ICE Cotton Price Is Still Low.

The 1601 month contract of Zheng cotton futures rose 65 yuan on Wednesday, closing at 12550 yuan, closing about 121 thousand hands and holding about 345 thousand hands.

On the spot, China's cotton price index 3128B cotton index yesterday fell 13065 points, down 2 points, cotton spot prices were stable and weak, textile production gradually moved to the peak season, and the demand for all cotton yarn has improved somewhat, but the degree of recovery is still not enough to have a clear and positive impact on the market.

Yarn stock is still large.

New cotton concentrates listed

It is a foregone conclusion that domestic spot price is under pressure and whether the downstream demand can be improved is the focus of the market.

Zheng cotton futures low adjustment, the price center of gravity moved upward, but the lack of uplink strength, the 1601 month contract resistance above 12800.

ICE

Futures rose on Wednesday and the most active December contract fell 0.36 cents, closing at 62.92 cents. Cotton prices recovered part of Tuesday's gains, trading volume was significantly lower than yesterday. Friday, the US Department of agriculture will announce monthly supply and demand reports in September. The monthly US report on cotton production and year-end inventory data in August is much lower than expected. The inventory data at the end of the year have also been lowered, and the 8 monthly report has made the market unexpected.

On Wednesday, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell, and the commodities failed to extend the strength of the previous day.

ICE cotton price is still a low level overall adjustment, the market structure has not changed, the trend is empty.

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What is the specific output of cotton in 2015 in Xinjiang? Xinjiang cotton has just entered the picking season. At present, the specific output is not good enough to judge. But according to the statistics of the relevant government agencies last year, we can roughly estimate.

According to the statistics of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region agriculture department, in 2014, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang reached 29 million 670 thousand mu, of which the basic farmers' planting area reached 17 million 860 thousand mu, and the agricultural production and operation units reached 11 million 810 thousand mu, and the total output of cotton reached 3 million 100 thousand tons.

In 2015, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang was reduced by 4 million 790 thousand, and the area decreased by 16.1%.

If the average yield per square metre of cotton in Xinjiang is calculated in 2014, the reduction in 2015 will be estimated at around 500 thousand tons (the specific calculation is 3 million 100 thousand tons, 29 million 670 thousand mu * 4 million 790 thousand mu).

In April 16, 2015, at the two session of the three session of the China Cotton Association, the general manager of the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps, the general manager of the cotton and hemp company, said that the cotton output of the Corps reached 1 million 760 thousand tons in 2014.

According to the statistical results released by the Bureau of statistics of the Corps, as of June 25, 2015, the cotton planting area of the Corps was 9 million 150 thousand mu, a decrease of 1 million 350 thousand mu from the previous year and a decrease of 12.9%.

According to the cotton yield per mu in 2014, the output of cotton in the Corps was about 230 thousand tons (the specific calculation method was 1 million 760 thousand tons * 10 million 500 thousand mu * 1 million 350 thousand mu).

On the whole, the total area of cotton in Xinjiang and the regiment decreased by 6 million 140 thousand mu, with a reduction of about 15.3%, and the total yield reduction is expected to be about 730 thousand tons, with a reduction of about 15%.

There are two factors to explain this: first, the predicted reduction is too large.

Because it is calculated according to the average yield per mu, but the actual situation is that the area of Xinjiang's reduction is mainly based on low yield and secondary cotton fields. Two, Xinjiang experienced a rare high temperature in August this year, though cotton production is still higher than last year or even.

Therefore, this year's cotton production in Xinjiang is unlikely to be reduced to millions of tons, as predicted by some people, only under 730 thousand tons.

The above theoretical data are only personal predictions of the author, and the actual figures are based on the figures issued by the relevant statistical organizations.

If the yield reduction data plus the number of cotton production in the mainland is reduced, it may boost the cotton market this year.