Analysis Of The Development Trend Of New Cotton Market

The rainfall in Shandong and Hebei cotton fields of the Yellow River river basin is much more, and the drought has been effectively alleviated. But there are more rain in some areas, and cotton is harmful to peach sitting.

High temperature weather brings drought and insect pests, and affects cotton output. Especially long staple cotton, yield per unit area may be lower than that of last year. Cotton is in the critical period of Bolling, and management should be strengthened.

This week continued the previous four weeks.

Low, low and low down, showing a weak fall, prices close to the shock interval low, market risk has not yet been fully released, the potential is still expected to continue downward, the short line supporting 63 cents, 60 cents near.

This week's fluctuation range was 12600-12810 yuan, still showing a narrow adjustment.

Failure to continue the rally last week, the downward trend of the price in the adjustment of the weak side market, the market situation is empty, the upward resistance is large, the latter is not optimistic, short-term bias adjustment, still continue to explore the trend, the middle line support near 12000.

It is estimated that there will be new listing of new cotton in mid and late 8 months in some areas of Xinjiang and the Yellow River. In view of the large losses caused by hoarding cotton last year and the loss of a large number of cotton enterprises and the current market structure, the price that cotton enterprises can bear at the time of takeover is not high.

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　　ICE棉花期價收陰下跌，這是連續第五周表現為陰跌，價格跌至區間調整低位63美分附近，本周主要利空點：一是宏觀面影響負面，外圍市場利空，美聯儲加息預期升溫，美元走強，中國股市周一大幅下跌8.5%，創近八年半最大單日跌幅，再現千股跌停，這也顯示了中國經濟成長放緩慢，道瓊工業、標準普爾等歐美股指以及日經都出現較大幅的下跌，大宗商品普遍遭遇拋售，棉價也跟隨回落;二是棉花供應過剩，這是壓制棉價下跌的根本原因，數據顯示，2014/15和2015/16全球棉花年末庫存分別為1.1096億包和1.0814億包，庫存量有增無減，中國庫存增加較大，目前全球最大的棉花需求國中國儲備棉庫存在1000萬噸以上，自7月開始的國儲棉輪出成交緩慢，顯示其去庫存所需時間仍需要相當長的時間，對棉花的進口需求在未來年度難有增長，東南亞國家需求雖有所增長，但在中

In the case of a decrease in demand, there was also no bright spot. Three, the weekly sales data released by the US Department of agriculture showed that in the week of July 23rd, cotton exports in the US 2014/15 were sold by 23300 packages, and the main importing countries were Vietnam and Indonesia, 75% lower than the previous week, 63% lower than the previous four weeks. 7 countries have cancelled some contracts and exported 168500 packages, mainly shipped to Vietnam, Turkey and Indonesia, a decrease of 3% over the previous week, a decrease of 10% compared with the previous four weeks, three of the excellent cotton longevity in the United States and an increase in cotton cultivation in India.

The weekly growth report of the US Department of agriculture showed that in the week July 26th, the growth rate of cotton in the United States was 57%, compared with 57% in the previous week, 54% in the same period last year, and 85% in the previous week, 76% in the previous week, 87% in the same period last year, 88% in the five year, 44% in the previous year, 33% in the previous week, 47% in the same period last year, and the average in the 47% year. The growth rate of American cotton is better than that of the same period last year, and the indicators are gradually improving. If the weather is not abnormal, the yield per unit area is expected to increase.

The sowing area of India has increased significantly. According to the Ministry of agriculture of India, by July 23rd, the new sown area of India increased by 995.2 hectares (149 million mu), which was 31% higher than that of 761.33 hectares (114 million mu) in the same period last year. The India Cotton Association said that by October, the cotton stocks in India increased 25% to 7 million 390 thousand packages (170 kg per pack) than the 5 million 890 thousand packages in the same period last year, and the output will probably be close to a record 40 million pack next year.

Poor macro face, high inventory carrying stock and excellent growth of new cotton continue to suppress cotton prices.