Global Central Banks Are Intervening In Exchange Rates

RMB can not withstand the risk of being cold at high altitude. China's economy is in pition stage, which is equivalent to another molting, relatively weak.

Considering that the Chinese government holds more than US $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and a large number of assets such as European and American bonds, it is unthinkable that the sharp fall in the renminbi and the domestic debt crisis are unthinkable unless there is an irreversible black swan event in China.

The fall of the renminbi is the result of laissez faire.

Since March, the nominal exchange rate of RMB and the rise of real exchange rate are equally ungratifying.

The dollar is shaking.

The US dollar fell sharply against the euro in the first two years, and the US dollar rose sharply in March last year. By the middle of March this year, the euro fell by 16% in the past six months, and the yen fell by 14%.

Then the US dollar raised interest rates far away, and the bulk of durable consumer goods and other data were poor, and the dollar began to call back.

Maintaining the RMB exchange rate is not a problem at all.

In addition to the US dollar, the rise of the renminbi in other currencies has led to an increase in the real exchange rate.

According to the BIS, last year's nominal exchange rate appreciated by 6.41% and the real effective exchange rate appreciated by 6.24%.

Since the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in 2005 to the end of last year, the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB has appreciated by 40.51%, and the real effective exchange rate has appreciated by 51.04%.

BIS

The index is based on the weight of the 2008-2010 year trade data, based on 2010. In the weight of the RMB index, the euro, the US dollar and the yen rank the top three.

No, the renminbi is rising against the euro and yen, and the trade surplus is still visible.

After the Yuan's decline, China's big banks bought renminbi, and the trend of maintaining stability is obvious.

At the end of 3, the central parity of RMB should rise to the highest level in a month.

The dollar has fallen, and the renminbi has bounced steadily.

The RMB spot exchange rate rose by 700 basis points or 1.12% in March, which completely recovered the 0.76% and 0.30% decline in the first two months.

In the first quarter of the year, against the background of the US dollar index advancing vigorously, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar still rose by 44 basis points or 0.07%.

Newest

Trend of continuous oscillation market.

After a series of 3 trading days, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar remained stable basically in April 2nd.

The rally ended 4 consecutive trading days.

In the overseas non deliverable forward foreign exchange (NDF) market, the US dollar / Renminbi one year variety is newly reported at 6.3190/6.3240, ending 6.3245 in April 1st.

The latest offshore dollar / RMB spot report in Hongkong was 6.2035/6.2041, and the last trading day was 6.2036.

After four consecutive rises, they stopped and the fluctuation amplitude narrowed correspondingly.

In April 8th, the Fed's Hawk conference records revealed that the US dollar surged.

With the recent introduction of the intensive real estate rescue policy to boost the economy and Asian investment bank has attracted many fans, the RMB's short-term devaluation is expected to be smaller.

As the Chinese government speeds up the marketization of interest rates and the nationalization of RMB payment, the market is more willing to believe that the RMB will continue to oscillate in a short time. In general, the possibility of unilateral appreciation or depreciation is almost zero.

From the long-term trend, because of the pressure of US dollar interest rate increase, the RMB against the US dollar can not rise like the previous two years.

Obviously, whether the Fed raises interest rates or not will have an impact on the trend of the latter part of the RMB, which will be reflected in the sharp shocks triggered by the short-term rise in the US dollar, but will not become the last straw to crush the RMB exchange rate.

The key factor affecting the renminbi is domestic economic data.

Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the renminbi has remained untouched by the US dollar in order to avoid the volatility of the RMB exchange rate. Now, with the dollar going to dust, the renminbi must refer more to other currencies, so as not to be on the high side with the US dollar.

The US economy has improved, and the rise in the US dollar has little to do with it. The US Treasury Secretary, Jacob Lu, stressed at the annual meeting of the world economic forum in Davos, Switzerland: "I will repeat what I have said and all my predecessors have said, that is, a strong dollar is good for the United States, and our economy is much stronger than other economies in the world."