Polyester Enterprises Loss, Downstream Consumption Weakened

The end of the "golden nine silver ten" peak season is not prosperous, downstream consumption performance is not warm, the polyester industry is difficult to pass the high cost down, resulting in the processing profit of the industry is compressed. At present, most polyester enterprises are in a state of loss, and polyester polyester stocks are at a high level in the second half of the year. Therefore, it is estimated that the starting rate of polyester industry will not increase on the current basis, which means that the consumption of PTA may decline. The pressure of weak consumption is gradually transferred to the upper reaches, which limits the space for PTA prices to go up.

The author believes that on the one hand, the tight supply situation supports PTA prices in the short term, which has brought a long lost processing profit to the industry. However, the improvement of processing profit has also become a potential negative effect, and the production enthusiasm of enterprises has improved accordingly. After the middle of November, the resumption of yam's equipment will gradually alleviate the shortage of supply. On the other hand, the PTA price is strong, so that the polyester industry profits are compressed, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is reduced, and the demand for PTA in the future market may be reduced, thus limiting the uplink of PTA prices, so PTA has little chance of rising trend.

Since April, the operating rate of domestic PTA industry has basically run below 70%, especially since July, with an average operating rate of only about 62.5%, and the PTA device for long-term parking is above 10 million tons. Despite overcapacity, the actual supply remains tight. Equilibrium state The pressure of overcapacity has been temporarily alleviated.

Since August, PTA Social inventories continue to decline. The CCFEI report shows that in the past two months, PTA's monthly social inventory dropped to 200 thousand tons. Although the PTA spot is becoming increasingly tense, it has made the PTA price weak before it changed. With the improvement of the living conditions of the industry, PTA processing enterprises gradually turned from a large loss in July to a small loss. At present, most enterprises have made profits. This is the most important factor in the current market, but it is also a potential negative.

It is understood that in October 25th, Yi Grand 3 million 750 thousand tons of PTA device was scheduled to stop and repair, but to ease the recent market PTA supply tensions, the device will drive ahead of schedule. In addition, in addition to long-term parking of the Far East petrochemical, Xiang Lu petrochemical and some small devices, only the 600 thousand ton PTA device of the Jialong petrochemical company stopped at the end of October, and the restart time was uncertain. Other devices were basically operating normally.

Although the information on Monday revealed that due to the failure of key equipment, Yanda's 3 million 750 thousand ton device could not be driven on schedule, and the market was postponed until mid November. At present, PTA Operating rate At a low level of around 60%, short-term profits will continue. However, after mid November, the supply of PTA will increase significantly with the restart of Yanda grand device, and the good effect of spot cash will gradually weaken.