Downstream Industry Boom, PTA Price Is Not A Dream.

New York crude oil futures price fell from the highest 104.32 U.S. dollars / barrel in late June to the current US $75 / barrel. The price of domestic PTA futures began to decline from crude oil prices in August. The price of the main 1501 contract fell to 5316 yuan / ton, which was 1840 yuan lower than the August high price of 7156 yuan / ton, or 25.7%, and then rebounded.

In fact, since 2011, the PTA industry has entered a long bear Road, and almost every year there is a new low. However, from 2012, once the price of PTA has dropped significantly, the domestic PTA production, trade and consumption enterprises will enter the contraction state together: PTA manufacturers will reduce their own starting rate, traders will reduce procurement, urgent shipment, polyester or weaving factories' low price promotion or subsidized sales promotion, and make sure that the downstream customers will have a long-term source of supply and consolidate their market share while ensuring that their capital chain is not in question.

According to past years, the prosperity of polyester industry is directly proportional to the price of PTA, the price rebounded, and industrial funds began to be active; on the contrary, the industry was in danger and the industry funds were cautious.

This year, the environment of the entire PTA industry has changed. The sharp fall from August to November has cast a shadow on the PTA industry. In the whole September, the PTA downstream plant started at a rate of only 60%. Due to the shrinking demand for downstream plants, the PTA factory's production load is also difficult to effectively increase, and the operating rate basically stays at around 65%. Compared to previous years, the PTA consumption season this year can be said to be dismal.

Into the October, upstream of PTA Raw material price Plummet. Although the prices of related products in the PTA industry have also dropped to varying degrees, the high profit margins after the crash have been opened. According to statistics, in the first half of October, international crude oil prices fell by 18.9%, naphtha prices fell from 828.25 US dollars / ton to 693 US dollars / ton, or 17%, PX prices fell 19%, PTA prices fell 16%, slicing prices fell 12% downstream, filament prices (represented by POY) fell by 11%, and subsequent product FDY and DTY prices fell even lower.

From the above data, we can see that in this downward trend, the decline of upstream petrochemical products prices is 5 to 8 percentage points higher than that of downstream products. This is because the factor of crude oil price decline is gradually digested at every level of product, resulting in a relatively limited price decline near terminal products. On the other hand, the price of upstream raw material products has dropped too much, and the profit margins of downstream industries have gradually increased.

For textile and chemical industry enterprises, production profit is undoubtedly the most attractive, and the deeper the price of upstream products, the greater the profits. In this way, PTA manufacturers and downstream polyester and weaving factories will open up their profit margins after a difficult period of time, and their production enthusiasm will be significantly improved, and the situation of the entire textile industry will be improved.

Up to now, PTA The factory's start-up load is around 76%, and the start-up rate of the polyester plant is also rising. Around 75%, the weaving plant's operating rate is even closer to 80%. At the same time, the production and sales rate of factories has gradually increased. The proportion of factory production and sales in Zhejiang's Xiaoshan and Shaoxing regions is basically around 200%, and the purchase of downstream buyers is more active than before.

Whereas Downstream market Gradually active, and such a boom will last for some time, and the short-term favorable factors in the PTA market have emerged. Before the end of the year, the low or the bottom of the PTA futures price. If the international crude oil price can be maintained at more than 70 US dollars / barrel, then the price of PTA can hardly be lower.