PTA Supply Will Pick Up Gradually After Mid November.

At the end of August and early October, when the Venezuela appealed for oil producing countries to cut production and Russia's strong involvement in Syria, the international oil price had a two wave of rebound.

But at present, these two factors are falsified by the market.

First, in October 21st, OPEC failed to reach any agreement on crude oil production reduction with the technical meeting of petroleum experts held by non OPEC countries in Vienna.

This means that there will still be fierce market share competition between OPEC oil producing countries and non OPEC oil producing countries, and the supply side is difficult to form effective reduction. Secondly, Russia has called on Syria to hold elections last weekend, releasing the signal of resolving Syria issue through political means, and Syria's risk of war spillover is weakened.

Therefore, the two factors that support the crude oil market rebound in the early stage will disappear, and the international crude oil market will return to the market environment dominated by supply and demand and financial factors.

I believe that the late international oil price will be supported by seasonal demand recovery, but the trend of oversupply will continue, and crude oil will still oscillate and weaken.

In the first three quarters of this year,

The year-on-year growth rate was above 8%, higher than that of the same period last year, but China's textile and garment exports declined for the 10 consecutive month.

At present, the downstream textile orders are scarce. Before the end of the year, the market is pessimistic about the terminal demand. It is expected that polyester production will gradually decline after October, and then the demand for PTA will be negative.

In addition, after November, Yisheng PTA device restart, terminal demand weakened, will lead to

Re-enter the increase in inventory cycle.

Recently, Sinopec's acquisition of Tenglong aromatics up to 80% stake in the news spread in the industry.

Judging from the information from all sides, Tenglong aromatics is more likely to be accepted by SINOPEC. Taking into account more specific negotiations and the more complicated game between buyers and sellers, Tenglong aromatics and the 4 million 500 thousand ton PTA equipment of Xiang Lu Petrochemical Company are less likely to be put into operation during the year.

Against this background,

Leading enterprises will continue to take overhaul plan to boost the spot market.

Among them, Yisheng Dalian 3 million 300 thousand tons PTA plant plans to overhaul the weekend, and the November contract cargo reduced by 10%.

In short, Yisheng Petrochemical constantly receives goods in the spot market to tighten the supply side, and PTA spot prices rise.

However, as of last Friday, PTA's cash flow reached its highest level this year, 700 yuan / ton.

In addition to the PX security check of the port and the PTA facility's parking service at the end of the month, some 600 thousand tons of small and medium PTA factories are in the restart state. The 3 million 300 thousand ton PTA installation in Yisheng Dalian will also be re opened in mid November.

Therefore, the supply of PTA will gradually increase after mid November.