Cotton Prices Will Linger At The Bottom For A Longer Time.

At present, although the new cotton seed purchase and lint processing have entered the finishing stage, the pressing effect of new cotton listing on cotton prices has weakened, but the domestic cotton spot price is still at the bottom consolidation trend. This year's domestic cotton production shortage seems to have a limited effect on cotton price.

Reporters learned in the interview that domestic cotton output has been greatly reduced this year, which has been recognized by the market. At present, the purchase of seed cotton in Xinjiang and the mainland cotton region is coming to an end. Meanwhile, the psychology of cotton farmers reluctant to sell in the spring festival area has weakened.

In addition, domestic cotton yarn and other downstream cotton products prices are still in the doldrums. Textile enterprises are reluctant to hoard goods and replenish their stores.

At present, the mainstream purchase price of seed cotton market in Hebei, Cangzhou, Hengshui and Baoding is 2.85 - 2.95 yuan / jin (39% of lint and 10% of moisture regain), and cotton farmers sell cotton more positively.

The first reason is that the longer the seed cotton storage time is, the harder the quality is, the more difficult it is to ensure that the quality of cotton is stored in a simple shed. Cotton farmers are willing to sell the seed cotton before the Spring Festival. Two, from the prospect of the seed cotton purchase price trend, because the cotton mill will be shut down gradually, the market purchase needs to be reduced, the seed cotton price will decline, and the cotton farmers' holding up mentality will basically disappear. Three, some parts of Xinjiang will start issuing cotton target price subsidies, and the first cash standard is 1.2 yuan / kg, which will speed up the sale of cotton growers in Xinjiang area.

Local cotton ginning plants also sell lint in time.

Yang Zhijiang believes that the domestic cotton market for this year's shortage of new cotton production needs to be staged. If demand recovers slowly, then the enthusiasm of the market for the theme of the sale is limited under the influence of the national cotton store's selling expectations and huge inventory.

"It is expected that the national cotton reserves will be sold in 3 to July next year, but the selling price is not well established."

In the long run, demand remains the core factor determining the trend of domestic cotton prices.

It is considered that if the demand for the market increases in the future, then the domestic cotton price will rise.

If domestic demand continues to be sluggish, domestic cotton prices will not be optimistic. The market price of cotton will fluctuate around the selling price of national cotton reserves.

"This year, the reduction of new cotton production has been digested for the good price, and the cotton growers and ginning plants are actively shipping to increase market supply, seed cotton and cotton seed.

It is inevitable that prices will drop steadily.

Now the focus of the market is the number and price of future cotton sales.

There is a large stock of state-owned cotton stocks, and there may be a price sell-off in the future, which is an important factor affecting domestic cotton prices.

Yang Zhijiang, general manager of the business department of Shanghai Century Avenue, told futures Daily reporter that the quantity and quality of the domestic cotton, the cost of imported cotton and imported yarn and the quantity of the cost of the imported cotton are basically expected. The only bad expectation is the quantity and price of the selling of the national cotton.