps due to the default in Argentina. After sanctions against Russia, this reminds investors of the potential risks of emerging markets.

However, we must not forget that the euro zone countries are also facing the risk of default in the near future, and those who carry out the trading should be cautious because these various carry trade will continue for a period of time.

In the long run, I expect the emerging market currencies to rebound, because yields in the euro area are at historically low levels and the yields are quite attractive, but at the moment we should be cautious.

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The PMI value of manufacturing industry in the period < p > HSBC/Markit7 was revised down from 52 to 51.7.

The Aussie / US dollar advanced at the beginning of official data, and then fell after the latter announcement.

Trading at a lower location suggests that the market is more inclined to HSBC/Markit numbers.

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Today's data: P is also Europe's PMI announcement today.

Manufacturing PMI data from several European countries will open a prelude to today's paction, first of all the whole eurozone, followed by the United Kingdom, and finally the United States.

As usual, the predicted value of France, Germany and the euro area is the same as the initial value.

British manufacturing PMI is expected to drop from 57.5 to 57.2, which may weaken the pound.

The US ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 55.3 to 56, which will provide support for the US dollar.

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"P > but the main event today is the non farm employment data of the" a href= "" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_p.asp "> the US < /a > July.

The market survey shows that the employment data will increase by 231k compared with the 288k in June.

Strong non farm data, while the unemployment rate near 6.1% for six years is expected to remain unchanged, and the recent stable US economic data will further push up the US dollar.

As always, if anyone wants to enter the market before the publication of data, I suggest that they should make an issue on the currency exchange of US dollar / Japanese currency.

Because the currency responded more sharply to the non farm day than the US dollar / euro.

But on average, in the past year, whether the data were higher or lower than expected, the US dollar / yen went down a week after non-agricultural, rather than before the non-agricultural data. In fact, the previous six US dollar / yen went down in a week.

This pattern always seems to be the same: the US dollar always wants to move in the direction of changing the market view, and once the market has not changed, the price will revert to this point.

"This time may be different", but I think this time the non-agricultural figure should at least cooperate with the market instead of changing the market view so as to maintain the cohesion of the US dollar.

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Below P, we will also get data on personal income and personal consumption in June, which is expected to accelerate.

On the other hand, the annual personal consumption expenditure deflation index and the core personal consumption expenditure price index rise is expected to slow slightly, contrasting with the rapid acceleration of the core personal consumption expenditure price index in the second quarter of Wednesday GDP data.

The annual core consumer spending index is expected to slow from 1.5% to 1.4%.

The final value of consumer confidence index of University of Michigan in July will also be released today (/p).

< p > strong > euro. / USD before the non farm front is calm. < /strong > /p >

< p > euro / dollar on Thursday, 1.3365 of the support position and the important resistance 1.3400 consolidation, but in the 4 hours chart still see a short-term downward trend, if we break through the 1.3350/65 line support, we will go down 1.3300.

However, today's trend is largely determined by US employment figures.

On the daily chart, we can find that the 50 day line is below the 200 day moving average, and the trend will be lower and higher, and continue downward. The long-term trend of Europe and the United States will continue to maintain a downward trend.

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< p > support position: 1.3365 (S1), 1.3350 (S2), 1.3300 (S3) < /p >

< p > resistance level: 1.3400 (R1), 1.3425 (R2), 1.3445 (R3) < /p >.

< p > strong > USD / yen continued to go up < /strong > /p >

< p > US dollar / yen broke through 3 resistance positions all the way to the 103 position on Wednesday. On Thursday, when the 102.75 and 103 resistance levels were integrated, the prospect of upside down is still optimistic. It is likely that the resistance to 103.4 will be directly hit after 103.

The relative strength index can even be ignored, although it reaches 70 lines, it still points to the top.

On the 1 hour chart, the 14 hour relative strength index rebounded near the 50 position, while the MACD line was positive again, seemingly to break through the signal line.

We can expect further growth in the near future.

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< p > support position: 102.75 (S1), 102.65 (S2), 102.25 (S3) < /p >

< p > resistance level: 103 (R1), 103.40 (R2), 104.15 (R3) < /p >.

< p > strong > euro / pound slightly higher than /strong > /p >

< p > euro / pound rose slightly yesterday, trying to reach the 0.7935 (R1) resistance level.

The chart shows a downward trend line which began in April the 11th. Although the European pound is going down this trend line, the deviation between our kinetic energy research and price trend effectively proves the weakening of the seller's power.

At present, the European pound is a new stage, and the market has constantly confirmed my view that the current trend will not last for a long time.

If the seller can break 0.7875 (S2), I will regain confidence in the slide, because it will set a lower minimum price and trigger a new round of fall, which will put pressure on the resistance level of 0.7815 (S3).

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< p > support position: 0.7905 (S1), 0.7875 (S2), 0.7815 (S3) < /p >

< p > resistance level: 0.7935 (R1), 0.7980 (R2), 0.8030 (R3) < /p >.

< p > < strong > WTI continued to decline < /strong > /p >

< p > WTI continued to decline on Thursday.

The low value of 98.65 in July 15th was supported by 97.60 (S1).

Although the trend is still downward, I think the drop is too strong, so it is expected to be sideways today.

Before the continuation of the downward trend, the price will first reach 97 (S2), which will lay the foundation for the 95.85 (S3).

Shrinking to 1 hours online, 14 hours RSI out of the oversold area is now picking up, and hour MACD has hit the bottom and is now wearing a signal line.

So I expect to rebound in the vicinity of 97.60 (S1).

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< p > support position: 97.60 (S1), 97 (S2), 95.85 (S3) < /p >

< p > resistance level: 98.65 (R1), 100.45 (R2), 101 (R3) < /p >.

< p > 1290 gold under 1290 place < /p >

< p > < a > href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp > Gold > /a > plummeted yesterday, wearing 1290 and taking up 61.8% of the upward trend price of -7 on June 3rd, reaching 1280 1280 (S1).

This trend confirms a lower minimum price and moves cautiously.

Wearing 1280 indicates a more bearish trend, pointing to the 1265 support position (S2).

On the daily chart, 14 days after RSI got the resistance on the 50 day line, MACD went below the signal line and turned negative, indicating that the precious metal continued to look empty.

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< p > support position: 1280 (S1), 1265 (S2), 1258 (S3) < /p >

< p > resistance level: 1290 (R1), 1312 (R2), 1325 (R3) < /p >.

< p > IronFX < /p >