The RMB Exchange Rate Shows Obvious Two-Way Fluctuation Characteristics.

In March, where the RMB exchange rate went to the conference call, we analyzed that the rapid depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in February probably came from the active intervention of the central bank.

When the economy stabilizes and the central bank intervens and withdraws, the RMB exchange rate will stabilise and pick up momentum. This is expected to happen at the end of the 2 quarter.

As a matter of fact, the RMB exchange rate stabilized at the end of May, and moved into the appreciation channel at the beginning of June, a little earlier than we expected.

In the 7-10 month, against the backdrop of the strong US dollar and the continued fall in the emerging exchange rate index, the relative appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar was quite strong.

During the period, the appreciation pressure of the renminbi may come mainly from the withdrawal of the central bank's intervention, which can be verified in the 7-10 consecutive months of zero growth in the central bank's foreign exchange assets.

In November, the yuan began to weaken relative to the US dollar and synchronized with the exchange rate trend of other emerging countries.

During the evening of November 21st, the people's Bank of China announced the interest rate cut and the large capital outflow of emerging countries since the end of November, which aggravated the devaluation pressure of the RMB exchange rate.

In the short term, the trend of depreciation of the RMB exchange rate may continue.

Four, Russia's economic and financial situation is grim, and the global financial market turmoil has dropped since the fall of crude oil in July. The situation facing Russia is most serious.

In November 27th, OPEC ministerial meeting decided to maintain crude oil production unchanged, then OPEC lowered the demand for global crude oil. Under this background, ruble accelerated its depreciation and accelerated its decline.

On December 15th, the Russian Central Bank announced

We will raise the benchmark interest rate (refinancing rate) by 650 basis points to 17% at a time to defend the rouble.

In fact, since the end of November, not only Russia, but also emerging markets are facing massive capital outflows.

The emerging exchange rate index fell sharply, the stock market began to adjust and then fell sharply, and bond yields also rose sharply.

In the financial markets of developed countries, the risk preference also dropped sharply. The stock market began to adjust after the end of November, and accelerated in the middle of December.

There has also been a slight increase since the end of November.

The decline in crude oil has increased the risk of economic and financial turmoil in emerging countries, especially some oil producing countries, which has brought uncertainty to short-term global economic growth.

The US industrial output growth in November, the initial consumer confidence index in December and the number of initial claims in recent weeks all exceeded market expectations, and most of the economic data were positive.

The Fed's interest conference met a moderate tone and basically met market expectations.

Positive economic data and moderate interest conference statement prompted us stocks to stabilize.

Europe, December

PMI of the manufacturing sector rebounded slightly.

The market expects that, despite resistance, the ECB will still be able to successfully release quantitative easing in the late January.

In December 18th, the SNB also announced interest rate cuts to enter the era of excess reserves.

Since December 9th, the A share index platform has been sorted out, and the peripheral market has fallen.

The AH premium index reached 122 in December 18th, the highest level since the end of 2011.