The Central Economic Work Conference Will Be Closed And Active Fiscal Policy Will Be Intensified.

As the highest level economic conference in the country, the central economic work conference has cleared the thread for the 2016 macroeconomic regulation and control. It is the five major task of next year to go to capacity, inventory, leverage, reduce costs and make up for the shortage of three.

On the means of regulation, the "positive fiscal policy + stable monetary policy" remains unchanged, but the connotation formulation has changed, and fiscal policy will play a greater role in macro regulation.

Feng Qiaobin, a professor of economics at National School of Administration, told the daily economic news reporter that the standard operation of positive fiscal policy is nothing more than three measures: increasing expenditure, reducing taxes and increasing debts.

At present, the deficit rate standard of 3% is the international standard. China's current deficit rate is about 2.1% to 2.3%, and there is 0.9 to 1 percentage points of space.

Next year is the beginning of the successful stage of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and the year of tackling structural reform. According to the central economic work conference, the general keynote of next year is still moving forward steadily.

Among them, traditional industries take the first place in production capacity, highlighting the urgency of the task.

As of November, China's PPI has been negative growth for 45 consecutive months, exceeding the negative growth record of the Asian financial crisis in 1997.

The report of the NDRC research group said that along with the downward trend of economic growth, the utilization rate of capacity has further decreased, and the difficulty of overcapacity has further eased, and the surplus industry has expanded potential.

Excess capacity leads to continuous deterioration of business efficiency.

Zhu Haibin, chief economist at JP Morgan, said that if the progress of the production process is too slow, the decline in labour productivity will not be reversed.

In fact, providing loans to zombie companies all year round will only squeeze financing for other companies, especially in emerging areas.

In addition, real estate has reappeared in the bulletin of the central economic work conference after 3 years, and has become one of the key tasks.

Its core is to dispose of real estate inventory.

A recent study by the Academy of Social Sciences shows that the contribution of real estate investment to economic growth has been tending to zero growth. In view of its series of industries in the whole economic operation, we must first digest inventory in the new and old power conversion period.

In the three quarter of 2015, China's GDP grew by 6.9%, slightly below 7%.

Zhu Haibin told reporters that in 2015, the GDP growth rate dropped from 7.3% in 2014 to 6.9%. The performance of manufacturing and service industries showed significant differentiation, indicating positive.

The adjustment is taking place, but at the same time, it also shows that the adjustment of over investment and overcapacity will undergo a painful process.

To accomplish the five major tasks of next year, the central economic work conference has clearly mentioned the five pillars of policy, and fiscal and monetary policies bear the brunt.

The active fiscal policy and the stable monetary policy remain the same, but the operation will be more focused, and the fiscal policy will play a more important role.

The meeting said that macroeconomic policy must be stable, which is to create a stable macroeconomic environment for structural reform.

The positive fiscal policy should be intensified and the tax reduction policy should be implemented.

At the same time, we should increase the necessary financial expenditure and government investment at the same time, which is mainly used to make up for the reduction of tax revenue and protect the government's responsibility for expenditure.

Feng Qiaobin also said that when the economy was down and the financial revenue was reduced, there was a rare "time window" for the comprehensive regulation of fees and government funds.

Experience has proved that under the enormous pressure of economic downturn and fiscal reduction, the necessity of reform is more prominent, and the consensus of reform is also easy to form.

The expansion of the deficit, which is widely appealed by the industry, has finally been achieved.

The economic blue book released by the Academy of Social Sciences this month suggests an increase of 500 billion deficit next year, of which 400 billion is the local deficit, so as to enrich the shortage of investment capital brought about by the tightening of local fiscal revenue.

The report said that the new deficit is mainly used for major national projects, cross regional and inter basin investment projects and key projects with strong externalities.

The report also recommends that the Central Committee be considered.

The scale of issuance should be increased, and the amount of issuance of local government bonds should be raised appropriately, and the debt replacement work should be continuously promoted in a timely manner, so as to reduce the pressure of local governments to repay debts, and further intensify efforts to revitalize stock funds and make overall plans for expenditures in key areas such as pportation, water conservancy and people's livelihood.

Reporters found that compared with last year's bulletin of the central economic work conference, this year's Conference on the formulation of positive fiscal policy not only clears the need for greater efforts this year, but also gives clear directions: reducing taxes and widening the deficit.

In a report this year, CICC pointed out that the weak economic growth in China is mainly due to the low willingness to invest in the corporate sector and the high tax burden in the corporate sector.

According to the report, China's narrow macro tax burden (accounting for social security contributions) accounted for 22.4% of GDP in 2012. However, if the general budget revenue, government fund income, total social security fund income and state-owned capital operating income were included, 2014 of the total Chinese government receipts accounted for 37% of GDP.

In terms of tax reduction, the meeting stressed that we should reduce the burden on enterprises' taxes and fees, further tax and fees, clean up all kinds of unreasonable fees, create a fair tax environment, and reduce the value-added tax rate of manufacturing industries.

To reduce social insurance premiums, we should study and streamline the "five risks and one gold".