Cotton Sales Progressively Accelerate

Since the beginning of this year, the downstream purchasing of cotton has not been prosperous, and the sales data are poor.

But recently, under the stimulation of the new sales quota policy of Xinjiang cotton, the sales progress has obviously accelerated, the domestic cotton prices have stabilized gradually, the market mentality has improved, and some external stimulation factors are expected to push the price rise steadily.

In the early part of this year, sales of new cotton were dismal, and sales data decreased significantly.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system, as of October 31, 2014, the sale of new cotton was only 304 thousand tons, down 886 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, which is 875 thousand tons less than that in the past four years.

There are two reasons for the poor sales data.

First, cotton prices have been falling this year, and businesses are afraid to hoard cotton in large quantities.

Inventory is generally maintained at 15 to 30 days of cotton consumption.

Two, the new flower listing this year has been delayed for more than half a month compared with the previous years, and has also resulted in a smaller sales volume than in previous years.

Because

Poor, the country intends to promote sales by selling the new frontier cotton tying quotas, especially in the two weeks before the new year's day.

Up to 600 thousand tons.

At the same time, the normal replenishment of textile enterprises has played a certain role in improving sales volume.

In addition, under the pressure of financial pressure, the sale of ginning plants has attracted a large number of textile enterprises and traders.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system, as of December 31, 2014, the total sales of lint 2 million 20 thousand tons, which means that in November and December two months, a total of 1 million 700 thousand tons of cotton sales.

The rational analysis of the data embodies two aspects.

First, textile enterprises purchased some cotton in advance because of the demand for import quotas, which did not reflect actual demand.

The two is to reflect the increment of normal business demand. This year, domestic textile enterprises are facing many favorable information, and the demand is also improved.

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Crude oil fell to more than half of its current high of 50 yuan per barrel from 113 yuan / barrel in July last year.

The decline in crude oil came from a substantial increase in the supply side.

Shale oil in the United States will not cut production, which can be seen from the history of shale gas production and price movements.

Moreover, for the long term resource goods, the lower the price, the more power output will increase.

As recently announced in December last year, the output of Russia and Iraq, the former hit a new high since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and a record high export level in southern Iraq.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, has repeatedly indicated that it will not cut production.

As the world's largest consumer of crude oil, the United States is also the main producer of the crude oil production, and the situation is not optimistic.

The US Department of energy data showed that crude oil and refined oil business inventories (excluding about 700 million barrels of strategic oil reserves) were slightly below 1 billion 140 million barrels level as of last 12 months.

More important than absolute inventory level is the change in business inventories last month. In December, US crude oil and refined oil business inventories rose.

It is worth noting that refineries usually reduce their inventories at the end of the year to reduce taxes as much as possible, but inventories rose at the end of last year.

Looking back on history, from 1980 to now, there were only two crude oil inventories in December, one was the 2008 financial crisis, the other was last year.

Excluding these two years, the average stock in 1980 has fallen by nearly 32 million barrels since December.

On the other hand, the International Energy Agency estimates that global oil consumption will drop by nearly 1 million barrels in the first quarter of this year compared with the fourth quarter of last year.

Therefore, under the high inventory structure, the demand side is also weak, and the crude oil decline is still not over.