Don'T Tangle The "0.1" Behind GDP Data.

Pain spot

The latest GDP growth figures for the three quarter were 7.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from 7.5% in the two quarter.

National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Sheng Lai Yun pointed out that, in addition to the higher base factor in the same period last year, mainly due to the three phase of the three quarter superimposed (growth rate shift period, structural adjustment pains, pre stimulus policy digestion period) pressure, structural adjustment pains beyond expectations.

About the pain point of labor pains, Sheng Lai Yun said that it mainly manifested in overcapacity and real estate cooling. These two factors affected the production, consumption and investment of related enterprises.

Although the real estate data in September have not yet been released, but from the 7 and 8 months, the housing prices in most cities decreased and the number of cities increased year by year. Although the real estate market was running smoothly, the high growth rate just a few years ago was hard to reproduce, and the overall demand for upstream industries such as steel, coal, cement and so on also weakened correspondingly.

Prices of commodities such as coal, steel and nonferrous metals have continued to decline this year.

Take rebar as an example, it has even fallen below 3000 yuan per ton in recent years, and even the media has calculated that the price of each catty steel is no different from that of Chinese cabbage.

But even so, some of these traditional industries are still trapped in the "more surplus, more production" of the vicious circle.

Sheng Lai Yun said at the press conference that some iron and steel enterprises had to continue production because of the fact that the cost of fixed costs had to be apportioned and so on. According to incomplete statistics from the iron and Steel Association, the annual production capacity of China's steel exceeded 10 billion tons, far exceeding the market demand.

"In this case, it is more difficult to go out of production and go out of stock in this case than it used to be, and it lasted longer than before." Sheng Lai Yun pointed out that this is why the producer price (PPI) of the entire industrial producer has continued to grow negatively in the context of continuous decline in commodity prices.

The embodiment of contradictions.

Dispel doubts

The most concern for public opinion "

The growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points over the two quarter, "Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of galaxy securities, said in an interview with Xinhua net reporter." some people like to speculate on the decimal points of China's GDP, which is unscientific.

China's economic growth is between 7%-8%, and there is no obvious problem of economic downward pressure.

From the new normal perspective, China's economy is indeed undergoing a series of major and profound changes.

Ma Shuanyou, director of the Department of economic prediction of the Ministry of finance, said that although economic growth has dropped, "flexible growth, high employment and low inflation" are the highlights of China's current economic operation, indicating that structural adjustment has been effective and economic vitality has been enhanced.

Li Yining, a famous economist, also believes that the super high speed growth of the economy is "abnormal". Today's "new normal" should appropriately reduce the growth rate of GDP.

"Structural adjustment is more important than economic aggregate." Li Yining said that missed the best period of structural adjustment, leaving many sequelae, and now we have to put the adjustment structure in an important position again.

If China missed this round of structural adjustment, it would be the biggest loss.

"The stamina of China's economic development also depends on the process of economic pformation". In the view of Zhuang Jian, senior economist at the Asian Development Bank's representative office in China, the future growth point should be in two aspects: domestic demand and innovation.

In terms of domestic demand, China should tilt towards consumption and tilt towards rural development.

The growth of great potential; innovation, from the upper middle income to the high income countries, the need for technological innovation and labor productivity increase.

Bright spot

In the three quarter, economic growth continued to slow down. In the 1-9 months, more than 10 million new employees were employed in cities and towns, 3 months ahead of schedule, and in the three quarter, the per capita disposable income of the whole population increased by 8.2% in real terms, which successfully won the GDP and revenue.

Behind these two bright data are closely related to many important changes in China's economic structure:

First, changes in the industrial structure.

Data show that the first three quarters of 2014, the third industry added value of 196125 billion yuan, an increase of 7.9% over the same period last year.

More than second industries 0.5 percentage points, far more than the 4.2% growth of the primary industry.

The pulling effect of the service industry on employment is well known. Many experts and scholars who interviewed by the media have indicated that the decentralization and decentralization measures such as the reform of the industrial and commercial registration system have created space for the small and micro enterprises and private enterprises mostly engaged in the service sector at the policy level.

Second, changes in supply and demand in the labor market.

With the decline of the proportion and absolute quantity of labor resources at the age of 15-59, the structure of labor resources is undergoing profound changes.

From the perspective of supply, this change and pition brought about an increase in labor costs, including migrant workers. Even if the economic growth rate declined this year, the average monthly income of migrant workers increased by 10% over the same period last year. Two, while the economic growth rate declined, employment remained stable.

Thirdly, the proportion of residents' income in the primary distribution of national economy has increased.

When we see that the national residents' income outperforms the GDP, we should also note that the growth rate of residents' income is higher than that of the fiscal revenue growth and the profit growth of enterprises. This means that the proportion of residents' income in the primary distribution of the national economy is increasing.

In this regard, Wu Weixing, Dean of the school of finance, University of International Business and Economics, pointed out that efficiency and equity are the basic principles of the initial distribution. Therefore, the main goal of our current initial distribution should be to increase the proportion of the residents' income in the initial distribution, and to reduce the proportion of the state and enterprises, and the new data strongly convey the signal of reasonable adjustment.

Micro commentary: when China's economy is healthy

Puffiness.

This is the adjective that the public opinion gives to its crown when GDP surges forward. However, in the critical period of pformation and upgrading, the word has rarely been heard, instead of "labor pains", "downlinks", "hard landing" and so on.

Fat or pain is actually the "GDP complex" in deep brain.

In fact, it is always nervous for the fluctuation of the number. It is better to see how a fat person can lower blood fat, lower blood pressure, muscle and fat.

It will be very difficult to put this idea on how to reduce it reasonably and healthily and reduce it in a systematic way.

The fat people will turn the fat into strength, and they will need a long-term mechanism and rules, and stick to this idea.

Sometimes, a sentence "you are thin" is really more than ten million words "I love you".