Cotton Market Is Expected To Be Dominated By Weak Shocks Before The Spring Festival.

In January 7th, ICE cotton increased slightly, but the main contract rose 0.23 cents to 60.43 cents / pound in March.

Recently, the contract continued to fluctuate at a price of 60 cents.

In January 8th, Zheng cotton closed 13010 yuan / ton in the past 1501 contracts, a small increase of 10 yuan / ton, and the main 1505 contract closed 13145 yuan / ton, slightly up 15 yuan / ton.

Recently, Zheng cotton continued to run on top of 13000 yuan / ton, but the market lacked good news and could not provide sustained support for Zheng cotton, and its price was weak.

At present, Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and other main ports bonded cotton stocks are low.

With the purchase, the turnover is light.

Textile enterprises are mainly concerned about high quality cotton, Australia cotton SM 1-5/32 level quote 17500 yuan / ton line, the quality deviation quotes 17100-17200 yuan / ton, but the port as a whole is left with very few Australian cotton, India new flower quality quoted price 14000-14200 yuan / ton, Chen cotton 13500-13800 yuan / ton majority.

Traders reflect that at present, the price of Australian cotton is still low because of its low inventory, and there is a downward trend in India cotton prices regardless of new cotton and Chen cotton.

1. Xinjiang's cotton production is below 4 million tons. The speech was broken, but the demand for cotton was not good. The sales of cotton were slow and the uplink of cotton was suppressed.

According to the data, as of January 7th, the processing volume in Xinjiang has reached 4 million 80 thousand tons, thus the market is widely adjusted to estimate the output of Xinjiang cotton in 2014. At present, the market is more than 420-450 million tons.

This greatly exceeds the previous market estimate of Xinjiang cotton output at 4 million tons or 3 million 800 thousand tons.

As of the first half of January, the sales of Xinjiang cotton reached about about 1000000 tons in 2014/15, and a large quantity of cotton remained in the hands of cotton traders or cotton companies.

According to the feedback from textile manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, first, the price of yarn has been dropping more recently. In the two weeks since 2015, the overall price of conventional yarn has dropped by 100-200 yuan / ton, and the individual yarn has fallen by 300-400 yuan / ton; second, the order is still dominated by small orders and short orders.

Third, as domestic cotton fell sharply from the grid, and the quota was relatively small, the textile enterprises changed their distribution of cotton in succession. The main performance was that in addition to individual high quality and high count yarn, most of them began to choose Xinjiang cotton and real estate cotton.

As the Spring Festival draws near, the pressure of manufacturers to repay loans is rising, demand for cash is increasing, and Spring Festival holidays are facing in February. Therefore, spot trading in 2015 and 2015 will be at a standstill and postponed, and sales pressure will increase after the Spring Festival.

In the domestic market downturn, cotton uplink is inhibited.

2. the gap between inside and outside is narrowed, and the demand for cotton is reduced under the background of quota control.

From the end of spring to the present, the international cotton price has dropped from 90 cents / pound to the current 60 cents / pound line.

1% under the tariff, the difference of cotton price between inside and outside has been reduced to 2000 yuan / ton interval.

In addition, China has cut quotas. Apart from 894 thousand tons, the principle no longer extends other quotas, but also adds bad profits to foreign cotton.

Three, expected before the Spring Festival, cotton is still dominated by weak shocks.

The 1.ICE cotton will continue to oscillate between the 60 US districts. Because the price is close to the cost of cotton farmers, the support force will be strong.

2. the main port logistics area of China will not reach much port before the Spring Festival, and the turnover will be reduced. Due to good quality, small quantity, and high price, the US cotton and Australian cotton products are expected to be sold in India in January.

3. the paction in the bonded area is still the mainstream, but the quota will only be sent to the enterprises in late January.