There Are Two Major Changes In The Trend This Week.

With the closing of Friday's market this week, from the weekly performance, the Shanghai Composite Index has been sorted out and its momentum has slowed down after the 3715 point high. The gem index is also experiencing a rapid adjustment after a record high. After experiencing a continuous rise, the index is also very normal. The trend of future market can not be generalized, structural differentiation will appear.

Judging from this week's surface, market Two major changes have occurred. First of all, the leading stocks that have taken the lead have plunged sharply, such as the Boteng group, the all through education and so on. The fall in early stock market shows that the characteristics of the previous market will change. Secondly, there are changes in the main stock market hot spots. A few days later this week, the rise of infrastructure, machinery and other industrial sectors was gaining momentum, which concealed the signal that the market is brewing new hot spots.

We believe that, after a continuous rise, the motherboard, Gem After the new high (new stage), there is indeed a demand for shocks and recuperation, and there is a great possibility of adjustment. But on the other hand, based on the current Market funds Abundant, off site funds are also constantly entering, and the policy level is also actively singing many stock markets, so the medium term trend of stock index is still optimistic. Even if the short-term adjustment is limited, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of bargain absorption. However, it should be noted that at the end of March, the peak of annual report is the peak of the annual report. It is necessary to avoid the bubble risk of some false growth stocks with high valuations and declining performance.

Therefore, investors still need to find opportunities to invest in stocks that are relatively backward, with relatively reasonable valuation and better performance. In specific directions, we should pay attention to such topics as reform of state-owned assets, financial reform (free trade zone and Internet Banking) and other hot topics such as industry 4 and "one road, one area".

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A shares can be tens of thousands of points? From the long-term development, this is no doubt. But when it comes to looking at A shares, the market is full of doubts. I believe that those who throw out the "ten thousand point theory" are also full of doubts about whether the stock index can be more than ten thousand points. Here, let me assume that A shares can stand at ten thousand points, but the question I want to ask is: what happens after the stock market stands at ten thousand points?

If the stock index stands at ten thousand points, can the index continue to rise? If the index station drops after ten thousand points, will it be a chicken feather for the stock market?

First, the daily turnover of the stock market will reach about 3 trillion yuan. How much social capital will be attracted by such a huge deal, or even the real economy? Will the stock market not cause economic development?

Two, the price earnings ratio of stocks will also be high. The average price earnings ratio of gem will be more than 300 times, and the price earnings ratio of the motherboard will also be about 80 times. The whole Chinese stock market is a huge bubble.

Three, the size will not accelerate cash flow. In the face of hundreds of times of price earnings ratio, the size of the non cash will be cash in cash, and it will become cash in the stock market. Faced with this kind of opportunity to cash in, it can only be a fool to hold stocks in hand.

Four, IPO and refinancing will go crazy. In the face of such an opportunity to index tens of thousands of points, not only will IPO speed up further, but the refinancing of listed companies will also be crazy, and the price of IPO and refinancing will also rise, and the price earnings ratio of 100 times is no longer a high price issue.

Five, the balance of securities financing should also be 3 trillion.

In this case, the stock market has fallen, and the tragedy of this bubble burst, has anyone ever thought of this tragedy of killing many more? Such a tragic plot is obviously not comparable to that of the big bear market in 2008. This will be a disaster for Chinese society and will not exclude the arrival of a financial crisis.

Therefore, the stock market stands at ten thousand points obviously not now. The current stock market does not have the conditions of the stock market standing at ten thousand points, nor does it prepare the stock index station for tens of thousands of points. When will the stock index stand at ten thousand points? That should be after the five preconditions set up by Liu Shuwei. For now, the Shanghai Stock Index station is still a dream.