PTA: Limited Drop Space

During the National Day holiday, crude oil prices fell by nearly 6% against the strong dollar and the easing of supply, and the market for chemical products suffered heavy losses after the holidays.

9 days after the opening of PTA futures, the company jumped to the air and went downhill. It ended in a five year low of 5756 yuan / ton on the 10 day.

I believe that the current PTA price has already reflected the market's expectation of PX price, and the downside space is limited.

In September, the load of polyester plant has been maintained at the level of 70%, and the profit of inventory and industrial chain has been maintained well. Especially the recent decline in crude oil has driven down the price of petrochemical raw materials in the whole upstream, but the polyester polyester market has been declining, and pet link profit has climbed to a new high level of 250 yuan / ton in the second half of the year.

Considering that the pressure of polyester link inventory is not large and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is kept at a 5 month high level of 77%, the polyester link start-up load is expected to remain stable, which will effectively support the upstream raw materials PTA and PX links.

Despite the recent restart of Yisheng petrochemical and the PTA repair device of Xiang Lu Petrochemical Company, the overall operating rate of PTA plant jumped by 15 percentage points to 67.7% in the middle of September. Compared with the 72% start-up load of the downstream polyester plant, the PTA factory's low load operation made the finished product inventory at a low level in September.

According to previous logic, PTA futures will continue to go down sharply.

However, I believe that the sharp fall in the PX price in the two quarter is a concern about the release of several new sets of PX capacity in South Korea, as well as the serious loss of production in the PTA factory, and at the same time, the selling of raw materials PX and the excessive pressure on the market. The supply and demand structure of PX at that time was extremely loose.

However, at present, domestic PTA plants have been running at low load for nearly 2 months. The low demand of PX is the consensus of PX businesses. Meanwhile, the new capacity of PX has been released in the year, and the supply and demand situation is clearer.

As a result, the supply of international PX market is generally loose under the drive of profit, but there will not be a serious surplus.

In October, China's CNOOC Huizhou 840 thousand tons PX plant had been shut down for maintenance, and the PX production capacity of Zhenhai Refining and ExxonMobil and Singapore has accumulated 1 million 70 thousand tons. There are also overhaul plans. The new India Oil and Natural Gas Corp's 920 thousand ton MX production PX device has been constantly stopped and repaired due to technical faults. Several sets of MX production PX devices in Korea have been in the state of parking repair due to profit problems.

At the same time, the price of PX rose at a time when the operating rate of domestic PTA factories was increasing. It also indirectly explained the relative balance between PX supply and demand.

At the same time, the buyers and sellers will finalize the ACP negotiations in October at 1210 US dollars / ton, indicating that the main body of the PX market (buyers and sellers) have the will to stabilize the PX market, after all, petro PTA polyester.

The downward trend of prices is unfavorable to the normal operation of the industrial chain.

In the late period, if oil prices fell little, in October, when the ACP negotiations were successful and the supply and demand sides were supported, there was limited space for raw material PX to fall.

On the whole, the smooth operation of PX PTA polyester industry chain is the main keynote.

In this case, if the oil price falls little, the price of PX will drop with limited space.

In addition, the current PTA1501 contract price of 5700 yuan / ton corresponds to the production cost of PX raw material 1040 US dollars / ton, the peak of the US dollar index is peaked, the demand for winter heating oil season in the oil market is expected, and the overall supply and demand of PX is stable. PX prices are hard to break through this position in the year.

Therefore, PTA futures continued to decline in limited space.