PTA Supply And Demand Improvement Will Be Limited Or Limited

It is understood that after the smooth delivery of the contract in May, some warehouse receipts began to flow to the spot market.

On the one hand, after the contract was completed in May, the warehouse receipts were converted to spot to meet downstream production demand; on the other hand, due to tight supply and demand, the price was relatively strong, the futures premium was narrowed, and its willingness to continue to hold warehouse receipts was weakened, and some of the warehouse receipts began to turn into spot sales.

"Before the Xiang Lu did not drive, the warehouse receipts would be gradually realized."

Meng Xianli, manager of the purchasing department of Limited by Share Ltd special chemical fiber factory in Jiangsu, Huaxi Village, said that it is difficult to meet the downstream production needs in view of the current PTA start-up situation.

But after June, market conditions may change.

According to Bian Zhiwei, Jiangsu's three Lane Lane International Trade Co., Ltd., the current price difference has narrowed from 150 yuan to 180 yuan per ton in the period of 200 yuan / ton at the highest level in 4 and May. With the restart of some PTA devices in the late stage, the market confidence will weaken gradually, and the price will be suppressed, and the rate of 1509 increase or decrease will be limited or limited.

In the survey, the reporter learned that the inventory of PTA manufacturers is generally low, and the supply of short-term market is still tight.

Taking Hengli petrochemical as an example, its dynamic inventory is even negative. The parking overhaul plan of the enterprise from 5 to June has been cancelled, and the annual load of the plant is planned to be full and full.

"After June, with the early maintenance of Yangzi, Jialong, MITSUBISHI and other maintenance devices to restart, at the same time, Sichuan Shengda 1 million tons of new capacity is facing the pressure of release, and the market expects that the PTA device of the Xiang Lu petrochemical company has also been restarted, so the overall load of PTA tends to increase.

Polyester consumption tends to decline as downstream polyester consumption falls into the off-season in June.

At that time, PTA dynamic supply and demand will shift from the current tight balance to easing.

Zhang De said that under the scenario that most of the good profits such as crude oil price rebounded have been fulfilled, PTA futures is expected to weaken gradually.

according to

The warehouse receipt management method, which is registered in the twelfth trading day (excluding the day) in September, is cancelled on the fifteenth trading day of the fifteenth month.

Therefore, unlike in May, the late September contract will face the pressure of cancellation of the warehouse receipt, which means that after the September contract is received, it will not be able to continue to leave for a long time.

The situation is gradually narrowing.

However, some market participants suggested that the pattern of spot price premium for spot lifting is difficult to change.

In Shenyang Wanguo futures analyst Gong Qingbin, at present,

The marginal negative impact of overcapacity is gradually weakening. For forward contracts, the rising cost of international oil price rebound will become an important reason for maintaining its high price.

In addition, the demand for textiles has maintained a certain growth rate in the terminal market, and the profit situation of downstream enterprises has improved compared with previous years.

"The expectation of long-term cost and demand will have greater support for futures prices."

Gong Qingbin said that spot prices were subject to weak seasonal demand, seasonal weakness and stock pressure.

He believes that futures prices will continue to rise to spot prices.

However, taking into account the PTA overcapacity background, the 1509 contract will not be too large for the spot lift, and the arbitrage opportunities are limited.