Stock Market Outlook: Structural Victory After Strong Shocks

Experienced a strong shock in the past two weeks, the market partially digested the three quarter paction intensive areas and the late autumn market profit plate pressure, next week is expected to continue to go up.

(1) the main logic of the current round of intermediate market still exists, that is, under the background of relatively stable exchange rate expectations, there are more money and "asset shortage".

Positive, so the market trend continues.

(2) the rhythm of the intermediate round rally continues to be maintained: the platform is sorted out and picked up.

This round of intermediate market quotations in the first half of the "love in late autumn" market rhythm is not continuous, but rather high, concussion and ready to go up.

After the beginning of winter, the market will be able to get a strong structural shock rather than a decent adjustment.

Short term disturbance factors still exist, but the risk is not large.

(1) IPO is still the old method. The first 10 companies expect to freeze 1 trillion, which has little effect.

(2) the Fed raised its interest rate in December by "PRICE IN". After the first increase in historical interest rates, the US dollar index fell and the emerging market stock market performed better.

(3) whether RMB can successfully join the SDR at the end of the month deserves our attention. The current consensus expectation is optimistic.

Focus on growth and theme, strengthen trading to do band.

Strengthening the paction can get more excess returns in the next stage. Before the short term three quarter of the paction intensive area has not been effectively broken, the index shock is inevitable. However, the systemic risk is not large.

The second half is not yet over.

After all, under the background of "too much money and shortage of assets", at least high-quality emerging growth stocks and thematic investments will continue to be active.

The rebound trend continues, but the characteristics of market interpretation have changed before and after winter.

"Love in late autumn" market is actually based on the expected inflation under the background of inflation, the effect of making money is strong.

After the winter, the market is more characterized by structural features. The limited number of industries and subjects is extremely hot, and the rest of the stocks are actually not good enough to make money.

We use all A share interval median yield to make money effect, "love in late autumn" market from the index low to November 8th, the median rate of return is 30.5%, and November 8th to date only 4.3%.

Therefore, the rebound effect after the beginning of winter is far less than the "love in late autumn". Therefore, investors need to have a steady mentality and reduce the expected rate of return.

(1) the upward trend of the market index is still staggering.

On the one hand, the scale of incremental capital admission is limited, regulatory policies control financing leverage, on the other hand, the stock market of the early stage, such as brokerages, insurance and other large value stocks, has driven the index into the three quarter of the paction intensive area, making the market continue to rise for stronger demand for capital. At the same time, with the retreat of the brokerage sector fever, it is necessary to explore new leading plate to pull the index of the stock market. If only through the rotation effect of the large cap stocks, the three quarter will be inevitable.

(2) small and medium sized growth stocks are still the main battleground of the market. However, they are still reminded that they should not be complacent. They suggest paying attention to the short-term risk return ratio and controlling the risk of withdrawal.

The growth trend of growth stocks represented by the growth enterprise market has been improving for a long time. But after a sharp rebound in the past two months, especially after the recent new stock market, the new themes and new stories of various "tall buildings", we need to reduce the expected rate of return.