Ye Tan: How Much Do You Know About China'S Gold Reserves?

Without data, we can only guess, if speculation is established, we can find clues to the process of RMB internationalization.

According to the people's Bank of China, by the end of 2013, the official gold reserve was still flat at 1054 tons.

The way to meet China's gold demand can be quantified mainly into the following parts: Gold delivered by the Shanghai gold exchange and eventually flows to the public; gold imported from China's Hongkong; gold changes in stock of Shanghai gold exchange; gold recovered again; and gold produced by China.

Analysts are speculating that China's gold reserves have skyrocketed.

In April 7th this year, goldmoney columnist AlasdairMacleod wrote that since January 2008, the gold trading volume of the Shanghai gold exchange has risen from 362 tons per quarter to 1100 tons per month, and the delivery volume has increased from 44 tons per month to 212 tons.

It is worth noting that the volume of trading began to rise rapidly from the decline of international gold prices in April 2013.

Since January 2008, the Shanghai gold exchange has delivered a total of 6776 tons of gold, which is inflow into the public.

The delivery data of Shanghai gold exchange are popular.

The root lies in the 2013 gold demand report released by the world gold association in February. China has only 1066 tons, while the Shanghai gold exchange is as high as 2097 tons. The difference between the two countries is 1051 tons, far exceeding the level of 200 tons 5 years ago.

Therefore, the two analysts of harelynx.com and Bulionstar.com, NickLaird and KoosJansen, closely follow the data of the Shanghai gold exchange, which is the first stop for the import of gold and domestic minerals, and is relatively accurate.

The Shanghai gold exchange has more deliveries than the London gold and silver market.

The premium level of the price is that the delivery data of the Shanghai gold exchange is exactly the same as China's overall gold demand, which is a better indicator.

Different speculation data are different, almost certainly, whether official or private, China's gold reserves have an astonishing growth.

AlasdairMacleod pointed out that in 2013, China's gold demand jumped to 4843 tons, up from the same period last year.

And the data may be more conservative, because it does not include the Chinese government's purchase and storage of gold in London and other places.

GrantWiliams8, a fund manager of Ling fox group in Singapore, said in a posting published in GrantWiliams8 month that he deduced from the statistical data of gold researcher KoosJansen China gold that data from China gold import and the whole consumption data from China Gold organization can be learned or estimated from the data released by the Shanghai gold exchange.

He proposed the Central Bank of China.

The total volume is close to 15000 tons, which excludes private reserves.

This is a surprising amount. It is not necessarily objective to consider that GrantWiliams is a golden bull.

The latest and largest

It came from KoosJansen, the inventor of Shanghai's delivery data analysis.

In November 24th, he blogged, speculates from the daily Shanghai gold exchange, that gold reserves are now far more than 1054.1 tons officially announced, with an annual increase of 1761 tons and 1746 tons.

If the official data released in 2009 are accurate, that is to say, China's gold reserves far exceed Russia, and become a real supporter.

In the long run, Jansen's data indicate that since 1995, the total number of gold reserves in China (without entering the market, may enter directly into China's reserves), plus the estimated value of imported gold, about 8000 tons to 9000 tons. If these gold really enter the central bank, China's gold reserves can be comparable to that of the United States.