PTA Is Facing A Resumption Of Production Expected To Cover Or Intervene.

PTA industry load increased slightly this week than last week, but it is still at a low level. The whole TA market remains at a tight balance between supply and demand.

This week, the PTA industry started to recover from a low of 53.1% last Friday to 57.4% at present, and the recent trend of seasonal demand recovery has increased. The polyester factory operation rate has risen from 76% of last week's low point to 79.2%, but the terminal Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load has dropped slightly this week, down 2% to 69% compared with the last week's ring ratio.

And from the market outlook, but in late September, the TA market will be expected to resume production, and the TA industry will increase by about 10% to 65%.

Therefore, in view of the current

The gap should not be reported with optimism.

From the perspective of profit structure, PX industry profits have shrunk after this week.

Industry profits have improved significantly, and the price center of the PX market has shifted further downward, from the first 800 yuan per ton in early September to the 780 dollar / tonne line.

The PX- naphtha spreads have moved down from the high point of 400 US dollars per ton to the current US $360 / ton, and profits have dropped significantly, but they are still in a small profit stage.

At present, the processing fee of TA is 600 yuan / ton. Dachang has been in a small profit stage, and is at a high level this year, and we think it will cause hedging and pressure period price.

In the short term of commodity fundamentals, we do not recommend investors to rebound. In the medium term structure, the surplus supply and demand structure of TA market is still in existence, and the market is still empty. It is suggested that investors should deal with the idea of selling short positions in a small position.

Upstream

This week, thanks to the unexpected drop in US crude oil inventory data, the US crude oil has rebounded significantly.

According to EIA data from the US energy information administration, crude oil inventories fell by 2 million 100 thousand barrels in the week ending September September, of which Cushing stocks dropped by 1 million 900 thousand barrels, the largest decline in more than a year.

Data also showed that crude oil production in the United States has been declining for sixth consecutive weeks, with a daily drop of about 0.2%.

However, the increase in product oil storage was greater than expected, which briefly suppressed the rebound in crude oil prices.

But from the perspective of the whole market, the market is not optimistic about the prospects of crude oil.

Despite declining production in the US, OPEC has maintained its position of not reducing production to compete for market share.

At present, the peak season of seasonal demand for crude oil has ended. The worries about the stock expansion of crude oil, the high possibility of global output and the possibility of Iran's resumption of crude oil exports have not yet subsided, and the slowdown in China's growth threatens the demand for crude oil.

Among them, Goldman is the most pessimistic about crude oil.

Goldman Sachs said Thursday that the prospect of oversupply of crude oil would keep oil prices low in the future, while oil prices could fall to $20 a barrel.