Sun Ruizhe: Optimization And Upgrading Of Textile And Apparel Supply Chain Under The New Normal

With China's economic development entering a new normal period, we have made anticipation for the next development of the industry.

The first prediction is about the export structure of textiles and clothing.

It can be seen that by twenty-first Century, the export growth rate of textiles has maintained a relatively good state. Although garment exports are larger than textile exports, textile exports can continue to grow.

It can be predicted that in the next 5 years, the export growth or export quota of textiles will probably reach the current level of clothing exports.

The second prediction is the growth of fiber processing capacity in China.

In the future, we expect that the growth rate of fiber processing will still be higher than that of the world, and will grow at a speed of close to 5%.

Last year, the total fiber processing reached 50 million tons, accounting for 56%~58% share in the world.

Under the new normal, the development of the industry is faced with various pressures. One of the bigger points is that the industrial added value of the textile industry is lower than that of GDP. Especially last year, the industrial added value and the industrial added value of the first quarter of this year are all lower than the growth of GDP. That is the pressure.

There are several aspects that need to be focused on in the development of the industry.

everything

Adjustment.

There are two key points in the structural adjustment of the industry: the growth of chemical fiber and industrial textiles.

Last year, 50 million tons of fiber processing volume, chemical fiber accounted for 82%, and the proportion of industrial textiles in the industry will further enhance.

The two is the domestic market.

According to the current statistics, consumption in the three or four tier cities and the vast rural market will also maintain a very rapid growth in the case of slowing consumption in the first tier cities.

The three is online consumption.

Online and offline consumption has become a new normal for consumption. China has become the world's largest online sales market since 2012, and the online sales market will grow further.

However, it should be noted that before 2020, offline sales will still dominate, especially in the form of textile and clothing sales experience, which will not be completely replaced by online sales, and will still dominate the offline industry.

Four is

Problem.

At present, the European Union, the United States, Japan and ASEAN are China.

The four largest target market for product exports has accounted for 56% of the total exports of the industry.

However, there is also a problem. Textile exports in the first four months of this year have a negative growth compared with the same period last year. Whether this year's export can reach 5% of the preset goal, it will face enormous pressure.

The five is factor cost advantage.

First of all, from the cost of energy, with the success of shale gas revolution, the cost of industrial electricity in the US is far lower than that in China.

The "going out" of Chinese enterprises is not only seeking the low cost of production factors, but also a very important reason is the low wage cost. China is now one of the countries with relatively high capital use cost. Although several benchmark lending rates have been lowered, the cost is still far higher than that in Europe and the United States and other countries and regions, especially in terms of wage costs and electricity costs.

For example, the comprehensive cost of China's Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and other regions, compared with some parts of the United States, there is no advantage.

So now domestic enterprises are investing in the US.

It can be seen that the comprehensive cost of coastal areas in China has no advantage.

On the other hand, it is about the problem of labor employment. With the development of the industry in the middle and high end, the demand for technology in textile industry is getting higher and higher.

Now the shortage of labor force, especially the shortage of skilled workers, has affected the development of the industry to a certain extent.