Surplus Pattern Is Still PTA Price Center No Major Changes.

In recent years, the focus of crude oil prices has shifted sharply, due to the slowdown in global economic growth, the oversupply of crude oil and the strengthening of the US dollar. A comprehensive agreement on negotiations on the Iran nuclear issue in mid July marks the gradual lifting of all sanctions against Iran's economy. Therefore, in the case of global oil supply surplus, the market expects OPEC crude oil production to hit a new high.

At the end of August and early September, with the sharp rebound of crude oil and the centralized maintenance of petrochemical plants, PTA showed the trend of V reversal, and there was a strong signal in technology. Earlier, Iran had stated that Iran could immediately increase its crude oil exports by 500 thousand barrels / day after the lifting of sanctions, and will increase oil output at any cost. This will further exacerbate market surplus and suppress oil prices.

On the last few trading days in August, the market reversed and crude oil rebounded sharply. On the one hand, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) adjusted the survey method in the monthly report on oil and gas production, and reduced the estimate of oil production for half a year. OPEC The report said it was prepared to discuss production issues with other oil producing countries. Recently, the International Energy Agency's monthly report on the oil market in September predicted that the supply of non OPEC would sharply decrease.

In any case, after the oil price dropped to an absolute low of 40 - 50 US dollars / barrel, the space and duration of the drop were very limited. However, there is no substance in the main producing country. Production reduction behavior In addition, Iran's output growth expectations remain unchanged. The overall short-term supply and demand pattern of crude oil will not improve significantly. Based on this, we believe that the overall price of oil will remain between 40 and 60 US dollars per barrel. It will also be decided. PTA The overall operating range of the price center of gravity.

In fact, as oil prices fell again, the number of us online drilling continued to decline. According to data released by Beck Hughes, an oilfield service agency, as of September 11th, the number of oil well drilling wells in the United States was 652, 10 fewer than the previous week, a decrease of 940 from the same period last year.

The total number of wells on the US is still about 60% lower than the October 2014 high. The output of the United States has been decreasing since May, and the number of drilling lines has been decreasing since November 2014. The output of Nii is not equal to the loss of old wells. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a report last week that the US crude oil output in August dropped 140 thousand barrels to 9 million 600 thousand barrels, a record low of nearly a year, and said that low oil prices could cause us crude oil production to continue to decline before the end of 2016.