PTA Storage Capacity Raises Concerns

The reporter understands, in the middle of this month, a number of customers have reflected to some Futures Company that "now the positions are so large, the storage capacity is limited, and how can they be delivered at that time?" in fact, this worry is not without reason.

Since March, the price of PTA futures has been oscillating downward trend driven by crude oil prices, but the position of PTA futures has increased continuously in the middle of the year, and has reached a record high of 2 million 64 thousand hands in March 20th.

Although it has entered the stage of shifting the warehouse for a month, PTA futures's main 1505 contracts remain at 1 million 100 thousand hands, becoming the few major positions in the futures market in recent months.

"The reason for the high position of the 1505 contract in recent months is that the two sides have greater differences and each has their own reasons."

Wang Guangqian, a futures analyst at Soochow, told reporters that most of the funds were speculative funds, and there were institutional funds to hedge against international crude oil.

With the international crude oil prices falling to the bottom of 2008, many sides have sought to make a copy of the PTA's high correlation with crude oil price fluctuations.

While the empty side believes that PTA has a serious excess capacity, and futures prices continue to rise, the industry chain capital short profitable, and can get risk-free arbitrage profits.

It is worth noting that

We want to throw the spot into the futures market, but there are many industries.

But before the delivery, there was no reservation to the storage capacity. The tension of storage capacity caused the market's attention.

According to the statistics of the exchange, as of March 20th, the registered warehouse receipts in the PTA futures delivery warehouse amounted to 68842, an increase of 800 pieces compared with the previous day, with an effective forecast of 21923 and a total of 90765.

The current PTA1505 contract holds more than 116 hands, holding more than 580 thousand positions on one side, and holding positions unilaterally.

The ratio is over 6:1, at a higher level.

In fact, there have been huge deliveries in history.

"At the end of November 2013, the PTA1401 contract was held at 400 thousand hand level, and the warehouse receipt volume was only 1 000 hands, and there was a huge gap between positions and warehouse receipts."

Wang Guangqian introduced that the spot price of PTA was at a relatively high level, and the PTA factory operation rate was higher, PTA social inventory was at a high level, and the market was relatively empty for the PX price in 2014, and the trend of PTA futures was relatively clear.

But for the time being, PTA price is at a historical low, and the PTA market is affected by the fluctuation of crude oil price. The trend is not so obvious, and the uncertainty is bigger.

In addition, the current PTA1505 contract warehouse receipts amounted to 90765, compared to the 1401 contract warehouse volume of 90755 more than 10, at present 1505 months from the contract delivery for 1 months.

In Wang Guangqian's view, the continued increase in warehouse receipts in the late delivery warehouse is a big probability event, which is a great test for the storage capacity of PTA futures delivery repository.