Downstream Textile Demand Is Still Sluggish.

The global cotton market is in a state of oversupply, and the possibility of a sharp rebound in cotton prices is very low.

Under the pressure of high domestic cotton stocks and insufficient demand for downstream textile and clothing, cotton prices will not get rid of the weak trend in the future.

1601, the contract will maintain a low position, with insufficient driving power and falling expectations.

In the first half of this year, China

Exports have been rising and falling for the first time in nearly 5 years.

In dollar terms, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in the first half of this year was 128 billion 380 million US dollars, down 3.10%.

Among them, textile exports amounted to 52 billion 912 million US dollars, down 0.70%, and clothing exports 75 billion 468 million US dollars, down 4.70%.

domestic

The reduction of orders, the increase of finished goods inventories, and the difficulty of sales repayment exacerbated the pressure of operating capital of enterprises.

Against this background, the start-up rate of textile enterprises has declined, and its enthusiasm for purchasing cotton and cotton yarns has shrunk, thereby affecting the overall demand of cotton market.

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Last week (7.27-7.31), the textile market showed overall: oil prices continued to fall; the State Cotton store had a light turnover; the economic surface did not improve significantly; textile and garment exports continued to decline, the amplitude narrowed; imports rebounded slightly, cotton yarn imports increased significantly; cotton imports continued to decline and cotton cotton was favored; the three raw materials continued to be stable, sticky, and weak.

International oil prices fell 11.2% in the first half of the month.

Since the signing of the Iranian nuclear agreement in July 15th, Iran will return to the oil market, which will have a great impact on the international oil market with unbalanced production and demand, and international crude oil futures will continue to fall.

According to statistics, New York crude oil futures fell from 53.04 US dollars / barrel to 47.12 US dollars / barrel in July 31st, and 11.2% in the half month, which fell 2.12% this week.

Continuous decline in crude oil may continue to keep polyester fibers under pressure.

Two, the turnover of cotton production decreased by 66.2% compared with last week, and the Xinjiang regiment cotton competition was slightly better than the cotton production.

This week, the turnover of cotton reached 3900.88 tons, down 66.2% from last week, accounting for only 1.5% of the turnover.

Among them, 3267.91 tons of domestic cotton and 2012 tons of imported cotton in 2012.

At the same time, Xinjiang corps cotton turnover of 3330.07 tons, down 26.5% compared with last week, a decrease of less than the output of cotton, accounting for 3.33% of the volume.

It is understood that the corps cotton turnover is better than the main reason for the emergence of cotton, one is relatively good quality; the two is the service commitment.

In July 14th, the Xinjiang Corps issued a notice on the provision of funds and distribution services to dealers in the national cotton market through the national cotton market (2015, commodity cotton exchange No. twelfth). In order to ease the tight funds and pportation difficulties of buyers when purchasing, the exchange market provides fast and safe capital services to the buyers dealers and low cost and efficient highway pportation services.

Three, textile and garment exports continued to decline in June, imports rebounded and cotton yarn imports increased significantly.

According to customs statistics, China's textile and apparel exports in June amounted to 25 billion 350 million US dollars, down 1.16% compared to the same period last year, and the decline was narrowed.

Among them, clothing decreased by 3.1%, and textile increased by 2.25%.

In June, imports and exports of textiles and clothing increased by 2 billion 210 million, up 0.78% from the same period last year, except for the first time in February, with 5.87% growth in clothing and 0.71% in textiles.

From the export market, in June, the EU continued to decline, exports of US $5 billion 583 million, down by 8.3%; exports to Japan declined in depth, exports were US $1 billion 396 million, the decline was 13.67%; exports to ASEAN declined and exports increased by US $2 billion 872 million, a slight increase of 4.11%; exports to Hongkong decreased by US $1 billion 139 million, down by 27.51%; exports to the United States increased, exports 4 billion 709 million US dollars, an increase of 16.58%.

From the perspective of export products, there are three main characteristics. First, the export volume of fabrics is getting warmer, and the export of yarn and clothing continues to decline.

In June, the export volume of yarn decreased by 2.44% compared with the same period last year, while clothing decreased by 5.54%, and the fabric grew by 7.67% compared with the same period last year. It has been growing for 2 consecutive months.

Two, the export volume of textile products increased slightly, and prices continued to fall slightly.

It is estimated that textile exports in June increased by 2.25% over the same period, the number increased by 2.57%, and the price dropped by 0.32%.

Three, the export of cotton products decreased, and the exports of chemical fiber products continued to increase slightly.

For example, in June, the export of cotton yarn decreased by 15.16% compared with that of the previous year, and cotton cloth decreased by 0.13% and cotton clothing decreased by 11.99%.

And chemical fiber fabrics grew by 7.14% compared to the same period, chemical fiber clothing increased by 0.05%, and chemical fiber yarn decreased by 2.05%.

Cotton yarn imports increased significantly in June.

Imports of India, Pakistan and Vietnam yarn are the top.

In June, 193 thousand and 600 tons of imported cotton yarn, an increase of 37.64% over the same period, showed a continuous surge.

Imported from India, 48 thousand tons, increased by 46.98%, 47 thousand and 400 tons from Vietnam, an increase of 56.93%, and 40 thousand and 700 tons from Pakistan, up 20.98%.

According to statistics from Vietnam and Pakistan related departments, Vietnam exported 83 thousand tons of cotton yarn in June, an increase of 14.32%, and Pakistan exported 50 thousand and 300 tons, an increase of 11.7%.

However, according to port traders, the quality of imported yarn has generally slowed down recently, and the quality problem is more prominent, which requires importers and textile companies to pay attention.

Four, cotton imports continue to decline, Australia cotton favored.

According to customs statistics, China imported 161 thousand and 300 tons of cotton in June, down 26.1% from the same period last year, a drop in twenty-ninth months since 2013.

That month imports 84 thousand tons of cotton, 52%, 35 thousand and 200 tons of imported cotton, 21.8%, and imports of cotton in September the highest monthly level since last month.

The main reason for the high price of Australian cotton is due to the high quality of Australian cotton, good fiber length and high consistency of cotton linen in 2015. Cotton spinning 40 and 50s high count combed yarn are more attractive to Chinese textile enterprises.

It is understood that in May, Australia signed 49 thousand tons of lint cotton, and China signed 36 thousand and 800 tons, accounting for more than 7.