Lou Jiwei: China'S Economy Will Maintain A 7% Growth Rate

The official website of the people's Bank of China announced on 5 March that Chinese finance minister Lou Jiwei said at the meeting of the finance ministers and central bank governors of the group of twenty (G20) that the current economic situation in China is still within expectations.

China's economy has entered a new normal, and its growth rate is expected to remain at around 7%, and this state may last for 4 to 5 years.

Lou Jiwei said that the current economic situation in China is still within expectations.

China's economy has entered a new normal, and its growth rate is expected to remain at around 7%, and this state may last for 4 to 5 years.

First, China has relied on policy stimulus to grow 9% to 10%.

But this is not sustainable, and it is also beyond the potential growth rate of China's economy, resulting in overcapacity and a large increase in inventory. It is necessary to gradually digest production capacity and inventory, which may take years.

At the same time, the next 5 years will be a painful period for China's economic restructuring, and the main task of structural reform is to be completed by 2020.

Lou Jiwei emphasized that

The government will not pay special attention to quarterly short-term economic fluctuations, and will maintain the "fixed force" of macroeconomic policies.

The greatest potential of China's economy lies in reform.

The demographic dividend has disappeared.

In the context of the decline, the Chinese government has been pushing forward structural reform and continuously improving total factor productivity, so as to reform the dividend and hedge the disappearance of the demographic dividend, so that economic growth will remain at around 7%.

In short, China is unswervingly pushing ahead with reform and opening up in accordance with established arrangements.

In this process, China's economy will be mainly dependent on investment.

It will be a difficult adjustment process to pull the shift more dependent on consumption.

Second, China's economic cycle is different from that of developed countries.

After the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the developed countries generally started the deleveraging process, but China began rapid leverage from 2009 to 2010, and achieved economic growth of about 10%, contributing to the global economic growth rate of over 50%.

At present, China has entered the stage of deleveraging, and its economic growth has dropped to around 7%.

But even so, the contribution rate of China's economy to global economic growth is still around 30%.

Lou Jiwei said that despite the slowdown in the economy, there has been some encouraging change in China's economy.

The contribution rate of consumption to economic growth exceeds investment, and the proportion of service industry to GDP exceeds that of industry. The proportion of trade surplus in GDP has declined, and the balance of payments has been more balanced. In the first half of this year, new employment has been more than 7 million, the quality of economic growth has been continuously improved, and the ecological environment has gradually improved.

China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy.

It is estimated that the annual growth rate of central fiscal expenditure will be around 10%, which is higher than the growth rate of budget revenue of about 7% at the beginning of this year.