Understanding The Current Development Of Cotton Market

Cotton prices are likely to rise in the near future, especially if cotton prices are likely to rise sooner or more in the near future.

1, recent domestic

Supply and demand are becoming more and more intense.

The most important thing is the shortage of quality cotton. Xinjiang's high quality hand picked cotton basically has no commercial stocks. So what is the outer cotton? The author contacts several large traders in Zhangjiagang and Qingdao port. According to them, if the bonded area has been increased to more than 250 thousand tons, the warehouse will be "stormed" on the other hand, but it will be "starving" for the spinning enterprises. Why is it that there is no quota?

These days, there are some

The purchasing manager asked the author if it was possible to pick up some 2128 or more hands.

Or the US cotton and Australia cotton that have already been cleared, in the face of such a requirement, the author can only be silent.

2, the days of spinning enterprises are getting better.

In many exchanges between the author and the cotton textile industry, most of the textile companies have been making profits this year. Especially, the profit level of 21 or more yarn is above 1000 yuan / ton, and some combed high count yarn even reaches 2000-3000 yuan / ton.

Everyone is making a big noise.

A Binzhou textile enterprise manager said that their factories mainly produced more than 40 Combed Yarns, and their products were mainly exported to countries such as Africa and Central Asia. They were relatively popular, especially in late April.

3, demand is gradually improving.

The market believes that under the impetus of the "one belt and one way" policy, there is still growth expectation for downstream cotton exports.

In addition, from past years, 5 and June are still the peak season for cotton yarn and cotton cloth demand, and at present, the inventory of finished products or raw materials is still at a low level, which provides an interval for the latter market to rise.

Related links:

What will be the effect of dumping? These days, more and more information about dumping and storage is heard, and we hear more and more confusion.

Dumping and storage are highly policy oriented and uncertain. Any speculation without sources is undesirable, especially when to throw, throw and price.

Therefore, the author thinks that some problems about throwing and storing can be considered more often.

It needs to be emphasized that many industries worry that throwing reserves will break the current cotton supply and demand pattern, which I think is certain.

But this can not be equated with changes in supply and demand, and prices will fall.

Just imagine, if the national cotton price is set at 15000 yuan / ton, do you think the current price is "hit down" or "pull up"? Therefore, sometimes we worry too much about some vague things.

With the coming of mid May, the discussion on the trend of cotton has increased again, especially in recent years, and speculation about the dumping and storage has brought some uncertainties to the stable cotton prices.

Up to now, how much is the resources of Xinjiang cotton? According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, the total output of cotton in the whole country is about 6 million 510 thousand tons this year. Judging from the number of lint processed, publicly checked and warehousing, the total output of cotton in Xinjiang in 2014/15 is not less than 4 million 400 thousand tons.

As of mid May, the sales of cotton in Xinjiang had been completed by about 65%, that is to say, the commercial inventory of Xinjiang cotton was less than 440 * 0.35=154 million tons.

What's more, we need to pay attention to that the sale of hand picked cotton in Xinjiang this year is very fast. At present, it is difficult to find it in the market. Most of the rest are hand picked cotton and medium and low quality hand picked cotton.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, in 2015, the cotton planting area in China was 51 million 187 thousand mu, down 20.1% from the same period last year.

Judging from this data, it is closer to our estimate and is recognized by the market.

That is to say, about 30% of the national cotton reduction in 2015 is a big probability event.

Therefore, it is estimated that cotton output will reach 651 x 0.7=455.7 million tons in 2015.