Cotton Prices Continue To Be Empty, How Can The Market Structure Break Through?

At present, it is the textile off-season, the demand is difficult to have a big boost. Zheng cotton futures rebounded slightly in the low position in recent years. It is expected that such a rise will be difficult to maintain. It is suggested that the operation should not be followed up, and the market as a whole will remain unadjusted.

ICE cotton price rose slightly on Wednesday, the most active March contract rose 0.27 cents, closing at 62.94 cents, while in December it fell slightly, and the market was weak and strong.

The trading contracts made the contracts different, and the overall adjustment remained low.

Rainfall and foggy weather in some parts of the planting belt have a certain effect on cotton harvest, which delays harvesting and processing, but has not caused major obstacles.

The main concern of the market is the impact on cotton production and quality. There may be gaps in the supply of high-quality cotton and high-quality cotton. There is also a situation in China. The demand for quality cotton is constant and the price is also strong. This has some support for cotton prices to a certain extent. The weak side of ICE cotton futures has slightly improved, but the upward drag is still greater. The short-term resistance of the March contract is near 65 cents.

Futures 1605 month contract fell slightly on Wednesday, down 25 yuan, closed at 11970 yuan, traded about 164 thousand hands, holding about 339 thousand hands.

Spot spot, China cotton price index 3128B cotton newspaper 12949 points, up 2 points, Xinjiang cotton price advantage is obvious, the Yellow River River Basin real estate cotton impact, sales sluggish, recent textile enterprises purchasing replenishment market pactions increased, but the procurement is mostly small batch, in order to reduce market risk, most enterprises still insist on the strategy of buying and buying, cotton yarn trading downturn, price adjustment, the upstream and downstream market has no fundamental change.

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According to customs data, in October this year, China's textile and apparel exports were 23 billion 660 million US dollars, down 10.9% compared to the same period last year, of which 9 billion 210 million US dollars in textile exports decreased by 5.5%.

In 1-10, textile and apparel exports totaled 234 billion 980 million US dollars, down 5.4%.

In addition, 1-10 months in 2015, China imported 1 million 999 thousand and 600 tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 22% over the same period last year.

It is predicted that the number of imported yarn will reach 250-280 tons in 2015/16, which will pose a greater threat to the survival of domestic yarn.

Some pessimists think that in the next 1-2 years, the pressure of spinning enterprises will be greater and their living space will be narrower.

In November 17th, the price of pure cotton combs 32S and 40S of a spinning enterprise in Jining, Shandong was 20500 yuan / ton, 22300 yuan / ton, respectively, which was 100 yuan / ton lower than that of yesterday. Combing 32S and 40S prices were 23700 yuan / ton and 25500 yuan / ton respectively, compared with yesterday.

However, according to manufacturers, recent pactions generally require downstream cash payment and refuse credit, but the actual negotiating space has increased to 200-300 yuan / ton.

"Now the price of conventional yarns is very weak, and enterprise inventories are growing very fast."

In November 17th, a textile manufacturer in Changzhou, Jiangsu, reflected that the price of domestic conventional yarn was weak and difficult to sell recently. The price of combed 21S and 32S was 18400 yuan / ton and 19900 yuan / ton respectively. Combing 21S and 32S prices were 22200 yuan / ton, 23400 yuan / ton line, which was basically flat compared with last week, but the price difference with the same imported yarn is still larger.

As of November 17th, the number of imported yarn in Zhangjiagang continued to grow, estimated to have reached 2.8-3 million tons, and the phenomenon of "expanding warehouse" appeared in the bonded area.

In November 17th, the price of India C21S and C32S knitted A yarn was 17200-17500 yuan / ton, 18900-19200 yuan / ton respectively. The price of the high matching A+ yarn was 300-400 yuan / ton, and the difference between the inside and outside cotton yarn was maintained at 700-1000 yuan / ton.

According to market feedback, first, since November, China's main port imported yarn "more goods, less shipment", the bonded area inventory increased to more than 120 thousand tons, the storage capacity pressure is very large; two, high OE yarn arrivals growth, low OE yarn slipped, such as Vietnam South America Cotton OE21S, 30S, 32S and other rising, some weaving factories, garment factories to save costs, the use of high matching OE yarn instead of ring spinning C21S, C32S, forming a greater impact on domestic yarn.

Cotton yarn has a light and high season. In November, cotton yarn entered the off-season. Recently, many enterprises reflected the reduction of yarn sales and orders.

In November 17th, the head of a 300 thousand spinning enterprise in Weifang, Shandong said that, first, there was no obvious improvement in the coarse yarn orders, and still maintained about 80% of the initial operating rate, especially in the downstream enterprises.

Their enterprises' combs, combed 21S and 32S stocks increased to 21 days, and air spinning 10S, 16S and 21S inventory increased to 18 days.

Two, fine yarn orders are still dominated by old customers, and some of them are reduced.

The inventory of combed 60S and 80S produced by their enterprises increased by 1-2 days to 14 days.

"High count yarn production is facing more problems this year, and the road to survival is even more difficult."

The 1 market participants said, first, the pressure from raw materials.

This year, quality cotton is hard to find. Recently, the number of newly upgraded cotton with grade 2128B or above has moved to Shandong, and the price has increased rapidly.

In November 17th, in Ji'nan, Qingdao and other places, the quality of Xinjiang cotton picking spot should be increased by 200-300 yuan / ton, or even 500 yuan / ton on the basis of the original price.

Two, the quality of long staple cotton is poor.

In particular, the length of wool is mainly 35mm and 36mm, and the value of C2 is the mainstream. Even the cost of spinning fine yarns increases, and the quality of products decreases.

Three, as the weather turns cold, fine yarn enters the "off-season" off-season, and the market demand decreases.