Zhengzhou Cotton Futures Enter A Temporary Calm Period.

In general, the global cotton market demand is more than the demand of the situation, the international market cotton decline should not be quickly changed, while domestic cotton prices experienced a fall in 2014, the price difference with the international market cotton prices have narrowed a lot, but the price advantage of imported cotton is still in, its pressure on the domestic cotton price will not be eliminated.

The oversupply of basic supply has led to the weakening of cotton prices. Judging from the supply and demand situation of cotton market, the supply and demand of global cotton in 2014/2015 will be in surplus for fifth consecutive years. Oversupply will lead to the continued weakening of cotton prices.

According to the latest data released by the USDA monthly supply and demand report, it is estimated that the total output of cotton in the 2014/2015 will reach 25 million 946 thousand tons, up 41 thousand tons from the previous month, and the total consumption of the world will be 24 million 437 thousand tons, down 79 thousand tons from last month, with the surplus being 1 million 510 thousand tons and the end of the term. Stock It will increase to 23 million 653 thousand tons, and inventory consumption is expected to be 96.8%.

Domestically, due to the decline in planting area, the new year cotton It will basically be in a state of balance between supply and demand, but huge inventory is a pressure factor that can not be ignored in the domestic cotton market. According to the monthly report of the US Department of agriculture, China's cotton inventory is expected to be 13 million 750 thousand tons in the new year, and more than half of the world's inventory is in China. In 2014/2015, China's inventory consumption ratio is as high as 172.8%.

　　 oil price The decline makes the price advantage of alternatives more obvious. Crude oil prices continue to create a new low, the downstream products of p-xylene (PX), terephthalic acid (PTA) price pressure, and PX, PTA is the main raw material of chemical fiber.

Under the influence of the continuous decline of raw material cost, the market price of its downstream products will be lower. The above chemical fiber products are the main substitute for cotton fiber. The price will have an impact on the cotton market, which will affect the downstream consumption demand of cotton and have a negative impact on cotton prices.

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The quantity of imported yarn in Guangzhou port was about 12 thousand tons, about 2 thousand tons lower than that before half a month ago. The main source countries and regions are India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Taiwan and so on.

The quantity of imported yarn in Shanghai port is about 11 thousand tons, about 1 thousand tons less than half a month ago. The main source countries are India, Pakistan and the United States.

The quantity of imported yarn in Qingdao port was about 10 thousand tons, about 1 thousand tons lower than that before half a month ago. The main source countries are India and Pakistan.

The quantity of imported yarn in Zhangjiagang is about 9 thousand tons, about 1 thousand tons less than half a month ago. The main source countries are India, Pakistan, Indonesia and Uzbekistan.

The quantity of imported yarn in Ningbo port was about 8 thousand tons, which changed little compared with half a month ago. The main source countries are India, Pakistan and other places.

Recently, the number of printed yarns has been reduced, and the supply of Pakistan yarn has increased slightly. It is estimated that the arrival volume of the forward spring yarn will continue to decrease. Traders can see that as of 13 days, the price of imported combed ring spinning 21s is between 18400-19500 yuan / ton, and the price difference between domestic yarn and domestic yarn is over 1000 yuan / ton, which will continue to pressure domestic yarn.