PTA Price Low Oscillation Cost End Empty

Despite the frequent problems of PTA installations, the price of PTA has increased, but the failure of individual devices has only led to a temporary rebound of PTA and can not drive market reversals. As PTA enterprises are actively competing for the market, the long term parking devices have resumed and filled the market vacancy.

The peak period of production in polyester industry will be in 2012, and the capacity growth rate will decrease after 2013 and 2014. By the end of 2014, the total capacity of China's pet will reach 45 million 750 thousand tons. It is estimated that China's polyester production capacity will increase by 3 million 800 thousand tons in 2015, up 8.3% over the same period last year, and China's polyester production capacity will account for more than 60% of the polyester production capacity in Asia.

The growth rate of PTA will increase compared with the growth rate of polyester.

From the analysis of PTA's industrial chain, we can see that because of the overcapacity of PTA, the PTA factory's profit is very thin, and it often loses money. The price increase of PTA is a driving force of cost.

Therefore, the rise and fall of the cost side will have a great impact on the price change of PTA.

The fall of crude oil in the second half of 2014 will drag down the price of PTA. The author believes that crude oil will remain at the bottom. The weakness of the cost side will decide that PTA will not be able to go up sharply.

In 2014, the new PX capacity in Asia reached 6 million 970 thousand tons / year, and the total capacity of PX has reached 41 million 460 thousand tons / year, of which China's PX production capacity is 1221.5 million tons / year.

In 2015, the new capacity of PX in the Asian region was put into operation at 4 million 500 thousand tons / year, of which the 1 million 600 thousand ton / year PX device of Sinopec Petrochemical Company will be formally put into operation in the second half year.

In contrast to the new capacity of PTA in Asia, the growth rate of PX capacity will still be faster than that of PTA, and the overcapacity of PX in Asia will continue.

As of June 30th, the PTA main contract paction price in the 4480-5634 ton / yuan interval operation, the overall can be divided into two stages.

In the second half of 2014, international crude oil prices experienced a dramatic decline. At the beginning of 2015, international crude oil prices continued to decline in 2014, upstream naphtha,

The price continued to go down, and the 1 PTA futures price accelerated down, and the TA1505 of the main contract fell to 4480 yuan / ton, breaking the lowest point of 4482 yuan / ton in November 2008, creating the lowest price since PTA listed.

In February, the international crude oil prices recovered and fell for the first time in 7 months. The monthly crude oil price, especially the aromatics price, was the biggest monthly increase since February. The rebound in crude oil prices drove naphtha and PX to increase rapidly, and PTA cost support strengthened. PTA also welcomed the first monthly rise in 8 months in February.

In March, the international crude oil prices were suppressed first and then lifted. The US WTI crude oil hit the bottom two times, and the lowest level was 42.03 US dollars / ton, reaching a new low of six years. The cost support weakened and led to the decline of PTA's gravity center.

On the whole, international crude oil prices bottomed out in the first quarter of 2015, and PTA core futures prices remained low.

April 6th

Zhangzhou Tenglong aromatics PX plant exploded, its PX plant capacity up to 1 million 600 thousand tons, at the same time led to the Xiang Lu Petrochemical 4 million 500 thousand ton PTA device shutdown, the accident makes PTA supply tight, PTA rapid rebound from the bottom.

In April 21st, the ethylene plant of Yangzi Petrochemical Plant exploded, and its 650 thousand ton PTA plant was also affected by the shutdown, pushing up the PTA futures price again.

The shutdown of the PTA device has led to a rapid decline in the operating rate of the PTA plant.

The pattern of supply and demand has changed, and PTA has entered the stage of de stocking.

At the same time, the 2 quarter Asian PX device centralized maintenance, PX PX supply tight, driving PX price is strong, and the strengthening of the cost support of the PTA also drive the price of PTA futures to rise.

By May 7th, the main contract TA1509 rebounded to 5634 yuan / ton, rebounding 21.6% in one month.

But as the price of PTA rebounded, factory profits began to recover. In May, Tianjin petrochemical, Jialong petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical's PTA devices were restarted, and the load of PTA device increased rapidly.

At the same time, Asian PX maintenance devices have been restarted, pressing up PX prices, and supporting PTA costs.

Downstream, polyester is in the off-season, polyester factory load is gradually decreasing, downstream PTA demand reduction.

The petrochemical accident's positive stimulus dissipated, and the basic weakness led to the PTA futures price falling.