The "Mother Country Effect" Opens Up The New Era Of Women'S Clothing And Causes The Concern Of Women'S Designer Brand.

2020

The market is expected to exceed trillion: according to the Euromonitor forecast, the retail sales of domestic clothing will reach 2 trillion and 100 billion yuan by 2018.

We assume that the proportion of Chinese women's clothing consumption will be increased by 5 percentage points in the next 5 years. According to the estimation of the sales volume of women's clothing, men's wear and children's clothing, they are 58%, 32% and 10% respectively. In 2018, domestic sales of women's clothing are expected to reach 1 trillion and 260 billion yuan, corresponding to the annual compound growth rate of about 8.5%.

Women's clothing is difficult to produce "public demand".

Group operation is the only way to widen the market: age structure, national characteristics, income level, fashion acceptance and so on have all resulted in the diversity of women's positioning, styles and grades. The minority demand of female consumers has decided that multi brand management is the direction of women's clothing enterprises' sustainable development.

Referring to the development process of LVMH group, we believe that the focus of future multi brand operation of women's clothing is whether we can achieve a continuous growth momentum of "ladder shape". The effect of "portfolio" of domestic women's clothing companies increasing their brands through their own cultivation or acquisition will gradually appear in the coming years.

The gradual maturity of designer brand and brand collection store: the "national Mother effect" has attracted the attention of women's designer brand. According to statistics, there are less than 200 independent designer brands.

Most designer brands are still in the second stage of commercial development (brand operation stage), and lack of cultural deposits. Therefore, the collection store can provide market feedback for designers during the incubation period, reduce the pressure of financial, management and negotiation in the initial stage of brand development. Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of shopping centers strengthens the ability of brand collection shops to concentrate specific consumer groups, and fills the vacancies in our "buying system". In the future, the pattern of designer brand and collection store will gradually mature in China's women's clothing industry.

Full channel retail era, offline grasp

On line, we pay attention to the experiential consumption characteristics of O2O: women's clothing, making it a clothing sub category suitable for shopping center format. At present, women's clothing sales account for over 50% in the shopping center.

In terms of online layout, we believe that the fast fashion brands with low and middle location are more likely to break through the electricity supplier, which is a breakthrough for high-end women's clothing, service and mobile clients or brand O2O.

The T2O mode of TV and electric business cooperation is more suitable for the fashionable young women's clothing brand.

The competition pattern of the industry is scattered, and the trend of fast fashion is increasing. In 2013, the total market share of the top ten brands of women's wear industry was only 20.43%.

Among them, luxury women's clothing has obvious brand barriers, the top 5 brands occupy nearly 60%, at present, the growth rate of anti-corruption and purchasing will be slowed down; high-end women's clothing is benefited from consumption upgrading and differentiation competition, which has been improved in recent years; less ladies dress is subject to competition of fast fashion category, and has higher demand for brand competitiveness; fast fashion and e-commerce brand still achieve the trend of growth by virtue of parity, fashion and quick reaction.

Investment advice: in recent years, excellent women's clothing brands have landed in the capital market. Mass Phil, Song Li Si, Xin he shares and Taiping birds are queuing up for IPO, and the targets are gradually enriched.

We believe that in the future, besides the focus on inventory, supply chain and store management, long-term attention should be paid to the choice of subdivided industries and the endogenous growth of brand combinations.

Recommended companies: Langer and Wien.

Risk warning: 1) brand ladder layout promotes risk; 2) consumer environment continues to deteriorate risks; 3) corporate governance risks.