Talking About The Stock Market, The Grey Swan Is Also Swan.

The black swan allusion is known to all.

Europeans did not see black swans before arriving in Australia, so the swans they knew were white geese. The emergence of black swans was a huge accident. By accident, they began to doubt about species differences. But in fact there was nothing wrong, not the color change, but they did not think of it in advance, or exactly, who had eaten enough to hold up to think of what has never happened before?

The black swan event is now rotten by everyone. There are generally three characteristics: one is accidents, the other two is significant, three is repentance, and everyone is Zhu Geliang after the event.

The grey swan is between the black swan and the big white goose. This concept should be easier for everyone to accept. The intermediate color is not so extreme. It is exciting and exaggerated. It is not true that it is false. It is also false to think of it. The former is a fluke psychology, and the latter is to avoid contradiction and reflection.

Some people say that the stock market crash did not occur to us, really?

It was not unexpected collapse, but unexpected that it had not yet run out and plunged.

Some people think that it is also a nonsense, which is a lot of nonsense in history. There will be a lot of history, but there will be many in the future. But such a sharp collapse has not happened before. Nor will it be in the future. Otherwise, the central government will not really save the gold and silver market. The scale will reach 1 trillion and 230 billion, which is equivalent to 5% of the free market capitalization. It can almost raise the cards and nationalize the A shares, which can be totally delisted. Do you think there is such a consequence?

Because everything is changing, although there are rules to follow, there will be butterfly effect, amplification effect and chaos effect in the development process. In the final analysis, they will lose control.

This is not a problem that good intentions can solve.

More interesting is that the same attitude towards registration system, retail investors and institutions is not the same, retail investors are generally worried, and institutions, especially brokerages, are relatively optimistic. Their optimism comes from their understanding of the registration system, that is, changing the name of the registration system, the name of the SFC registration system, and even the possibility of selecting the best. The IPO company launched is better than ever before to prove the rationality, superiority and success of the registration system. Specifically, the SFC will have a comprehensive grasp of the control of the issuing rhythm, and there will not be a rush to catch up. Li Daxiao has answered three questions in the forum's question session with one answer, that is, believing the SFC.

There are three points in the process of promoting registration system, especially noteworthy.

One is in this process, where does the gem go from? The gem is the leading bullion of the last bull market. It carries the dream of mass entrepreneurship and innovation. It is the hypothetical logic of the A share bull market in the economic downturn.

The two is Shanghai's strategy.

What's going on? The emerging board is actually the gem of Shanghai. According to historical judgement, the scale of the emerging board will not be small, the speed of issuance will not be slow, the intensity of the new market will not be weak, the bubble will only be bigger than the gem, and it is possible to go higher or higher or lower.

Third, the new three boards will switch to the gem, and the new three boards will be registered in 2015. There are 5000 in 2015, which is expected to increase substantially in 2016.

Whether it's new three boards or strategic emerging boards.

The biggest variable is the competition between the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Exchange. This is not only the competition between the two exchanges, but also the new round of the struggle between Shanghai and Shenzhen. The listed companies are resources, wealth, taxes, income, influence, competition, competition and competition, and the issuance of festivals will only get faster and faster. Ten thousand years are too long, seize the day and fight for profits, the SFC will not be able to co-operate and the market can bear multiple pressures. To make an optimistic effort and make pessimistic expectations, the result may not be disappointing, but conversely, blindly optimistic and reckless, the result may be disappointing.

About 80% of the brokerages predict that the fluctuation range in 2016 is between the 3000-4500 points of Shanghai Stock Exchange. This result is unlikely. The Shanghai composite is likely to have 4500 points or 3000 points. There is no black swan but only the swan.

We have no doubt about the SFC's determination and confidence in promoting the registration system. But we believe that the SFC will not control the index and control the index's common sense. If we simply believe in the belief of the SFC, we will be unable to cope with the stock market crash. We can not ask the SFC to endorse the listed company, and we can not ask the SFC to endorse the bull market. Of course, we can not ask the SFC to endorse the profit and loss for investors.