"One After Another" In The Post Crisis Era Of Foreign Trade

The pattern of negative growth in foreign trade is hard to reverse all year round.

Near the end of the year, foreign trade data showed no obvious improvement.

According to customs data, China's trade surplus reached 2 trillion and 990 billion yuan and expanded 75.3% in the first 10 months.

Behind the "surplus" is not the strong return of exports, but the decline in import and export volume.

In contrast, the safe account shows that China's current account surplus was $63 billion 400 million in the three quarter, the deficit of non reserve financial account was $223 billion 900 million, and foreign exchange reserves contracted by 160 billion 600 million US dollars.

The last two data set a historical record on absolute scale.

Structural adjustment and mode change

According to the latest figures, the total value of China's imports and exports in the first 10 months was 19 trillion and 930 billion yuan, down 8.1% from the same period last year.

Among them, exports were 11 trillion and 460 billion yuan, down 2%; imports 8 trillion and 470 billion yuan, down 15.2%.

A number of industry analysts said that the export growth rate was positive during the year.

Zhao Zhongxiu, vice president of University of International Business and Economics and Deputy Secretary General of k> International Trade Association of arachi, told the financial weekly magazine that according to the current foreign trade data, the import and export targets set at the beginning of the year were hard to reach due to the poor internal and external environment.

However, according to the figures released this year, the share of China's import and export trade in the world trade has increased slightly.

Compared with the first half of 2015 and the first three quarters, the growth rate of import and export slowed down in the first half of October, and the export growth rate also changed from positive growth in the first half to negative growth.

A number of interviewed industry analysts said such performance was basically within expectation.

In an interview with the finance and economics weekly, Wang Jianhui, a securities analyst, said that the fourth quarter's foreign trade situation was not optimistic, but it would be faced with a seasonal rebound in consumption growth.

Even so, the pattern of negative growth in foreign trade throughout the year is hard to reverse.

According to the data of the General Administration of customs, before October,

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The 3 types of labor-intensive products all showed negative growth, while the exports of the 3 categories of products decreased by 7%, 1.4% and 4.7%, respectively.

In addition, steel exports also fell by 6.6% over the same period last year.

In the first 10 months, China's general trade imports and exports were 10 trillion and 870 billion yuan, down 7.3%, accounting for 54.6% of our total foreign trade value, up 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year.

Over the same period, China's processing trade imports and exports reached 6 trillion and 260 billion yuan, down 10.6%, accounting for 31.4% of our total foreign trade value, down 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year.

In response, Xing Houyuan, vice president and researcher of the international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, explained to the "finance and economics weekly" that this year's trade surplus accounted for a year-on-year increase in the share of GDP growth, which is inseparable from the upgrading of China's traditional import and export and the pformation of processing trade.

Through the pfer and upgrading of the low-end manufacturing industry in recent years, the trade value-added has been effectively increased, and of course inevitably led to a decline in exports such as textiles, toys and plastic products. The continued decline of S K is a microcosm of the overall impact of trade pformation and upgrading on the economy.

When the reporter integrated the import and export data released by the local business, customs and statistics departments in the first three quarters, we found that the total import and export volume of 22 regions in the whole country decreased year by year, and 11 places dropped beyond the national level.

In addition, Henan's imports and exports were bright, with an increase of 21.2%, ranking first in the country.

In the first three quarters, the central region exported 126 billion 400 million US dollars, an increase of 0.3% over the same period last year.

The 4 provinces grew year by year, while Henan and Hubei increased by 14.6% and 14.3% respectively. Hunan grew by 9.3% and Shanxi grew by 6.6%.

In response to the bright spot in the central region, analysts and experts in the industry have said, "this is expected."

Since the implementation of the strategy of the rise of central China, the overall investment environment and pportation infrastructure in the central part of China has gone up to a great height, plus the advantages of the labor force in the central region, the reasonable land price, and the huge consumer market with huge potential for growth. These are the advantages of attracting foreign investment to set up factories.

Xing Houyuan also stressed that, especially recently, the Ministry of Commerce has launched a series of measures for the development of e-commerce in rural areas, which is an important measure to boost domestic demand.

Domestic demand has come up, and the market has been successful. It is more conducive to attracting foreign investment and setting up factories in the central region.

Many experts said that at present, traditional advantages are gradually disappearing in the pformation and upgrading of China's foreign trade, and there is a period of time lag in the process of emerging advantages and competitiveness.

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"Thriving" in the Post Crisis Era

Statistics show that the contribution rate of net exports to GDP growth is -1.8% in the first three quarters.

Over the same period, the contribution rates of consumption and fixed capital were 58.4% and 43.4% respectively.

Xing Houyuan said that with the further adjustment of China's industrial structure, enterprises' large-scale "going out" and high level of "Introduction" are not only exports but also the status of foreign trade in the "three carriages", which is a part of the pformation and upgrading of foreign trade.

Zhao Zhongxiu also believes that since China's economic development has entered the new normal, speed shifting has taken place, and the economic development mode has entered a period of connotative development. Besides the traditional "three carriages", the driving force of economic growth has been more derived from endogenous growth. For example, in the process of pformation and upgrading of processing trade, especially in traditional clothing industries, Shaoxing, Zhejiang, has gradually pformed from the relatively extensive production modes such as raw materials processing and subcontracting, and has increased investment in design, research and development.

The natural added value of garments produced is higher.

Similar cases are not uncommon in traditional large foreign trade provinces.

In the past, the image of low-end, cheap and low value-added processing trade has been reversed successfully.

In the global economic downturn, as the world's largest trading power, China's export growth rate of 6.1% has been far ahead of the world's average growth rate of 3%.

At present, the "gloomy" of China's export data is objectively derived from weak external demand.

However, the traditional trade partners of the United States and Europe have shown a mild recovery trend recently.

Although this recovery is very fragile, the overall growth rate of GDP at around 7% of the end of the year will still be positive.

Xing Houyuan told the financial weekly magazine that the external demand in the fourth quarter was relatively warmer and the domestic policy was delayed. For example, in the second half of the year, investment in infrastructure such as firepower was gradually increased. Therefore, based on the October foreign trade data, the annual GDP growth rate remained around 7%.