Textile And Garment Industry Continues To Explore Bottom

According to the latest earnings statistics in September, 43 textile and apparel listed companies announced the performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2014, of which only 4 companies increased in advance, 5 companies surpluses, 14 companies increased slightly, 6 companies pre reduced, 7 companies slightly reduced, 2 companies lost the first time, 4 companies continued to lose, and 1 companies were uncertain. This shows that the 43 textile and garment companies listed in the first three quarters of this year reported half of their achievements and complaints.

In the first half of 2014, the soft landing of macro-economic operation, the slow recovery of textile industry and the recovery of weakness in the short term affected the production and sales volume of textile and garment industry. Although it declined compared with the previous year, it has recovered somewhat compared with the first quarter, and the domestic consumer confidence index has risen and consumer sentiment has stabilized. And in the third quarter, the textile industry encountered the coldest "cold winter" in history.

Analysis of the industry, the textile and garment industry is continuing. Bottom The external factor is that exports are constrained by slow recovery and rising costs of external demand, and domestic demand is affected by foreign brands and electric providers. Internal factors lie in the hidden worries of extensive expansion of enterprises in the early years.

　　 Rising cost

The problem of recruitment is difficult. At present, these enterprises have to raise wages in order to recruit workers, which makes the labor cost of textile enterprises greatly increased, and the changes in exchange rate and raw materials have greatly increased the cost of enterprises.

　　 Export restriction

China's textile and garment export enterprises usually strictly check product quality, but not enough attention is paid to product safety and environmental protection. Especially since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the demand for the US market has declined, and the EU's support for our textile and clothing exports has become increasingly prominent. Now, the European attention to the detection of textile eco-environmental protection also has an unnegligible impact on the export of China's textile industry.

　　 Foreign brand impact

Domestic sports brands are sluggish, and foreign shoe and garment brands seize the opportunity to seize the Chinese market, making more inventory, which may lead enterprises to be unable to engage in the production and development of more new products. Without new products attracting consumers, sales will decline, and enterprises will be pushed into a vicious circle by inventory pressure, and the raw material and textile industry will go into a downturn.

　　 Impact of e-commerce

Many textile industry people do not realize that the Internet will bring huge changes to traditional industries. change The traditional way of operation has been unable to make the garment and textile industry get warmer. The textile industry will have to undergo a huge transformation of the terminal if it wants to pick up.

The current electricity supplier, online retailing is also increasing, and the figures for the whole year have not come out yet. But it is possible that clothing, clothing and household textiles will be close to even more than 500 billion yuan on the Internet. Last year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society amounted to 23 trillion and 400 billion yuan, and about 11% of these 23 trillion and 400 billion yuan were textiles and household textiles. That is to say, 2 trillion and 500 billion to 2 trillion and 600 billion yuan is textiles and clothing. If online sales exceed 500 billion yuan, that is to say, the current terminal 20% is sold on the Internet. Therefore, this piece will also cause a significant change in the sales way of some garment enterprises. Therefore, last year, some clothing enterprises, such as sportswear, clothing for young people, etc., may be closed a little faster and more, because this part of the transfer to online sales should be some popular products.

　　 Four key points for the development of textile industry in 2014

　　 First, there will be changes in our raw materials.

As we all know, the cotton policy will give target subsidies to Xinjiang after the new cotton season comes up this year. So, after hearing this news, many people think that our cotton will drop this year and will be closer to the price of the international market. But I think the trend of cotton prices this year may be more difficult to predict than in the past two years. Before September, it was still executing the state reserve price, which was 20400 yuan per ton. Now the acquisition is almost the same. More than 80% are now in the Treasury. The Treasury now has about 13000000 tons of cotton, which is equivalent to two years of production in the Treasury. The price of 18000 yuan per ton will be set for the state, and this price will still be implemented in the first half of this year and even before September. Cotton prices will not drop at least for a while.

After the launch of the new cotton market this year, although the country no longer stores, the about 13000000 tons of cotton in the Treasury must take several years to digest it. How to digest it? Now the state means only one import quota, so the digestion of national cotton reserves will inevitably be linked to import quotas. How to hook up? What way to hook up? What price link should be used? This is a variable this year. Therefore, I don't think we should hold much hope in the cotton market price. There will be changes, but how can it be difficult to say.

　　 Second, chemical fiber

The problems accumulated over the past few years in the adjustment of chemical fiber industrial structure have been emerging continuously for the past two years. It is reasonable to say that, like cotton prices were so high last year, the price of chemical fiber should also be lifted up, because less cotton is used, and chemical fibre will be used in large quantities. But in fact, the price of chemical fiber is still going down. It looks as if the price of chemical fibre will not be raised this year. The adjustment of this industrial structure will be swallowed up this year, no matter how bitter or what fruit it is.

　 Third, look at exports

China's textile industry in July clothing The export growth rate was higher than the two quarter, and the total export growth rate in 1~7 months increased to 5.1%. In 1-7 months, the total volume of textile and apparel trade increased by 178 billion 250 million US dollars, an increase of 4.8%, of which 162 billion 850 million US dollars were exported, 15 billion 400 million US dollars were imported, 1.5% increased, and the cumulative surplus was 147 billion 450 million US dollars, an increase of 5.5%. Presumably this year's exports are good, but in September the turnover has entered a cold winter. The textile industry has to keep pace with the times, know the current textile dynamics in the world, and make better strategies to make the textile industry develop again.

The first Four, domestic demand market

The domestic demand market has dropped to around 11% last year, far below our expectations. The amount of retail sales of consumer goods mentioned just now amounted to 20 trillion yuan for the urban population, while the rural population only consumed more than 3 billion yuan, while the rural population accounted for more than 40% of our current population, nearly half of the total population of. The consumption ratio of rural population and urban population is only 1: 7. Therefore, I believe that for our consumer goods such as clothing and home textiles, we will not be able to increase domestic consumption if we do not raise the level of consumption in the countryside. Therefore, with the process of urbanization emphasized by the Central Committee, and with the improvement of people's living standards, I hope that the consumption of our rural population can bring our domestic demand to a higher level, hoping that this will be able to stimulate the entire domestic demand market in 2014.