Capital Market Will Enter The Financial Era

The allocation of residents is from the deposit era, the real estate era to the financial age.

Reviewing the history of the wealth growth of Chinese residents, the growth of wealth in 8 and 90s mainly came from bank deposits, and after 2000, financial management of residents entered the real estate era.

But from the 14 year, financial assets have become the main source of residents' wealth increment for the first time, which means we may be entering a new era -- the financial age.

The demand for financial assets for residents' wealth allocation is rising sharply.

First, from the perspective of body mass, Chinese residents are compared.

There is a huge room for improvement in the allocation ratio.

Second, the potential returns of both the stock market and the bond market are far greater than those of real estate and deposits. Financial assets are still the preferred allocation for future residents.

Why does the stock debt double cow start from 14 years? The reason is mainly attributed to the two changes.

The first is the long-term change, and the turning point of China's population structure has appeared in the past 11 years.

This means that there is a historical turning point in the real estate market, and at the same time, there is a downward trend in interest rates.

This means that the real estate and deposits of Chinese residents in the past two major asset allocation entities will gradually fade away, and the only choice in the future will be financial assets, because their prices will benefit from the downward trend of interest rates.

The second is short-term change, and the 14 year monetary policy has seen a great turning point.

13 years of money shortage led to bear debt double debt, high interest rate deleveraging invalid.

There are only three ways to reduce the debt rate: one is to lower interest rates, two is to increase interest, and three is debt reduction.

In 14 years, the central bank turned to low interest rates to leverage, and the bond market took the lead in turning cattle. In July, the money market cut interest rates and the stock market changed from bear to cattle. In November, the central bank formally cut interest rates.

Speed up.

We judge that the cycle of interest rate cuts is far from over.

In the second half of 15 years, the central bank's loose monetary policy has two main risk points.

First, the Fed will start raising interest rates in September, and there will be outflow pressure on the funds. However, due to the high reserve requirement rate, sustainable capital reduction will hedge the outflow of funds.

Two, the market is worried about the second half of the economy and inflation rebound.

We judge that the short period of economic rebound first appeared after the 4 quarter, which meant that there was no need to worry about easing monetary policy.

Growth momentum: from demographic dividend to reform and innovation.

The main driving force of China's past growth came from adequate labor, but the end of the demographic dividend means that industrialization has come to an end. The total negative growth of industrial products in April is also the inevitable result.

There are three main hopes for new growth momentum in the future: human capital, innovation and reform.

Capital markets reduce costs and boost pformation.

In the era of demographic dividend, capital is scarce and capital returns are high. High cost banks become the main means of financing and the key to industrialization.

After the aging of the population, capital tends to be surplus, capital return rate is decreasing, and the cost of direct financing is the lowest, so it becomes the best way of financing.

The core difference between Japan and the United States is that the former relies on banks and the latter on capital markets.

Big waves rush for gold and the future is wonderful.

In the future, with the trend of wealth pfer of Chinese residents, the financing system will shift from bank to bank.

The economic structure will shift from industry to service industry, and the demand for services such as travel, education, medical treatment and entertainment will continue to increase.

With the implementation of registration system and the break of bonds, the good money will expel bad money in the future and big waves rush for gold.

We will welcome different future, but equally wonderful!