Gui Haoming: The Upward Trend Of The Market Is A Major Trend.

　　 A shares The reason why executives reduce their holdings: tuition fees for children

2400 challenges

The market has always been "golden nine silver ten" theory, meaning that every year in 9 and October, the market will tend to be better. Now that September's rise has become history, what will happen in October?

In the view of many investors, the stock market will further strengthen in October, which is indeed the same impression from the first trading day of the month. However, the description of the market in October may be more precise.

Despite the fact that the stock market did continue to rise in October, the possibility of challenging 2400 points and even higher positions also existed. But it is undeniable that the possibility of some adjustment is not small here, and because of various uncertainties, there may be a lot of repeated dishonesty during this period. It is unlikely that such an almost unilateral rise in September will emerge again.

September equity market A big reason for this is that people are looking forward to accelerating the reform at the fourth plenary session. Although many of the economic data seen in September were not ideal, some people even began to worry about whether the economy would "hard landing". However, based on the anticipation of the reform dividend, the market has successively appeared on the theme of the state capital reform, land reform, and scientific research system reform, which has driven the strong upward trend of the market. It is doubtful whether these plates will be able to make further efforts in October when the Fourth Plenary Session of the fourth plenary session is to be held. After all, the relevant benefits have been well known and have been fully digested in the market, unless the fourth plenary session proposes an ultra expected reform goal. Therefore, it is unlikely that the market will do more articles on this matter. Of course, it is very likely that the market will come to the node where the meeting is held, because there is a large concussion between the two sides.

　　 Shanghai-Hongkong Stock Connect Influence ups and downs

In addition, October is also the time when the Shanghai and Hong Kong through the formal opening of the proposed plan. Due to the launch of the Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong news, the stock market has seen several waves of rising prices in April, July and September. It should be said that the short-term effect of Shanghai and Hong Kong has basically been released, and its long-term effects will take a long time. Some investors hope that after the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong, a large number of foreign investors will enter the domestic market through this channel. In fact, the funds that they really want to enter may come in early in the current connection between domestic and foreign markets. Because of this, some people now suspect that when the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges are opened, the stock market will probably fall sharply.

In fact, although Shanghai and Hong Kong is indeed an important factor to drive the stock market up, the Shanghai and Hong Kong concept stocks in the standard sense have not increased much in the recent period, and some foreign capital has also been absent in September. Therefore, after the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong, the market will not continue to rise, but at the same time, it will not continue to fall.

　　 Upward trend

In October, the three quarter GDP data will be released. It should be said that the market's prediction of this data may be relatively close, but the problem is the association produced after the publication of the data. For example, will the central bank cut interest rates and reduce the accuracy? Will fiscal policy continue to have larger movements? Undoubtedly, these associations will also constraining investors' operational mood to a large extent. If a certain view prevailed, its influence on the market should not be underestimated. This uncertainty also became another factor in the stock market turmoil in October.

Now, the whole environment is more conducive to the rise of the stock market, which has always been worried about the stock market capital situation, and now it seems that there has been some improvement. In terms of the shape of the disk operation, the market has not been completed since September. The stock index has a great probability of trying 2400 points in October and hopes to go higher. Just because the changes in external conditions, especially those which will seriously affect the market trend, will be fulfilled, so the operation of the market will become complicated and inevitable.

Of course, the concussion is temporary, and the upward trend of the market is a major trend. Therefore, as an investor, the operation strategy in October should be prudent and not blindly catching up, but dare to absorb the callbacks. At the same time, we must stick to the idea of theme investment, and actively look for potential growth stocks to carry out key operations and strive to achieve profits beyond the market.