This Year'S Exchange Rate Market Is The Biggest Winner Of The Dollar.

Although the US dollar rose less than last year's G3 currencies, such as the euro and yen, the dollar's rise against emerging market currencies and commodity currencies was significantly larger than that of last year.

One is worth thousands of bones.

The dollar is bullish, and commodities are empty.

This year, the US dollar index has risen from 90 to 100, and it has been trading around 97 in recent years, with an increase of about 8.8% in the year.

Over the same period, the Bloomberg commodity index, which measures the yield of 22 categories of commodities, fell by about 26% in 2015.

In 2008, the index fell by 37%.

Forecasters have predicted that commodity related currencies such as Canadian dollar and Norway kronor will perform best in 2015, resulting in a slap in the face of the collapse of commodities.

At present, the US dollar is gradually returning, and the selling tide of commodities has not stopped.

As of December 23rd, the US exchange traded fund (ETF) fund, which was linked to non energy commodities such as grain to metal, was outflowing 857 million US dollars, setting the highest outflow record.

The net value of these funds fell 26% as raw material prices fell to a 16 year low.

Hedge funds are expected to continue to fall, shorting gold, copper, corn and natural gas.

According to Bloomberg survey, analysts expect oil, grain and soybeans to rise next year, while precious metals such as gold are down or even.

This may mean that the currencies of Chile, pesos and Peru Saul, which are most closely related to industrial metals, will be further devalued, but the strong Canadian dollar will probably rise.

Analysts also agree that oil prices may rise next year.

The upward driving force that commodity currencies can derive from them may be very different.

For example, the Australian dollar is still facing huge downside risks under the pressure of mining depression.

The Canadian dollar has been further supported.

In addition, the recent price of iron ore has risen to above $40 per ton, but it still fell by nearly 11% in November, while the Australian dollar rose more than 1% in the same period.

Analysts believe that the current two factors support the strengthening of the Australian dollar, one is the demand of non-traditional investors for the unrelated assets of the economic cycle, and the two is the strong capital inflow of mergers and acquisitions.

However, they are not optimistic about the sustainability of the Australian dollar and expect a bigger drop.

These two factors are not enough to offset a new downward trend in commodity prices next year.

In the brief adjustment of the dollar and commodities, although

So far this month has fallen by more than 2%, but analysts expect the US dollar to continue to grow by nearly 10%.

It is especially noteworthy that the US dollar began to enter positions after a brief withdrawal.

Data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in December 27th showed that hedge funds and other large speculators increased their dollar positions in the past week, making the first increase in net weekly positions for the first time in four weeks.

Data show that in December 22nd, the US dollar net multi position reached 349144 contracts, compared with 322224 contracts a week ago.

Foreign exchange strategist Viraj Patel of Holland International Group (ING) said on Monday (December 28th) that although 2015 was a very difficult year for commodities and commodity currencies, such as Australian dollar and Niu Yuanhe Canadian dollar, commodity currencies in 2016 could still continue this pattern, and the Australian dollar was the worst performing.

The Australian Ministry of industry and science recently released a quarterly outlook to reduce the average price of iron ore in 2016 to $41.30 / ton from 51.20 US dollars / ton.

The National Australia Bank expects iron ore prices to fall to $30 / tonne.

Coehlo Callow, a senior currency analyst at Westpac, believes that the Australian dollar will fall to 0.68. against the dollar in March next year, Sean.

In addition, Bank of America expects low oil prices and possible further

The Canadian dollar will explore 68.9 cents in the first quarter of next year or return to 71.42 cents by the end of next year.

Nomura Securities Analysis said that considering the current commodity price and interest rate factors, the fair price of US dollar / Canadian dollar should be around 1.35.

From the point of view of the fair price of US dollar / Canadian dollar, commodity prices need to fall by 20% again, and the fair price of US dollar / Canadian dollar will go up to 1.40.

From the perspective of multiple analysts, as a whole, 2016 commodities.

A comeback is still facing three deadly points.

First, China's economic pformation will continue or maintain its bottom operation, which will restrain the rebound of commodity prices.

The two reason is to stabilize domestic and foreign financial markets. The RBA, the New Zealand Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada have limited space to further relax policies.

The three is the gradual opening of the Fed's rate hike.