Foreign Trade, Quarterly, Good Use Of Foreign Capital To Reduce

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in October 13th, the total value of China's imports and exports was 19 trillion and 400 billion yuan in the first 3 quarters of this year, an increase of 1.8% over the same period last year.

Driven by the decline of base interference, the recovery of external demand and the appearance of dividend policy, China's import and export situation is improving every quarter. The fourth quarter is expected to continue this trend, but the target of achieving the expected growth target of around 7.5% for the whole year is very difficult.

At present, on the basis of maintaining reasonable growth, we should enhance the quality and efficiency of foreign trade development as the main task.

After sweeping the haze of autumn, the foreign trade data released by the General Administration of Customs in October 13th made many market organizations regain confidence.

Data show that in September, China's total import and export value reached 2 trillion and 440 billion yuan, the highest level in the year.

Among them, exports grew by 15.1% in September, and imports increased by 7% year-on-year, exceeding the previous market expectations.

Moreover, imports and exports dropped from 3.8% in the first quarter to 7.2% in the three quarter. The increase is also rare in recent years.

"We hope that this trend of quarterly improvement will continue in the four quarter. We also believe that China's foreign trade will continue to improve in the fourth quarter."

At the news conference held by the State Council Information Office on 13, Zheng Yuesheng, director general of the General Administration of customs and director of the comprehensive statistics department, said.

Three "strong" support rebounded every quarter

It is estimated that the fourth quarter of the import and export trend will continue in the fourth quarter, and the pressure on foreign trade exports is expected to further ease.

The import and export of China has been able to achieve a good turn by quarter, and Zheng Yuesheng believes that it is mainly embodied in the 3 "strength".

First, the confidence in the development of foreign trade enterprises is growing.

Since May, the general office of the State Council has issued several opinions on supporting the steady growth of foreign trade, and the relevant ministries and commissions such as the General Administration of customs and the Ministry of Commerce have issued a series of measures to support the steady growth of foreign trade.

Zheng Yuesheng said that these measures have boosted the confidence of foreign trade enterprises and effectively promoted the steady growth of foreign trade.

It is reported that the leading index of China's foreign trade has remained at a high level for 5 consecutive months.

The second is external demand.

With the gradual decline of the cold weather, the US GDP grew by 4.6% in the two quarter.

The new high in 10 quarters.

In September, Markit, a market research firm, announced that the initial value of PMI in the US manufacturing industry was 57.9, the highest in 4 and a half years.

In the euro area, the comprehensive PMI in September was on the top of the ups and downs line for 14 consecutive months, the unemployment rate was 11.5%, and remained low since September 2012.

At the same time, the recovery momentum of these developed markets is gradually being pmitted to some emerging markets, and external demand has improved significantly.

Three is the reform of customs clearance dividends to promote the important role of foreign trade growth is gradually increasing.

In July 1st, China's cross-border trade e-commerce export unified version of the customs clearance system was formally launched, and achieved convenient customs clearance and effective supervision, which not only enhanced the efficiency of customs clearance, but also reduced the cost of enterprises.

In August 1st, the customs and inspection and quarantine departments cooperate with the "three one" mode, and implement all the goods and goods directly under the customs and inspection and quarantine departments, all customs clearance sites, and all customs declaration and inspection according to law.

At the same time, after a year's operation, the average clearance time of import and export of Shanghai free trade pilot area has decreased by about 40% compared with that of the free trade area, which has effectively saved customs clearance time and logistics cost.

"This good trend is expected to continue in the fourth quarter, especially in terms of exports."

Zheng Yuesheng believes that the pressure of foreign trade exports will be further reduced in the next two or three months.

The unfavorable factors such as accelerating the pfer of manufacturing industry to Southeast Asia and absorbing foreign capital have dropped significantly.

"We should not only see the positive side of promoting the development of foreign trade, but also pay attention to the objective negative effects."

Zheng Yuesheng believes that at present, China's foreign trade is facing unfavorable factors such as the weakening of product competitiveness, the sharp decline in the absorption of foreign capital by the manufacturing sector, and the continuous fall in commodity prices.

With the rapid pfer of manufacturing to neighboring countries such as Southeast Asia in recent years, the international competitiveness of China's export products has been weakened.

A monthly survey of 3000 enterprises shows that about 65% of enterprises reflect the continuous rise of production cost, such as the continuous rise of minimum wage standards, the continuous rise of operating costs of financing and land, as well as the increasing pressure on resources and environment constraints.

With the pfer of China's traditional labor-intensive manufacturing industries, the market share of the 7 categories of labor-intensive products, such as clothing and textiles, has been on the decline in the developed economies.

In the first half of this year, the share of these 7 categories of labor-intensive products accounted for 0.1, 0.4 and 2.8 percentage points respectively in the developed economies of Europe, America and Japan.

In addition, some developed countries' investment in China's manufacturing industry has dropped sharply. Since nearly half of China's exports are created by foreign-invested enterprises, this will form a medium-term constraint on China's exports.

According to statistics, in the first 8 months of this year, the actual utilization of foreign capital in China's manufacturing industry dropped by about 15.7%, of which 7 and August dropped by 17.8% and 29.1% respectively, and fell for 15 consecutive months.

On the other hand, the price of commodities continued to fall, which correspondingly lowered the import value.

In the first 3 quarters, the import prices of major energy resources, such as iron ore, crude oil, copper and soybeans, fell significantly over the same period, and the overall import price level fell 2.6% over the same period, and the monthly import prices had been down for 31 months on the same period.

Zheng Yuesheng said that the decline in import prices of commodities would help improve China's terms of trade, but the decline in prices also slowed down the growth of import value to some extent.

"By the end of September, the World Trade Organization has just lowered the latest forecast data of Global trade growth this year. It is estimated that global trade growth this year is about 3.1%, which is 1.6 percentage points lower than the 4.7% forecast in April.

Risks such as geopolitics and big power relations may also affect the further trend of China's foreign trade.

Zheng Yuesheng said.

Quality and efficiency are more important than speed.

China does not pursue trade surplus, and looks forward to a more balanced, coordinated and sustainable development of trade.

"In the past 3 quarters, to achieve the target of 7.5% growth in foreign trade and import and export, the task is indeed very arduous."

Zheng Yuesheng pointed out that China's foreign trade is in the critical period of shifting gears and structural pformation. Besides paying attention to the speed of development, China should pay more attention to the quality and efficiency of development.

According to customs data, the value of imports and exports, exports and imports increased by 3.3%, 5.1% and 1.3% respectively in the first 3 quarters of this year.

Analysts said that in the first 3 quarters, China's import and export growth rate was only 3.23%, and the target of 7.5% growth in the whole year was hard to achieve.

In this regard, Zheng Yuesheng believes that 7.5% of the year's foreign trade development goal is actually an "expected target", "this goal is indeed very important, but I hope you can realize that China's foreign trade development has entered the middle and high speed growth stage from the high speed growth stage in the past".

Insiders pointed out that in addition to the obvious improvement of external demand, the policies and measures that the State supports the steady growth of foreign trade are gradually put into place. The rapid development of cross-border e-commerce, the acceleration of the replication and promotion of Shanghai free trade zone experience, and the promotion of the strategy of "one way, one belt" and "Yangtze River Economic Belt" will bring substantial benefits to China's foreign trade development.

Zheng Yuesheng stressed that China does not pursue the trade surplus, and looks forward to a more balanced, coordinated and sustainable development of trade.