Xiao Xinyan: Watch Out For False Trade Coming Back

In 1-10 months, China's total import and export volume was US $3 trillion and 530 billion 570 million, an increase of 3.8% over the same period last year (the same below). Among them, exports amounted to 1 trillion and 903 billion 840 million US dollars, an increase of 5.8%; imports of US $1 trillion and 626 billion 730 million, an increase of 1.6%; Balance of trade surplus 277 billion 110 million dollars. However, a detailed analysis shows that the export rebound may include false trade factors.

From a cumulative perspective, the first ten months of mechanical and electrical products were lower than the total export growth rate by 3.1 percentage points, and labor-intensive products were only 0.5 percentage points higher than the export growth rate. In 9 and 10 two months, the export growth rates of the two major categories of export commodities were lower than the overall growth rate. In contrast, precious metals and precious metals jewelry exported to US $38 billion 630 million in 1-10, up 67.6% over the same period last year. Export in 7-10 months Amount of money Year-on-year growth of 136%, 126%, 678% and 187% respectively, and the monthly export price increased by 114%, 162%, 243% and 91% respectively. Such a price trend is obviously contrary to the declining trend of gold prices in the international market, so it is impossible to rule out the possibility of false trade.

In addition to the possibility of false trade from a commodity perspective, it can also be verified from a regional perspective. In 9 and October, the monthly growth rate of China's exports to Hongkong was 34% and 24% respectively. The main area of arbitrage trade last year was Hongkong. Therefore, we hope that relevant departments will strengthen monitoring and do well in prevention and control.

Look forward to the future Exit From the export index, the global manufacturing industry is still expanding, but the process is slow. In October, the global manufacturing PMI was 52.2, unchanged from last month. In October, the PMI of China's manufacturing industry dropped to 50.8, a new low of nearly 5 months. The new order index was 51.6, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, indicating that the market demand expansion trend has not changed, but the growth rate has slowed down. The new export orders index is 49.9, located near the critical value. Fourth quarter export growth has a certain objective basis, but the external demand environment is unstable, indicating that there may be fluctuations in exports. Judging from the 116th Canton Fair, it is not optimistic. The number of purchasers decreased by 1.07% compared with the previous one. Besides the growth of European buyers, the buyers of other continents showed a downward trend. The transaction volume decreased by 6.1% compared with the previous one, and nearly half signed the short list within 3 months. Taking into account the Spring Festival in 2014 in January, December 2013 will absorb part of the export energy of January. But in 2015 the Spring Festival in February, this absorption capacity will be transferred to January 2015, indirectly leading to 2014 2014 export will not appear larger growth last year. And the same period last year, the higher the base, the possibility of exit in 2014 is unlikely.

On the import side, with the steady growth of domestic income and consumption, the import will be bound to pull. However, the slowdown in fixed asset investment shows a slight shortage of import growth. The international commodity price index BPI has dropped to a record low in recent years. The international commodity market price will enter the downstream channel and will inhibit the growth of imports. The good thing about imports is that in order to implement a positive import promotion strategy, facilitate trade facilitation and improve the trade environment, the general office of the State Council recently issued some opinions on strengthening imports. This policy mainly includes expanding the import of advanced technology and equipment and key components, stabilizing the import of domestic resources, reasonably increasing the import of general consumer goods, vigorously developing the import of service trade, and facilitating import trade facilitation. These eight aspects will play a positive role in promoting stable and balanced development of imports and exports, optimizing foreign trade structure and enhancing competitiveness. But the fermentation of this policy will take some time, and the promotion of imports will not necessarily appear in the fourth quarter.