A Shares Are Expected To Rebound After The Holiday

Despite the weakening effect of deleveraging, the stock market before the festival is still in the doldrums.

Lv Changshun, chairman of Beijing's great master Zhi Meng Cci Capital Ltd, analyzed that from the perspective of the rule of A shares, the volume of pactions every year before the national day will be greatly reduced, and in the absence of major bad profits, the funds will return to the market, A shares or short-term market.

As the market has the best liquidity at the beginning of each year, the rise may be maintained until the first quarter of next year.

For the fourth quarter trend, the peak thinks that the approximate rate will still maintain the bottom shock situation, but the influence of external disturbance factors such as deleveraging can basically eliminate the market paction and return to the basic judgment.

The time limit for clearing funds outside the field is approaching, the impact of deleveraging on the market is obviously weakened, and favorable factors are gradually accumulating.

Fund industry sources said that the volume of market volume before the National Day was mostly reduced, and the probability of the structural market in the fourth quarter was larger.

Cai Jianjun, deputy general manager of the research and Development Department of the Chinese business fund, said that although the market sentiment has not fundamentally improved, the short-term favorable factors are increasing, mainly due to the fact that the deleveraging process is coming to an end.

The structured products of bank allocation are about 800 billion yuan, and the size of OTC assets is about 1 trillion and 800 billion yuan, which is relatively controllable relative to the 88 trillion and 700 billion yuan of bank credit balance.

The rapid decline of the two scale has dropped from 2 trillion and 200 billion yuan in early June to about 900 billion yuan now, and the follow-up may fall back to 600 billion yuan to 700 billion yuan.

This process is accompanied by gradual risk clearing.

In addition, at present, the relative profit of products in the market is neutral, the position of absolute income products is very low, and the strength of some short selling stocks has obviously failed.

Gao Feng, deputy general manager of North China Ruifeng fund, believes that the general position of the public offering partial stock fund is generally light, and a few of the positions are over 90%, while the positions in the 20%-30% and below 20% are different.

On the whole, the number of public fund raising on the right side will be more than that of the left side, and the majority of the left side will not be able to capture the certainty opportunities until the market is out of the "decent rebound" and "stabilizing" signals.

In contrast, private placement is now lower, and if the market goes well, it will probably play a more significant role in boosting the market.

There are also people in the industry who believe that the liquidation of securities trust, or the process of deleveraging of A shares, may also bring the last fall before the A share market rebounded.

But with the return of funds after the festival, the market will have a larger probability of a rebound.

Data show that as of September 25th, the public offering partial stock fund position decreased by 1.67%, the current position is 69.01%.

Among them, the positions of equity funds and mixed funds are 86.17% and 67.63% respectively, and the positions of public funds are in the middle level.

According to incomplete statistics of financial management on the grid, as of September 20, 2015, a total of 111 private placement products were issued in September, which were significantly lower than those issued in the same period in August, of which 66.67% of the stock strategy products accounted for 66.67%.

For this figure, private equity people said that the role of incremental funds on the market may not be too obvious, but the stock will become a new round of rising kinetic energy.

Cai Jianjun described future investment strategy with "taking advantage of the situation, Ming Tao and excellent skills". He emphasized the importance of seizing the general trend of economic structural pformation in the long and medium line layout, which is manifested in three aspects: consumption upgrading, technological innovation and system reform.

For example, the upgrading of consumption can focus on food, clothing, housing, high-end medical care, mobile social networking and educational tourism. Technological innovation is mainly focused on the Internet, especially the subversion of mobile Internet to traditional industries.

Cloud computing, intelligent terminals, business model innovation and so on. Institutional reform can focus on state-owned enterprise reform, factor price reform, private capital opening and asset securitization in military industry.

According to statistics of financial research on the grid, many private placement has recently been adjusted.

As far as possible, avoid frequent short line operations, and some of the better theme opportunities are still being gradually laid out, and the reform of state-owned enterprises has become the focus of attention.

The private sector, such as Shibei, Xingju and seiyao investment, said that the landing of the series of state-owned enterprise reform plans has become the focus of its next step; and the industry stocks that have favorable policy expectations and the targets that will benefit directly in the reform of state-owned enterprises in the future will be shared; and the investment value of the theme will continue to highlight with the advance of the supporting rules and the reform of local state-owned enterprises. Kai Shi investment believes that Beijing and Shanghai, as the pioneers of reform, deserve the attention of investors.