PTA Production Costs Are Expected To Decline, Consumption Continues To Weaken

In the near future, the systemic risk caused by the Greek debt problem spread to the commodity market. On Tuesday night, the commodity market plummeted and several commodities were down.

The biggest problem in the upstream industry is the uncertainty in the volume of crude oil exports.

In order to expand the market share before the recovery of crude oil exports in Iran, OPEC members have greatly increased their production recently.

After July 7th, the Iran nuclear talks again "increased".

Greece's debt problem is also in the "solution".

The oil market will continue to bear the pressure of uncertainty in the outcome of the negotiations.

However, no matter whether the outcome of the negotiations is reached or not, I am afraid that crude oil will not be able to find substantial support from it.

Conversely, if Greece retire from Europe and Europe and the United States lift sanctions against Iran, crude oil prices will face a sharp drop.

In addition, the pressure of crude oil supply is still very large, and US crude oil inventories have climbed again, ending the eight consecutive week of decline.

Despite the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories last week and the fact that the increase in imports is due to greater chance, the oversupply of the global crude oil market is still continuing, and this bad tone will be maintained over the longer term.

On the other hand,

The performance of the economic data is good, showing that the overall economic situation is still improving, while the expansion of manufacturing industry and the simultaneous consumption growth have pushed the US dollar index higher.

The hawks in the Fed are getting louder and louder. Recently, a number of Fed officials have expressed their willingness to raise interest rates as soon as possible.

In addition, after the Greek debt crisis lasted for three years, especially after the fact of default in Greece, the market's risk aversion increased dramatically.

Entering the US dollar market has adverse effects on commodity prices.

From the perspective of downstream industries of PTA, polyester load has been declining.

Yisheng Dalian PTA plant began to reduce production by 20% in early July because of its production efficiency, which affected PTA production capacity of 1 million 200 thousand tons.

The load dropped by 2.55%; the Hon Bang Petrochemical 600 thousand ton PTA plant briefly stopped in June 29th due to weather reasons. It resumed on the same day. Hengli petrochemical PTA plant was scheduled to stop and repair due to poor production efficiency. All the customers were informed of the contract customers, the contract reduced by 10%, and its production capacity decreased by about 20%, and the PTA load decreased by 0.28%.

PTA production cost is expected to decline, but consumption continues to weaken, PTA surplus situation continues.

In addition, Ningbo CICC and Xiang Lu petrochemical installations are scheduled to start in July, and the PTA delivery repository will slow down in inventory.

The author believes that the PTA futures 1509 contract will remain weak, and the crude oil price in the upstream market will probably encounter pressure levels near the 60 yuan / barrel this year, and there is no room for further rebound. Its weakness will also continue to suppress the PTA price trend.